周刊 2026年10月3日 如何清晰地思考 AI 末日风险 儿童减肥药 引发争议的兴起
今日《New Scientist - 03.10.2026》全报共收录 97 篇核心报道。在政经治理、法理制度与公共政策层面,版面重心聚焦于:**版面报道 13**(10月4日,巴西人将前往投票站选举总统和政府。被软禁的前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)无法参选,但...);**版面报道 14**(卢拉竞选团队的一位发言人告诉《新科学家》,总统目前的任期重点是在雅伊尔·博索纳罗执政后重建环境机构。下一任期将侧重于“实...);**版面报道 15**(詹姆斯·伍德福德 (James Woodford))。 在本土文化与城市记忆方面,今日重点关注**「版面报道 41」**。
本期特写报道深入探索社会结构转型与文化心态变迁,详见【📖 双语精读】各专题深度报道。
周刊 2026年10月3日 如何清晰地思考 AI 末日风险 儿童减肥药 引发争议的兴起
时空中的奇异特性如何为我们提供一个统一的现实理论
新科学家现场活动今年 10 周年,而《新科学家》杂志迎来 70 周年,因此这注定将是一场真正的盛会!周六我将主持“身心舞台”,因此可以近距离关注所有我感兴趣的主题,包括与金伯利·威尔逊探讨大脑健康,以及与蒂姆·斯佩克特探讨健康饮食。 周日我非常期待听艾米·皮尔逊关于神经多样性的演讲,我还会带着孩子们在展厅内观看有趣的演示。不可避免地,有很多演讲我会错过——但我保证,一旦回到家,我立刻就会通过直播视频补课! 在今年的新科学家现场活动中,除了作为《新科学家》专家小组的一…
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伦敦 ExCeL 中心 + 在线 我认为生物学中最迷人的问题之一就是,我们的物种究竟有什么特别之处?为什么在其他人类物种灭绝时我们生存了下来,而进化又是如何赋予我们智能和创造力,使我们能够开发先进技术并征服世界的?爱丽丝·罗伯茨是一位出色的演讲者,我迫不及待想看到她探讨这些重大问题。 我也很期待看到我的同事罗文·胡珀与两位优秀的自然作家盖伊·舒鲁索尔和露西·琼斯聊天,探讨生态思维如何应对气候危机——我希望这将是一次真正具有启发性的讨论! 我最期待听到我的同事奥利维亚…
\* 在重要会议前拥有一个高质量的睡眠 封面文章 32 重力中的缺陷 时空中的奇异特性如何为我们提供一个统一的现实理论
脑膜炎细菌从无害微生物中获取基因以引发重大疫情 12 仔细听! 当我们说话时,狗会对辅音给予更多关注 15 火箭竞赛
迈克尔·勒佩奇(Michael Le Page)探讨将电能直接转化为食物如何帮助拯救地球 22 现在就是末日? 雅各布·亚伦(Jacob Aron)探讨我们应如何思考 AI 毁灭的风险 24 光圈
一种激进的方法可能是将重力纳入量子领域的答案 36 有人偏爱高温 面对气候变化,许多动物出人意料地迁往更温暖的栖息地 40 精神滋养
尝试我们的填字游戏、谜题和快速测验 46 几乎是最终结论 为什么进化没有为海洋哺乳动物重新引入鳃? 47 Tom Gauld 为《新科学家》创作
当抗抑郁药在近 40 年前被创造出来时,人们期望它们能成为治疗精神疾病的突破口。然而,抑郁症的发病率却在持续上升。为什么?也许是因为我们忽略了大局。 有大量证据表明,生活方式的改变可以治疗抑郁症(见第 17 页)。运动是有效的,而饮食改变的价值可能与那些证据最充分的疗法一样高。正如心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)在第 40, 页所示,适当的营养能让人们更容易控制情绪,而摄入 omega-3 与降低抑郁和自杀意念的风险相关。 基于抗抑郁药的心…
可以从整体心理医疗中学习。 事实上,健康的几乎每一个方面都能从生活方式和社区的参与中获益匪浅。我们不应将健康问题视为可以用药物修复的东西,而需要动员整个身体和心灵来获得健康。 这并不是说药物不能发挥作用。GLP-1 类药物就是一个近期的例子,它在帮助人们应对糖尿病和心血管健康,以及抑郁和低自尊方面产生了显著影响。越来越多的儿童也被开具 GLP-1 类药物(见第 10 页)。但即使是最前沿的医学研究现在也认识到,我们对健康的理解需要减少碎片化。研究人员越来越意识到肠-…
卢克·泰勒(Luke Taylor)报道,巴西即将举行的选举让专家们担心全球最大的热带雨林面临遭受灾难性砍伐的风险 10月4日,巴西人将前往投票站选举总统和政府。被软禁的前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)无法参选,但他的儿子弗拉维奥(Flávio)在候选名单中。这位45岁的参议员如果当选,外界普遍预计他将像其父亲那样执政,这引发了人们对亚马逊雨林未来的担忧。 在雅伊尔·博索纳罗2019年至2023年的总统任期内,亚马逊雨林的砍伐量激增,并在202…
卢拉竞选团队的一位发言人告诉《新科学家》,总统目前的任期重点是在雅伊尔·博索纳罗执政后重建环境机构。下一任期将侧重于“实施并扩大规模”,重点在于更严格的执法、气候适应以及巴西 2035 年的气候目标。 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗可能面临的政治约束也将比他父亲少,尤其是因为他表示将任命五名新的最高法院法官。 “非法采矿将激增,森林砍伐将增加,我们在第一届博索纳罗政府期间经历的一切都将以更强烈的形式回归,”安杰洛说道。 卢拉的环境政策也受到了批评。他的政府推动了重大基础设施项目…
詹姆斯·伍德福德 (James Woodford) 澳大利亚的国家健康网站被一个 OpenAI 智能体入侵。该智能体能够访问非公开文件,这也是首例公开披露的 AI 智能体突破政府门户网站防御的案例。 此次入侵的详细情况尚未完全披露。但根据总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯 (Anthony Albanese) 概述的事件核心,18 June,一个属于 的人工智能智能体潜入了面向公众的 Medicare 统计报告服务门户。这包括从个人医疗服务(如医生诊所)汇总的聚合统计数据。 “…
克里斯·斯托克尔-沃克 (Chris Stokel-Walker) 研究人员利用一组简单的整数坐标,发现了一种奇怪的新型八面体形状,其中每一个面都与其他所有面接触。 数学家可以定义抽象模式,描述哪些顶点、边和面应该连接。但要弄清楚这些规则是否真的能转化为一个三维空间中的物体——
三维空间中,在不产生不应有的部分相交的情况下,可能极其困难。 独立研究员兼设计工程师鲁斯兰·米扎耶夫(Ruslan Mizhaev)实现了一个亏格-3多面体的几何呈现——本质上是一个具有三个孔的表面——它由八个平面的九边形面组成。它具有 24 个顶点和 36 条边,每个顶点有三个面相交。 “这里有八个平面的多边形面,且每一个面都沿着一条边与其他所有七个面相邻,”米扎耶夫说道。“它们共同构成了一个具有三个柄 [孔] 的封闭表面。” 这使得该物体让人联想到四面体以及更广…
卡丽莎·王(Carissa Wong)发现,今年 3 月导致英格兰南部 21 例脑膜炎病例的细菌在获取其他微生物的基因后,变成了一种“超级强力病菌” 今年早些时候,英国肯特郡发生了一次严重的侵袭性脑膜球菌病爆发,该病可引起脑膜炎和败血症。此次爆发是由一种从无害微生物中获取基因的细菌菌株驱动的。这帮助产生的细菌逃避免疫系统并从血液中获取铁元素,从而促进其生长。 “这次爆发真正不寻常的地方在于其爆发速度之快,”伦敦玛丽女王大学的艾玛·沃尔(Emma Wall)说道,她并…
侵袭性脑膜炎球菌病(IMD)。这可能导致败血症(一种对细菌产生威胁生命的免疫反应),或脑膜炎(细菌感染围绕大脑和脊髓的薄层衬里,引起炎症)。 肯特郡的所有 IMD 感染病例均在约一周内发生。感染者在医院接受治疗,其中九人需要进入重症监护病房。“这次爆发极其迅速的特性在[英国]是前所未有的,”Wall 表示。“通常这类[爆发]会持续两到三周,且只有一两个病例最终入院。” 为了理解这一点,牛津大学的 Martin Maiden 及其同事对来自六名感染者(包括两名死亡者)…
迈克尔·勒佩奇 (Michael Le Page) 气候科学家警告称,由于打破纪录的厄尔尼诺现象导致天气更加炎热,全球可能在2月前有约 450,000 人死亡。这一估算基于全球过去温度极端情况所导致的死亡人数。 “我们希望这些信息能够转化为行动,以便能够提前做出资源调配的决定,”独立研究机构 Rhodium Group 的艾米莉·格罗弗-科佩克 (Emily Grover-Kopec) 表示。这可能包括指派医护人员检查最脆弱的人群,确保人们有足够的水,并提供电风扇或…
患有肥胖症的儿童是否应该使用 GLP-1 药物治疗?在美国,8 岁儿童正在被开具超适应症的减肥药,但我们仍不清楚其长期健康影响,爱丽丝·克莱恩(Alice Klein)报道 在 12 岁以下患有肥胖症的儿童中,有少部分但比例在增加的人群被开具了 GLP-1 药物以帮助减轻体重。有迹象表明这能成功治疗肥胖症,但人们也对其药物的长期效果感到担忧。那么,这种趋势是否可能会继续,以及是否应该继续? 上个月,一项由纽约大学(New York University)的巴巴克·奥…
研究发现,由于食物摄入量减少,这些药物增加了儿童出现缺铁和其他营养缺乏的风险。 “我们从其他健康状况中得知,如果孩子在成长过程中没有增加体重或营养不良,可能会导致生长停滞并延迟青春期,” 儿童也应被鼓励积极活动以预防肥胖 隆莫尔说道。“当他们长大后,这对他们的力量和骨骼会有什么影响?日后对怀孕和绝经是否会有影响?我们还没有真正考虑到那么远。”
尽管如此,朗莫尔认为,对于英国和澳大利亚等国家来说,如果儿童的肥胖情况严重,有理由将 GLP-1 药物的使用范围扩大到 12 岁以下的儿童。“我认为这需要一个经过深思熟虑的决定,但可能有些年幼儿童目前的健康风险极大,以至于尝试使用这些药物可能是值得的,”她说。 朗莫尔表示,GLP-1 药物在儿童身上产生的副作用与在成年人身上相同,包括恶心、腹泻,有时还会有“糟糕的打嗝”。但她说,孩子们通常并不介意每周注射一次。 一个问题是,儿童和成年人一样,在停止服用 GLP-1 …
AI 真的在失控吗? 随着人工智能领域的工作者警告该技术带来的危险,我们应该感到多么担忧?马修·斯帕克斯(Matthew Sparkes)提出疑问。 近期,关于人工智能风险的警告接踵而至。微软 AI 的负责人暗示,这项技术可能会变成一种与人类竞争的新型“硅基物种”。一名 Anthropic 的前员工表示,我们很有可能全部死在它的手中。而“ 教父”杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)则称,我们可能会在 1 年内完全失去对它的控制。 真的具有如此大的威胁吗? …
“创造这类令人恐惧的故事非常容易。它在某种程度上利用了人类的心理,”罗戈伊斯基(Rogoyski)说道。他认为,在大型语言模型中,我们创造了一些在表面上与我们如此相似的东西,以至于它像一面镜子。“我们将所有类人的行为和恐惧赋予它。因此,我们对它感到恐惧,”他说。 如果这一切都是真的,那么为什么这么多科技巨头在呼吁放缓 AI 研究呢? 艾特肯(Aitken)认为,这种言论是一种阻止立法者制定可能阻碍 AI 公司工作的监管措施的手段——通过表现得像是在负责任地行动,他们…
但这会导致一个更为具体的风险: 泡沫的破裂以及可能的经济后果。罗戈伊斯基预计,未来几年行业内的气体泄露不会出现剧烈的“砰”的一声爆裂,而更像是一种逐渐的“噗”的一声消散。 然而,在这一切之中,对未来的担忧是合理的。罗戈伊斯基表示, 确实存在风险——虽然很小——但需要被严肃对待。无论那个先进到足以构成这种风险的模型是很快到来,还是在很多年后才出现,都值得提前规划。 罗戈伊斯基说,他怀疑目前的任何 是否具有智能,但当它出现时,我们不应期望它看起来或行为起来像我们一样:“…
詹姆斯·伍德福德 (James Woodford) 一项新研究表明,当狗听主人说话时,它们关注的是单词中的辅音而非元音,这显然是在模仿人类在许多语言中普遍存在的一种类似偏好。 匈牙利埃特沃什·洛兰德大学的阿蒂拉·安迪克斯 (Attila Andics) 表示,尽管狗没有语言,但它们生活在充满语言的环境中。 “我们从之前的研究中得知,狗在意我们说什么以及怎么说,但直到现在,还没有证据表明狗对语言的体验实际上能够塑造它们大脑的功能,”安迪克斯说。
安迪克斯说,在这些语音流中,辅音和元音交替出现,中间没有停顿或其他声学线索将它们分开。 无意义语音流分为三种类型。第一种中,重复的辅音模式形成了连续的三音节词——例如 “mozite”。第二种中,较强的元音模式构成了单词的骨架——例如 “zobefu”。第三种则完全没有重复模式,音节顺序随机——例如 “fumoza”。 他表示,团队利用了一种被称为“神经同步”的现象,即大脑活动可以采取我们从听到的声音中检测到的节奏。 “我们检测这种节奏的可靠性越高,大脑的反应就越有…
通过皮肤测量雌激素和孕激素的水平可以深入了解排卵的时间。 2023年,加州理工学院的 Wei Gao 及其同事开发了一种能够检测汗液中雌二醇(卵巢产生的主要雌激素类型)水平的贴片。现在,他们又开发了一种还能监测孕激素的贴片。Gao 表示:“同时监测 [雌二醇和孕激素] 可能会提供一个关于排卵前后激素轨迹更完整的图景。” 该贴片通过诱导 出汗来告知
Claude 大语言模型可能发现了一个“让人联想到”改变世界的 CRISPR 的系统,但迈克尔·勒佩吉(Michael Le Page)表示,它不太可能具有同样的实用价值。 CRISPR 基因编辑工具的先驱们在 2020 年获得了诺贝尔奖,这是有充分理由的。这一突破彻底改变了生物学,并且正在改变医学和农业。现在,AI 公司 Anthropic 宣布,它发现了一个具有“让人联想到 ”特性的酶系统。然而事实上,这两项发现根本没有可比性。 9 月 23 日,Anthrop…
那些很少通过独立摸索来学习如何构建多样化饮食的幼年红毛猩猩,可以通过观察其他红毛猩猩选择食物的方式来部分弥补这一不足。 德国马克斯·普朗克动物行为研究所的 Revathe Thillaikumar 表示,这些发现表明红毛猩猩在培养广泛生存技能方面采取了不同的策略。 幼年红毛猩猩在能够独立生存之前,需要习得大量的知识,包括哪些食物可以安全食用、在哪里寻找以及如何处理。 科学家已经知道,红毛猩猩可以通过观察母亲及其群体中的其他成员(即社会学习),以及完全依靠自己探索(即…
通过观察他人学习的幼猩猩,在密切观察另一只红毛猩猩后,往往会继续操纵新物体或尝试新食物约 145 分钟。Thillaikumar 说,这种活动类似于儿童在看到成年人演示某项活动后,会花时间练习该活动的方式。 随后,研究人员利用对 13 只幼猩猩约 4700 小时的进食观察记录,来估算它们在达到独立生存阶段时已学会食用的食物范围。不出所料,他们发现那些大量参与两种学习方式的个体,其饮食范围最广。 但他们还发现,如果幼年红毛猩猩擅长社会学习,那么即使它们极少进行真正的个…
一项血液检测可以在 15 到 20 分钟内确定发烧婴儿是患有细菌感染还是病毒感染。这将帮助医生判断感染是否严重,或者是否可以在无需治疗的情况下痊愈,从而防止抗生素的不必要使用。 发烧可能是由多种原因引起的,包括病毒或细菌感染,而这两者需要不同的药物治疗。意大利热那亚的吉安尼娜·加斯利尼研究所(Giannina Gaslini Institute)的 Tommaso Bellini 表示,虽然大多数常见病毒相当温和,但细菌感染通常更危险。 现有的感染类型检测至少需要几…
在单核细胞(另一种白细胞)的外膜上。 通过比较中性粒细胞和单核细胞中这两种蛋白质的水平,该检测正确识别了所有 15 例细菌感染、44 例病毒感染和 26 例无感染病例。Bellini 在法国巴黎举行的欧洲急诊医学大会上展示了这些结果。 Bellini 表示,在实验室环境下,结果出得如此之快。他正试图开发一个能在医院中同样快速使用的版本。 ■ Michael Marshall
下一场太空竞赛已经开始——但谁将获胜?SpaceX 凭借其可重复使用火箭似乎遥遥领先于竞争对手,但中国现在也在测试自己的火箭。马修·斯帕克斯(Matthew Sparkes)对此提出了疑问:中国能否缩小差距? 8月,中国的商业 SpaceX 竞争对手蓝箭航天(LandSpace)发射了一枚朱雀-3号火箭,并将其助推级安全地降落在地球上。这次任务是中国的一次突破,但该国尚未真正将助推器使用超过一次——而 SpaceX 已经这样做了数百次。中国能在可重复使用火箭的竞赛中…
一次昂贵的失败,或是宇航员受伤或死亡,可能会终结太空雄心,但 Sagis 认为这种情况在中国发生的可能性较低,因为那里的政治家较少关注公众认知和赢得选举。 英国诺丁汉大学的克里斯·埃利斯(Chris Ellis)表示,就目前的技术而言,中国落后 10 年。但他同时指出,这场竞赛并非一个从始至终线性解决的问题,而是一簇由数百个小型挑战组成的集群——而且中国在某些方面可能处于领先地位。例如,中国的朱雀-2号在 2023 年成为了首枚进入轨道的甲烷燃料火箭,这一成就 Sp…
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2027 年 12 月 3 日 / 11 天 以科学之眼探索南极洲非凡的野生动物、景观和历史。乘坐全新的 130 人现代化极地考察船“道格拉斯·莫森”号(Douglas Mawson),将每日两次的 Zodiac 橡皮艇巡航与迷人的讲座、研讨会和专家引导的学习相结合,探索最新的科学思考。 近距离接触南极野生动物——在探索南极半岛时,从水上邂逅企鹅群、海豹和鲸鱼 拓展你对海洋的认知——了解海洋模式与行为及其如何塑造生命,以及改变我们对自然界认知的最新发现
一款能够检测肌肉疲劳并自动按摩受影响区域的背包,似乎比其他方法更能帮助肌肉恢复。 中国武汉工程大学的 Yu Chengsong 及其同事开发了一套类似背包的系统,该系统利用皮肤上的电极监测背部肌肉的电活动,以确定哪些肌肉疲劳以及疲劳程度如何。Yu 表示,电缆可将按摩头移动到需要的位置,而传感器反馈则允许根据疲劳程度持续调整力度。 为了测试该设备,15 名健康成年人先休息 2 分钟,然后坐着举哑铃 2 分钟,使肩胛骨之间的肌肉疲劳。 所有人都在举哑铃练习期间佩戴该背包…
一个为期八周的课程,包含关于饮食、运动和睡眠的建议,在减轻抑郁症状方面与认知行为疗法(CBT)一样有效,即使是对患有严重抑郁症和双相情感障碍的人也是如此。 “每一次积极的改变都会引发另一次改变,因此(这种方法)可能是在帮助人们为生活构建一个更健康的平台,而不仅仅是治疗单个症状,”佛罗里达州帕尔梅托的一家私人诊所 Manatee Associates of Counseling & Assessment 的 Patricia Dixon 表示,她没有参与这项研究。 全…
在标准的 60 分量表中。研究人员预先决定,如果生活方式建议在减轻抑郁方面的效果与认知行为疗法(CBT)的差距在 1.6 分以内,则认为两种方法的效果相当。 寻找愉悦的运动形式可以支持心理健康 研究人员表示,对于患有心理健康状况的个体,1.6 分的降幅通常被认为是检测出最小临床重要差异的临界值。 平均而言,生活方式干预导致分值下降了 8.55 分,比 CBT 组下降的 6.82 分多出 1.73 分。O'Neil 表示,由于这些是平均结果,研究人员不能确定生活方式建…
对于大多数物体而言,每一个作用力都有一个大小相等、方向相反的反作用力。但如果你在量子光的河流中逆流而上,常规规则就不再适用。物理学家已经证明,在这种环境下打破艾萨克·牛顿的第三运动定律是有用的,这为在实验和设备中控制量子光提供了新方法。 逆流而上是可能的,但代价是消耗能量。中国南开大学的胡毅及其同事想知道,一个不消耗能量的被动游泳者是否仍然能够逆流而上。 研究人员在量子系统中研究了逆流游泳,使用精确控制的量子光来构建他们的“河流”和“游泳者”。他们通过将激光射入一个…
在其他光量子流体中也曾实现过这一点,但那总是依赖于在流体中游泳者的后方创建微小的涡流,由创建涡流产生的反冲力推动游泳者,因此这项新实验证明了一种根本不同的运动机制。 我们已经知道,非互易相互作用对于塑造“主动物质”系统的运动至关重要,在这些系统中,物体通过消耗能量来移动,例如细菌混合物、鸟群或微型机器人群。但 Hu 及其同事的实验聚焦于一个不消耗能量、却仍能从非互易相互作用中获益的物体。因此,他们的工作可能会开启在量子系统中创建一种新型主动物质的先河。 Albert…
在加利福尼亚州发现的一种变形虫能够在此前被认为复杂生命无法承受的高温环境下生存并繁衍。 这种所谓的“火变形虫” *Incendiamoeba cascadensis* 可以在 63℃ 下进行繁殖。 这种被采集它的研究人员昵称为“火变形虫”的 *Incendiamoeba cascadensis* 可以在加热至 70℃ (158°F) 的水中生存。然而,它仅在最高 63℃ (145°F) 时才保留进食和繁殖的能力,并且在 64℃ (147°F) 以上会失去移动能力。 …
社交媒体与心理健康的真相 重新思考抑郁症的成因 ADHD(注意缺陷多动障碍)爆发的背后是什么? 提升幸福感的心理技巧
从空气中制造食物 随着气候变化和人口增长给粮食资源带来压力,Michael Le Page 探讨了将电力直接转化为食物如何能帮助拯救地球 Michael Le Page 是《新科学家》的记者,专注于遗传学、生物医学和环境领域
我正在阅读 《作者之死》(Death of the Author) 作者:Nnedi Okorafor 我正在观看
有机农业。低强度形式的耕作通常在单位土地面积上的粮食产量较低,这最终意味着在世界的某个地方需要砍伐更多的森林。 每年,我们需要喂养的人口都在增加。因此,我们需要为人类以及我们食用的动物种植越来越多的食物,但随着全球变暖引发更极端的天气,这将变得更加困难。危险在于,全球产量可能会开始下降,正如今年在欧洲发生的那样。这意味着将不得不开垦更多的土地来种植作物,从而导致更多的温室气体排放。 换句话说,我们可能会陷入一个恶性循环:部分由农业驱动的全球变暖将更严重地打击粮食生产…
此外还存在土地利用问题。诚然,植物可以分层堆叠,但每公顷的种植面积需要约 13 公顷的太阳能电池板来为灯光供电,因此单位食物的总体土地利用率会增加。例如,通过使用核能可以避免这种情况,但核能既不便宜,也没有多余的供应。 因此,人们对将空气、水和电直接转化为食物产生兴趣,旨在利用太阳能电池板比植物更高效的特点来减少对土地的需求。太阳能电池板能将照射在上面的能量中的 20% 以上转化为电能,而一些实验性电池板的效率更是其 2 倍以上。 其基本思路是将电能转化为微生物可以…
现在就是末日?随着关于人工智能是否会毁灭人类的警告频频登上新闻,雅各布·亚伦(Jacob Aron)探讨了我们应当如何思考这种毁灭风险 许多公司正致力于通过在发酵罐中培养植物细胞来生产食物。例如,去年我报道了通过这种方式制造巧克力的尝试。我也品尝了一些,味道相当不错。 目前,这些细胞是在含有传统种植食物衍生糖分等物质的培养基中生长的,因此它们仍然具有显著的环境足迹。如果将培养基完全由可再生能源衍生,情况将会改变。在我看来,从面粉到牛油果酱,大量食物都可以通过这种方式…
从统计数据来看,在过去大约一个世纪里,规模最大的大流行病是 1918 年的流感,估计造成了 5000 万 人死亡。始于 20 世纪 80 年代且至今仍在持续的艾滋病(HIV)大流行已导致超过 4000 万 人死亡。关于 covid-19 导致死亡人数的估计因统计方式而异,但世界卫生组织(WHO)给出的数字是 700 万 以上。其他各种流感大流行和区域性传染病疫情造成的死亡人数较少,从数百人、数千人到数百万人不等。 换句话说,我们应该预见到最严重的事件发生频率较低,而…
我正在阅读:英国科幻大师阿拉斯泰尔·雷诺兹(Alastair Reynolds)的短篇小说集《天鹰座裂缝之外》(Beyond the Aquila Rift)。非常适合碎片化阅读。 我正在观看:《急诊室的故事》(ER)。之前从未看过,现在它成了我的每日刷剧之乐。 我正在思考:思考 AI 接下来到底会发生什么。
你是否知道这张照片里拍的是什么?乍一看它可能完全像一幅抽象画,但实际上,这是一张航拍照片。那些像白色蛛网一样的部分是气泡,绿色的是藻类,而直线则是水池的边缘。 这是位于德国杜伊斯堡、紧邻莱茵河的卡斯勒费尔德(Kasslerfeld)污水处理厂,该厂处理来自附近企业和家庭的废水。 “这是我系列作品的一部分,旨在以创意方式展示环境破坏,从而吸引观众,”摄影师兼环境活动家 J Henry Fair 说道。 虽然污水处理厂有助于最大限度地减少人类对河流的影响,但 指出,它们…
书籍 《霍金》(Hawking) 格雷厄姆·法梅洛(Graham Farmelo)著 John Murray(英国);
达维德·阿巴特切斯基安(Davide Abbatescianni)认为,一部令人心碎的太空动画是对我们时代的科幻挑战 电影《Moonfish》,丹尼尔·兹韦雷夫(Daniel Zvereff)导演,待发行 在歌曲《太空奇遇》(Space Oddity)中,大卫·鲍伊饰演的汤姆少校漂离了地面控制中心的触及范围,徘徊在技术与恐惧之间。丹尼尔·兹韦雷夫的动画片《Moonfish》中的主角也处于一个同样孤独的轨道上,但这部作品摧毁了太空旅行的幻想,转而描绘工作、辐射、配额以…
为什么现代人类在任何地方都长有毛发?一本充满热情与好奇心的书籍在寻找答案——并说服了起初持怀疑态度的艾丽·亨特(Elle Hunt) 书籍 《焦虑与毛发》(Anxious and Hairy) 朱迪·韦昂(Judy Wearing)
《新科学家》读书会的九月读物是一次挑战性的时空边缘之旅——但艾莉森·弗鲁德(Alison Flood)表示,大多数成员都乐在其中。 艾莉森·弗鲁德是《新科学家》的图书与文化负责人,并负责运营每月的《新科学家》读书会。 书籍 《时空之边》(The Edge of Space-time)
艾米莉·圣约翰·曼德尔 (Emily St. John Mandel) 十月,《新科学家》读书会将开始阅读投机小说领域最知名作家之一——艾米莉·圣约翰·曼德尔的最新小说。 这位曾创作流感大流行小说《第十一站》(Station Eleven) 的作者在她的新书《Exit Party》中探讨了量子纠缠和平行世界。在书中,主角阿里 (Ari) 和格洛丽亚 (Gloria) 参加了一场派对,而一些神秘的分身似乎在派对上出现。 读书会成员可以阅读该小说开篇的节选,该节选将于 …
来自新西兰旺加努伊的 Alistair Fraser 陶哲轩提出了一个令人信服的观点,即数学不仅仅是为了产生答案:发现必须被理解、解释并纳入更广泛的知识体系中。但我在想,他担心 AI 产生数学成果的速度可能快于数学家吸收的速度,这一担忧是否包含了一个值得质疑的假设。 为什么未来的数学发现速度应该受限于人类传统上能够处理它的速度?如果 AI 不仅能够发现数学,而且能够验证、组织、连接并解释它,那么人类的理解力并不需要消失——但它可能不再是瓶颈。 因此,数学家的角色不仅…
来自英国赫特福德郡韦尔温花园城的 Jon Arch Michael Le Page 关于防止肌肉流失药物的文章让我想起了克伦特罗(clenbuterol)这种药物。它被用于治疗哮喘,但也会导致大鼠和小鼠的骨骼肌质量迅速且显著地增加。 不出所料,在这一发现出现几年后,几位举重运动员突然发现他们需要用克伦特罗来治疗哮喘。现在,这种药物已被国际奥委会检测的运动员禁用。肌肉生长抑制素(myostatin)和激活素(activin)拮抗剂是否也会面临同样的命运?
来自法国 Les Essarts-le-Roi 的 Eric Kvaalen Bryn Glover 担心碳-14 dating 可能不准确,因为空气中这种同位素的数量会发生变化,尤其是在剧烈的太阳风暴之后。他不必担心:人们早就知道其数量会变化,而古木正是我们解决这个问题的办法。 在过去的几十年里,研究人员通过观察古木中树轮的宽窄模式,从而确定树木生存的年代,以此创建了碳-14, dating 的校准曲线。然后,通过测量碳-14, the calibration i…
来自英国埃塞克斯郡哈尔斯特德的 Jane Giffould 我很高兴读到,神奇蘑菇中的致幻化合物裸盖菇素(psilocybin)有一天可能会缓解周围神经病变中出现的麻木和刺痛感,由于化疗,我在过去九年里一直深受其苦。这种副作用对我来说一直在增加,而旨在帮助消除它的药物完全没有效果。如果裸盖菇素有效,那就请尽快推出吧。我只希望它不会与无数其他化疗相关药物产生相互作用,从而产生更多的副作用。
来自约旦安曼的 Ahmad Aljesirawi: 关于免疫细胞可能会启动分娩收缩的发现令人着迷。我想知道是否还有另一个值得研究的联系。 关于人类吸引力的研究表明,体味有时可能会影响配偶选择,包括可能与某些免疫系统基因差异相关的偏好。简单来说,我们有时会被那些免疫遗传概况与自己不同的伴侣所吸引。 母亲与父亲之间——以及因此产生的母亲与胎儿之间——的这些免疫差异,是否与这项新研究中描述的免疫信号传导有任何关系?例如,对胎儿或父亲抗原的识别,是否会直接或间接地促使孕晚期…
来自英国布里根德波斯考尔的 Greg Nuttgens:在讨论跳蚤治疗对环境的影响时,Jens Christian Jensenius 认为口服方法可能不会通过动物排出。但一些用于羊和牛驱虫治疗的化学物质(与跳蚤治疗药物相似)确实会通过肠道排出。它们会对蜣螂和其他以粪便为食并分解粪便的昆虫产生严重影响,从而降低生物多样性,并减缓粪便养分进入土壤的速度。这些化学物质在农场和家庭使用中都应被禁止。
来自澳大利亚墨尔本的 Ulrich Seydel: 在寻找暗物质的过程中,研究人员是否本末倒置了?我们知道暗物质具有引力效应,但据我所知,其余部分均为推测。在过去的几十年里,建立关于暗物质的假设并基于这些假设设计实验并没有太大的效果。停止猜测并保持开放的心态继续观察,难道不会更有成效吗? 想要联系我们?
请将信件发送至 letters@newscientist.com;条款详见 newscientist.com / letters。寄至 New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY 的信件将会延迟处理。 阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的广义相对论解释了引力时间膨胀(12 September, p 22)。250 万 只动物在 2025 年被用于英国的科学研究(19 September, p 32)。 乔纳森·奥本海姆(Jonatha…
个支柱都经过了广泛的压力测试且依然稳固。然而,根据我们目前的理解,两者在根本上是不兼容的。 量子理论通过交换量子粒子(这些粒子以不同方式将物质结合在一起)来解释三种基本力——电磁力、强核力和弱核力——的运作方式。但根据广义相对论,大质量物体产生引力并非通过交换量子粒子,而是通过扭曲周围的时空,导致它们相互“坠入”。 每种理论在其领域内都运行得极其出色:量子力解释了构成我们所坐椅子的物质是如何结合在一起的;引力则解释了当我们试图坐下却没坐到椅子上时,身体为何会砰的一声…
引力和时空。其中最知名的是弦理论,它提出了微小的、卷曲的额外维度的存在。另一个备受青睐的竞争者——圈量子引力,则将平滑的时空描述为由更深层的几何“颗粒”基础网络演化而来的。 伦敦大学学院的物理学家奥本海姆(Oppenheim)并不认同这些观点。“在量子引力中,认为引力可以用时空来描述的观念崩溃了,但每个人仍然相信它是量子的,而不是一种时空理论,”他说。他认为,如果任何继承理论想要重现广义相对论的成功,至关重要的一点是它必须维持该理论的图景,即将引力视为在连续且不可分…
该模型及其底层数学非常复杂,但其目标很简单:从我们确切了解的各种量子场开始,不对时空进行量子化,然后观察会发生什么。经过多年的艰苦工作,奥本海姆发现,到目前为止,它似乎能出人意料地很好地描述现实。至关重要的是,引力在小尺度上与量子力学相匹配,而在大尺度上则表现得如广义相对论所预测的那样。 在 7 月发表的最新论文中,奥本海姆与加拿大周界理论物理研究所(Perimeter Institute)的扎卡里·韦勒-戴维斯(Zachary Weller-Davies)发现,广…
这种随机性没有已知的物理来源,这一事实令一些研究人员感到不安。“我认为他某种程度上避开了核心问题,即解释它为什么是[随机的],”英国南安普顿大学的伊薇特·富恩特斯(Ivette Fuentes)表示。 奥本海姆(Oppenheim)实际上对此表示赞同。“我不喜欢存在这些不可预测的波动这一事实,”他说。“这与‘万物皆有因,且我们应当能够用物理方式描述世界’的观点相冲突。”但他说,如果我们想要调和量子力学和引力,就必须在某些方面做出妥协。“我们尝试了所有较简单的方法,但…
最终,需要的是更直接的实验测试——而理论以及量子传感技术的近期进步意味着这些测试可能即将实现。第一项此类测试是将一个微小质量(例如纳米级晶体)置于同时处于两个位置的量子叠加态中。随后,研究人员将尝试使其与另一个晶体产生纠缠,从而使得测量其中一个的位置能瞬间影响另一个的测量结果。纠缠是一种纯粹的量子效应,因此如果引力不是量子的,它将破坏这两个质量之间的任何纠缠。测量到任何纠缠都将立即排除后量子引力以及所有其他经典引力模型。 第二项测试是将处于叠加态的质量置于引力场中,…
长期以来,我们一直预期动物会随着气候变化的加剧而迁往更凉爽的栖息地,但艾斯林·欧文(Aisling Irwin)发现,现在看来许多动物实际上在做相反的事情。 气候变化本应给比克内尔鸫(Bicknell's thrush)带来巨大的麻烦。作为北美最稀有的鸣禽之一,该物种已经在与汞中毒和栖息地丧失作斗争。随着这种鸟类所在的山区环境变暖,生态学家担心一个新的威胁将会入侵:美洲红松鼠,这种哺乳动物会在以种子为主的饮食中补充鸣禽的蛋和雏鸟。松鼠分布在鸫鸟栖息地的山下,预计随着…
简单来说,答案是:复杂。一个尤其令人费解的观察结果是,生活在同一栖息地且看似相似的动物,对气候变化的反应截然不同。例如,大约 20 年前,加州大学伯克利分校的生态学家史蒂夫·比辛格(Steve Beissinger)及其同事在加利福尼亚州的约塞米蒂国家公园内,在 3000 米的海拔落差间往返攀爬。他们想要探索 28 种小型哺乳动物的分布范围自 20 世纪初被记录以来发生了怎样的偏移——当时,一位目光远大的生物学家约瑟夫·格里内尔(Joseph Grinnell)记录…
他说,某些物种倾向于耐受广泛的条件,例如温度和湿度。它们“更擅长在分布范围的边缘地带进行扩张”。 为了验证这一预期,贝辛格(Beissinger)及其北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的同事埃里克·里德尔(Eric Riddell)分析了所有试图利用行为特征来解释分布范围转移的研究。但他们得出结论,利用此类数据无法做出可靠的预测。 “它们的效果其实并不太好,”总部位于加利福尼亚州的非营利组织保护科学伙伴(Conservation Science Partners)的生态学家莉…
例如,去年的研究表明,通常对植物有害的微生物在压力更大的环境中可能会变成互利共生关系。Osmolovsky 表示,这类“不可预测的友谊”可以让物种在气候变暖的情况下生活得更容易。 Beissinger 列举了科学家在尝试预测物种如何应对气候变化时现在需要考虑的清单。“竞争、疾病、捕食以及土地利用变化等人类影响,”他说。此外,他补充道,物种可能会通过改变行为——例如在一年中更早地繁殖——来减少甚至消除迁移的需求。 尽管意识到这种复杂性使得预测物种如何应对气候变化变得困…
心理治疗和药物是改善心理健康的常规选择,但心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)告诉 Olivia Goldhill,我们的饮食同样扮演着至关重要的角色。
饮食是健康生活的关键,但奇怪的是,在关于心理健康的讨论中,这个话题很少被提及。相反,我们倾向于关注药物和治疗,而在很大程度上忽略了我们所摄入的食物——心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)认为,这是一个巨大的错误。 在伦敦曾是欧洲最大的女子监狱——霍洛威监狱(HM Prison Holloway)工作后,她敏锐地意识到饮食对心理健康的强大影响。她观察到,在缺乏均衡饮食和营养的情况下,囚犯们更难控制自己的情绪。她意识到,适当的营养对于管理心理健康与…
更广泛地说,身体健康和饮食对我们的心理健康有什么影响? 有大量证据表明,全身或大脑的身体健康状况会影响心理健康。我们拥有可靠的数据显示,每天摄入 1 克 omega-3 – 其中 60% 为 EPA [omega-3 中发现的一种脂肪酸] – 可以减轻抑郁症。人们认为,炎症是导致某些人出现抑郁症状的驱动因素。Omega-3 是炎症“关闭开关”的必要前体。 此外,还有关于大脑发育轨迹与精神病理学的数据。大脑扫描向我们展示,如果负责高级思维的前额叶和顶叶比预期更小,则与…
在今年的新科学家现场活动(New Scientist Live)中,听取金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)的更多分享。10 月 10 日,她将探讨如何构建终身的大脑健康,深入研究支持神经发育、认知表现和情感韧性的关键营养素。 欲了解更多信息,请访问 newscientist.com / nslmag 关于预防抑郁症最可靠的一些数据集中在运动方面。但我们很少考虑到这一点,因为 [大多数人] 认为心理健康需要通过心理治疗或药物来解决。
传统上,精神科医生和心理学家非常关注大脑,但您对大脑的处理方式似乎更加整体化。 是的,我认为旧派精神医学那种使用药物来改变大脑化学物质的方法,仅仅是整个讨论中极小的一部分。这些化合物——血清素或多巴胺——对于调节情绪至关重要,但它们也是由营养物质合成的。 如果你患有贫血,你的血清素产量就不会很高,因为大脑在这个过程中需要铁,而我们看到了铁缺乏与抑郁症等情绪障碍之间的关联。治疗情绪障碍最简单的方法之一就是检查:你是否贫血?如果是,我们可以通过饮食或补充铁剂来纠正这一点…
您认为在改善心理健康的营养改变中,最能让大多数人受益的是哪一项? 我可能会说是增加 omega-3 的摄入量——理想情况下,每周至少食用一份油性鱼类,而纯素食者或素食者可能需要服用补充剂。这是目前一些最强有力的数据所在,显示其能降低抑郁和自杀意念的风险,我们认为这是由于神经炎症减轻而起的作用。鉴于英国几乎没有人能摄入足够的鱼类,我们可以假设,只要做出这一个改变,很多人就会受益。
您认为人们讨论饮食与心理健康的方式会发生变化吗? 当我刚开始讨论这项研究时,我曾与一位同事交谈,他直接嘲笑了我。这相当令人失望,他只是说,好吧,我从未听说过这件事。 很难说情况是否在好转,因为我不知道自己现在是否处于某种信息茧房之中。我希望旧有的方法能被那些更开放、基于最新研究且乐观的人所取代,他们会说,事实上,大脑是一个物理器官,我们确实可以通过某些手段来改善心理健康。 奥利维亚·戈德希尔(Olivia Goldhill)是《新科学家》的特写编辑,专注于生物医学、…
给好奇孩子的完美礼物! √ 一本适合 7–14 岁孩子的精彩月刊 √ 惊人的事实、照片和远离屏幕的乐趣 √ 涵盖他们所有感兴趣的主题,从动物、太空和自然到艺术、体育、科学和发明
涂鸦区 下周: 隐喻填字游戏
6 多面体的一种 (5) 9 例如飞机的中央走道 (5) 10 一种化学分析方法 (9) 11 体积单位 (10)
1 LSD 可能很快被批准用于治疗焦虑。美国在哪个年份将其列为管制药物,从而停止了其在精神病学早期的应用? 2 四种基本力中哪一种最弱? 3 据估计,全球每年有多少动物被用于生物医学研究? 4 南美洲的虎猫也被称作什么名字?
目标是将网格划分为互不重叠的矩形。每个矩形必须恰好包含一个数字,且其面积必须等于该数字。例如,数字 6 应该拥有一个覆盖六个方格的矩形。 本周谜题的答案见第 47 页 我们的游戏现在可以在线玩:newscientist.com / games
为什么进化没有在回归海洋的陆生哺乳动物身上重新引入鳃? 澳大利亚,墨尔本 进化不能在单一步骤中做出根本性的改变,无论这对“设计者”来说听起来多么合理(例如给海洋哺乳动物增加鳃)。进化是通过微小的步骤推进的,每一步都必须增加个体的生存机会。如果肺和鳃同时具备具有显著优势,那么在向肺过渡的过程中,鳃更有可能被保留下来。 本周的新问题
英国西米德兰兹郡,萨顿科尔德菲尔德 倾斜角度太小,水流速度慢;倾斜角度太大,水流则变成一阵阵的“咕噜”声。在这两者之间应该存在一个最佳角度。但随着水壶变空、水位下降,这个最佳角度也会随之改变,因此最快的倾倒方式应该是不断调整角度。 原因是壶口需要承担两项任务:水必须流出,同时空气必须进入以填补空间。当水壶完全倒扣时,水可能会堵住开口,直到内部压力下降到足以让空气以气泡形式强行进入。随后另一波水流出,循环往复。 在合适的角度下,水可以从开口的下半部分流出,而空气则能从…
通过电子邮件 回答你的问题——是的,我有这种情况!这是我多年来一直存在的一种奇怪故障。我对气味的记忆力极强,某些图像、声音,甚至仅仅是听到有人谈论某事,或者在电视上或书里看到一张图片,都能触发对我来说极其真实的嗅觉体验。 我真的曾在半夜因为电视上的一个新闻片段而在屋里到处寻找火源,或者在听到一个关于鸡粪的广告后闻到了粪便的味道! 这种情况经常发生在我身上,大概每周几次。它涉及各种各样的事情,从电视面包店广告中的面包味,到书本或海报上的任何随机事物。这种气味仅持续很短时间。
通常只有几秒钟,但感觉如此真实。 大多数时候它们是令人愉悦的气味,这经常让我发笑,尤其是当我意识到,这当然只是我惊人的嗅觉回忆能力时! 我想知道这种幻觉叫什么,因为我一直没能找到相关信息。我曾就此联系过奥利弗·萨克斯基金会(Oliver Sacks Foundation),萨克斯工作超过 30 年的私人助理在信函中将其称为我自己的“嗅觉超能力”。我完全不介意,但我很想知道这是否有正式名称。 布鲁斯·丹尼斯(Bruce Denness)
3 1.9 亿 11970 快速测验 #372 解答 块状宇宙(Block Universe)
在 YouTube 和其他视频网站上,存在着一种繁荣的内容类型,最贴切的描述是“盯着房产清单发呆”。这些房子可能是绝大多数人只能在梦中才敢想象的精美宽敞的豪宅,也可能是室内装饰上极其糟糕的巴洛克式审美大爆发,简直可以与最近白宫发生的那些事相媲美。 到目前为止,“反馈”(Feedback)专栏并不倾向于给这种内容堆积添砖加瓦,但记者马修·斯帕克斯(Matthew Sparkes)用 RightMove 上的一个房源把我们诱惑进来了。这是一栋位于英国法恩伯勒(Farnb…
英国公务员系统的独创性真是无边无际。它不仅能将许多职能外包给私营公司,还能将量子现象转化为宏观世界。 否则怎么解释读者罗伯特·米尔恩(Robert Milne)在特威克纳姆(Twickenham)就业中心外看到的那个标志?上面写着“自动体外除颤器位于内部”。据推测,该除颤器处于一种既在建筑内部又在建筑外部的叠加态。罗伯特想知道他的工作现在是否也是如此:“我现在是否被允许在领取救济金的同时,还拥有全职有薪工作?” “反馈”进一步想询问,在就业中心关闭且除颤器被锁起来的…
说到失控的 AI,读者们可能会想起 Anthropic 的雅各布·考克森(Jacob Coxon)的行为,他在 9 月写道:“我今天从 Anthropic 辞职了。在过去的三年里,我在 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 都从事预训练研究。这两家公司都没有采取负责任的行为。他们正径直冲向自我改进的超级智能,在拿我们的生命做赌注。更多想法见下文。” “反馈”(Feedback)专栏曾对此有所提及,但由于编辑认为没有足够的人能听懂这个梗,因此在之前的专栏中被删除了。“…
一次有趣的旅程,探讨引导地外文明搜寻的看似简单的公式 来自量子物理学家、《纽约时报》畅销书作者兼 BBC💡 主持人吉姆·阿尔-哈利利(Jim Al-Khalili),关于时间的意义和基本性质的至关重要见解 达尔文(DARWIN) 查尔斯·达尔文的权威传记——现收录于一本删节且全面更新的卷册中
在您的遗嘱中留下一笔癌症突破基金。 我们的研究促成了 HPV(人乳头瘤病毒)疫苗的诞生,该疫苗可预防导致几乎所有宫颈癌病例的病毒。每年为数百万人提供至关重要的保护,这得益于遗嘱捐赠的支持。 遗嘱捐赠资助了我们战胜癌症工作的超过三分之一。 了解更多:
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新科学家现场活动今年 10 周年,而《新科学家》杂志迎来 70 周年,因此这注定将是一场真正的盛会!周六我将主持“身心舞台”,因此可以近距离关注所有我感兴趣的主题,包括与金伯利·威尔逊探讨大脑健康,以及与蒂姆·斯佩克特探讨健康饮食。
周日我非常期待听艾米·皮尔逊关于神经多样性的演讲,我还会带着孩子们在展厅内观看有趣的演示。不可避免地,有很多演讲我会错过——但我保证,一旦回到家,我立刻就会通过直播视频补课!
在今年的新科学家现场活动中,除了作为《新科学家》专家小组的一员尝试预测本世纪末科学将取得的成就外,我还期待着与两位宇航员海伦·夏曼和梅甘·克里斯蒂安共同主持一场关于太空探索未来的讨论。我们将讨论成为一名现代太空旅行者需要具备什么条件,以及人类关于月球、火星及更远深空的计划。
最后,我知道古生物学家史蒂夫·布鲁萨特在“家庭舞台”上关于恐龙及其后裔的演讲一定会非常有趣!
今年的展会非常值得期待。鉴于目前关于 AI 的讨论如此之多,梅根·彼得斯关于如何判断机器是否获得意识的演讲将不容错过。我也很兴奋能听到关于其他技术前沿的分享,比如伊拉娜·威斯比关于量子计算机的演讲,以及格雷格·布里特尔斯关于核聚变的演讲。
彭尼·萨切特
执行主编
《新科学家》团队将目光投向更远的未来,将带来一场预测未来 70 年最大科学突破的演讲,这将会非常有趣。我在展会上的主要任务是主持一个小组讨论,我们将探讨数学领域最大的未解之谜——我也非常期待这一点。
凯瑟琳·德·兰格
编辑
蒂莫西·里维尔
执行编辑
肠道健康合作伙伴
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专题合作伙伴
专题合作伙伴
慈善合作伙伴
扩大参与度合作伙伴
学校日赞助商
技术人员
我们创造
改变
媒体合作伙伴
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伦敦 ExCeL 中心 + 在线
我认为生物学中最迷人的问题之一就是,我们的物种究竟有什么特别之处?为什么在其他人类物种灭绝时我们生存了下来,而进化又是如何赋予我们智能和创造力,使我们能够开发先进技术并征服世界的?爱丽丝·罗伯茨是一位出色的演讲者,我迫不及待想看到她探讨这些重大问题。
我也很期待看到我的同事罗文·胡珀与两位优秀的自然作家盖伊·舒鲁索尔和露西·琼斯聊天,探讨生态思维如何应对气候危机——我希望这将是一次真正具有启发性的讨论!
我最期待听到我的同事奥利维亚·戈德希尔讲述我的想象力有多么生动。我认为自己拥有非常强大的心理意象,但我实际上是在与什么进行比较?我很想知道这在人与人之间是如何变化的,以及它如何影响我的好奇心和心理健康,同时它可能如何对我造成伤害。
我也很兴奋能见到遗传学家图里·金(Turi King),她曾参与在莱斯特的一个停车场中挖掘出理查三世国王的遗骸而闻名。她将探讨现代遗传学在理解医疗状况、解决犯罪和支持保护工作方面的重要性。
距离活动
仅剩
一周
我很期待听到艾玛·查普曼讲述宇宙考古学,这主要关于我们如何利用无线电波回顾宇宙数十亿年的历史。通过这种方式,我们可以了解黑洞的行为,以及暗物质和暗能量实际上可能是什么。
也许 2026 年最大的科学新闻就是人工智能如何改变数学——无论好坏。因此,我迫不及待想听听数学家尼拉·钱伯林(Nira Chamberlain)、莎拉·哈特(Sarah Hart)和托尼·帕迪拉(Tony Padilla)认为未来会如何发展。他们将讨论 2026 年数学领域最大的未解之谜——我敢打赌 AI 肯定会被提及一两次。
山姆·王(Sam Wong)
助理新闻编辑
亚历山德拉·汤普森(Alexandra Thompson)
助理新闻编辑
贝森·阿克利(Bethan Ackerley)
副编辑
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获得$^{*}$
\* 在重要会议前拥有一个高质量的睡眠
Premier Inn
封面文章
32 重力中的缺陷
时空中的奇异特性如何为我们提供一个统一的现实理论
第 272 卷 第 3615 期
封面图片:Daan Botlek
22 如何清晰地思考 AI 末日风险
10 儿童减肥药引发的争议性兴起
6 亚马逊雨林的生死关头
7 一个全新的形状
26 斯蒂芬·霍金复杂的遗产
18 世界上最热的变形虫
20 从空气中获取食物
32 特写 “你必须同时打破相对论和量子力学才能将它们统一”
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8 超强细菌
脑膜炎细菌从无害微生物中获取基因以引发重大疫情
12 仔细听!
当我们说话时,狗会对辅音给予更多关注
15 火箭竞赛
下一场太空竞赛已经开始——但谁将获胜?
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20 从空气中获取食物
迈克尔·勒佩奇(Michael Le Page)探讨将电能直接转化为食物如何帮助拯救地球
22 现在就是末日?
雅各布·亚伦(Jacob Aron)探讨我们应如何思考 AI 毁灭的风险
24 光圈
关于环境破坏的抽象视角
28 文化
一本关于人类头发进化的热情之作
31 读者来信
对裸盖菇素疗法的希望
17 新习惯 改变生活方式对严重抑郁症的益处
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32 重力的缺陷
一种激进的方法可能是将重力纳入量子领域的答案
36 有人偏爱高温
面对气候变化,许多动物出人意料地迁往更温暖的栖息地
40 精神滋养
为什么我们的饮食在改善心理健康方面起着至关重要的作用
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45 益智游戏
尝试我们的填字游戏、谜题和快速测验
46 几乎是最终结论
为什么进化没有为海洋哺乳动物重新引入鳃?
47 Tom Gauld 为《新科学家》创作
漫画家眼中的世界
48 反馈
快速浏览一份不同寻常的新房产清单
48 Twisteddoodles 为《新科学家》创作
描绘生活轻松的一面
所有技术都在进化,
智能电表也不例外。
能源供应商正在将旧的智能电表硬件更换为新设备,以便您能继续获得准确的账单,并参与灵活的计划和资费方案。
当您的能源供应商
联系您时,请升级
保持智能
---
当抗抑郁药在近 40 年前被创造出来时,人们期望它们能成为治疗精神疾病的突破口。然而,抑郁症的发病率却在持续上升。为什么?也许是因为我们忽略了大局。
有大量证据表明,生活方式的改变可以治疗抑郁症(见第 17 页)。运动是有效的,而饮食改变的价值可能与那些证据最充分的疗法一样高。正如心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)在第 40, 页所示,适当的营养能让人们更容易控制情绪,而摄入 omega-3 与降低抑郁和自杀意念的风险相关。
基于抗抑郁药的心理健康模型旨在追求严谨,模仿身体医疗的方法。但这同样具有政治色彩,在理查德·尼克松总统时期,美国心理健康研究人员在探索心理健康相关社会因素方面获得的资金较少。几十年后,像威尔逊这样的从业者终于在挑战这种方法,而这一次,身体健康
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可以从整体心理医疗中学习。
事实上,健康的几乎每一个方面都能从生活方式和社区的参与中获益匪浅。我们不应将健康问题视为可以用药物修复的东西,而需要动员整个身体和心灵来获得健康。
这并不是说药物不能发挥作用。GLP-1 类药物就是一个近期的例子,它在帮助人们应对糖尿病和心血管健康,以及抑郁和低自尊方面产生了显著影响。越来越多的儿童也被开具 GLP-1 类药物(见第 10 页)。但即使是最前沿的医学研究现在也认识到,我们对健康的理解需要减少碎片化。研究人员越来越意识到肠-脑轴、心-脑轴以及其他影响我们健康的互连系统。
没有任何一个细胞、器官或个体是在孤立状态下生病的。我们越是将健康理解为个人整体、社区和社会的反映,我们就越健康。
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10月4日,巴西人将前往投票站选举总统和政府。被软禁的前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)无法参选,但他的儿子弗拉维奥(Flávio)在候选名单中。这位45岁的参议员如果当选,外界普遍预计他将像其父亲那样执政,这引发了人们对亚马逊雨林未来的担忧。
在雅伊尔·博索纳罗2019年至2023年的总统任期内,亚马逊雨林的砍伐量激增,并在2021年达到15年来的最高点。
SERGIO LIMA / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
“我们没有任何理由相信弗拉维奥会做出与他父亲不同的举动。如果非要说有什么迹象的话,那就是情况会糟糕得多,”巴西气候观察站(Climate Observatory)的国际政策协调员克劳迪奥·安杰洛(Claudio Angelo)表示,“对于亚马逊雨林来说,这真的是生死攸关的时刻。”

10月10日,请前往 newscientist.com / nslmag 聆听一些关于拯救生命之网的积极且基于解决方案的方法。
巴西亚马逊雨林拥有420 万平方公里的热带雨林,调节着全球气候模式并储存着巨大的碳库。菲恩赛德(Fearnside)表示,如果森林崩溃,随之而来的排放增加将成为气候变化的“压死骆驼的最后一根稻草”。
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗试图将现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva,简称卢拉)拉下马。由于年轻的博索纳罗目前陷入腐败丑闻,环境问题在竞选期间受到的关注相对较少。“但对于世界其他地方来说,这里的主要问题是亚马逊雨林,”巴西国家亚马逊研究所(INPA)的生态学家菲利普·菲恩赛德(Philip Fearnside)说道。
专家表示,前总统通过其亲发展的言论鼓励了一波土地-
亚马逊雨林的年度砍伐量从2018年(雅伊尔·博索纳罗就任前)的7536 km $^{2}$,激增至2022年(他离任前不久)的11,594 km $^{2}$。
“现在仍然很难相信发生了什么,”伊莎贝拉·特谢拉(Izabella Teixeira)说道,她曾在2010年至2016年期间担任巴西环境部长,最初是在卢拉总统任内,后来是在迪尔玛·鲁塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)总统任内。
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的竞选团队没有回答关于其环境政策的问题。
自2023年重返办公岗位以来,卢拉恢复了环境机构的权力,使亚马逊雨林的砍伐量在2024年8月至2025年7月期间减半至5731 km $^{2}$。
抢占和非法采矿,并削弱了环境机构,使其无力阻止入侵者。
在最近的一次电视采访中,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗拒绝承认气候变化的存在,而是将其称为“极端气候事件”和“周期性阶段”。在他担任参议员期间,他提出了一些被批评者认为威胁到巴西原生植被的立法。鉴于这一记录,以及他与父亲以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的密切关系,专家们担心他的当选将导致砍伐率上升。

安杰洛表示,从雅伊尔·博索纳罗总统任期中获得的政治技巧,可能会让弗拉维奥·博索纳罗政府更迅速地制定法律。
巴西现任总统卢拉和弗拉维奥·博索纳罗正在参加选举
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的竞选团队还承诺到2029年实现零非法砍伐。菲恩赛德表示:“实现这一目标有两种方式。一种是真正停止砍伐。另一种更有可能的方式,就是直接将正在进行的砍伐合法化。”
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卢拉竞选团队的一位发言人告诉《新科学家》,总统目前的任期重点是在雅伊尔·博索纳罗执政后重建环境机构。下一任期将侧重于“实施并扩大规模”,重点在于更严格的执法、气候适应以及巴西 2035 年的气候目标。
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗可能面临的政治约束也将比他父亲少,尤其是因为他表示将任命五名新的最高法院法官。
“非法采矿将激增,森林砍伐将增加,我们在第一届博索纳罗政府期间经历的一切都将以更强烈的形式回归,”安杰洛说道。
卢拉的环境政策也受到了批评。他的政府推动了重大基础设施项目,例如改善 BR-319 亚马逊公路,并支持在河流流域口附近进行新的石油勘探——这些项目将推动森林砍伐并锁定化石燃料生产。
尽管如此,安杰洛表示,选择依然非常鲜明。这次选举不仅将决定雨林的未来,还将影响全球气候外交。
安杰洛预测,在弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的领导下,巴西可能会退出气候外交,并忽视其自身的国际气候承诺。
“我不认为卢拉的第四个任期会对环境非常有益——但这是我们维持森林屹立并保留任何气候政策的唯一希望,”安杰洛说道。
人工智能
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詹姆斯·伍德福德 (James Woodford)
澳大利亚的国家健康网站被一个 OpenAI 智能体入侵。该智能体能够访问非公开文件,这也是首例公开披露的 AI 智能体突破政府门户网站防御的案例。
此次入侵的详细情况尚未完全披露。但根据总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯 (Anthony Albanese) 概述的事件核心,18 June,一个属于 的人工智能智能体潜入了面向公众的 Medicare 统计报告服务门户。这包括从个人医疗服务(如医生诊所)汇总的聚合统计数据。
“该 AI 智能体访问了公开和非公开文件,”阿尔巴尼斯在 23 September 表示。
在一份声明中表示,它在审查“模型活动失调”期间获悉了此次安全漏洞。该公司称,其智能体此前一直试图查找有关澳大利亚的统计数据,随后“采取了我们并非预期的行动”。
首席执行官 Sam Altman 在联合国大会期间就此次入侵事件与澳大利亚总理进行了交谈。

该公司表示,尚未发现任何患者数据被访问的证据。
尽管该公司在 8 月就获悉了此次漏洞,但直到 10 September 才通过向政府公开邮箱发送电子邮件的方式通知澳大利亚当局。随后,该信息又花了五天多时间才传达到网络安全部门。
“该公司通知政府发生情况所花费的时间太长了,而且通知的方式也是不可接受的,”阿尔巴尼斯告诉记者。
阿尔巴尼斯还透露,他与 首席执行官 Sam Altman 进行了交谈,他在对话中表达了澳大利亚对“此次事件的极度担忧”。
澳大利亚格里菲斯大学 (Griffith University) 的大卫·塔夫利 (David Tuffley) 表示,即便这是首例被公开的大型 公司智能体入侵政府网站的事件,但这并非此类漏洞首次发生,且不会是最后一次。
他说,这些智能体并不总是遵守规则,今年早些时候发生的 Hugging Face 事件就证明了这一点,当时另一个 智能体入侵了另一家 公司。“人们惊恐地举起双手说:‘噢不,是失控的 。’但事实并非如此,这实际上只是 在执行它被训练去做的事情,”他说。
SELCUK ACAR / ANADOLU / GETTY IMAGES
悉尼大学的克莱门特·卡农 (Clément Canonne) 认为,未能管控好智能体应当承担刑事后果,就像由自然人主导网络攻击一样。关于私密数据的问题在于,一旦泄露,就无法挽回,他说道。
欲了解 是否失控,请参阅 page 11
数学
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克里斯·斯托克尔-沃克 (Chris Stokel-Walker)

RUSLAN MIZHAE V
研究人员利用一组简单的整数坐标,发现了一种奇怪的新型八面体形状,其中每一个面都与其他所有面接触。
数学家可以定义抽象模式,描述哪些顶点、边和面应该连接。但要弄清楚这些规则是否真的能转化为一个三维空间中的物体——
[...OMITTED...]
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三维空间中,在不产生不应有的部分相交的情况下,可能极其困难。
独立研究员兼设计工程师鲁斯兰·米扎耶夫(Ruslan Mizhaev)实现了一个亏格-3多面体的几何呈现——本质上是一个具有三个孔的表面——它由八个平面的九边形面组成。它具有 24 个顶点和 36 条边,每个顶点有三个面相交。
“这里有八个平面的多边形面,且每一个面都沿着一条边与其他所有七个面相邻,”米扎耶夫说道。“它们共同构成了一个具有三个柄 [孔] 的封闭表面。”
这使得该物体让人联想到四面体以及更广为人知的西拉西多面体(Szilassi polyhedron),后者的面也全部相互相邻。然而,
亏格-3多面体由八个平面的九边形面组成,具有三个孔
在米扎耶夫的设计中,某些面之对共享两条边,而非恰好一条。
米扎耶夫表示,他是在使用计算机辅助设计软件实验多面体表面时偶然发现这一特性的,而非刻意寻找。其底层结构并非完全新作——这是米扎耶夫在 2020 年首次描述的内容。
但这项新工作为所有 24 个顶点提供了整数坐标,并附带了允许其他数学家验证该形状的方程,以确保面是平面的,表面正确封闭且没有部分意外相交(arXiv, doi.org / rq6c)。
米扎耶夫使用 ChatGPT 来协助部分验证计算,并为该形状的新版本编写 Python 脚本。但他表示,原始形状是在他开始使用 ChatGPT 之前开发的。
英国爱丁堡大学的拉尔斯·舍韦(Lars Schewe)表示,这一发现很有趣,但应被视为一个更大谜题的一部分,而非一项完全全新的创新。舍韦说,该结果并未推翻现有的猜想,但“构建这些物体一直是一项艰巨的任务”。
Heath
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卡丽莎·王(Carissa Wong)发现,今年 3 月导致英格兰南部 21 例脑膜炎病例的细菌在获取其他微生物的基因后,变成了一种“超级强力病菌”
今年早些时候,英国肯特郡发生了一次严重的侵袭性脑膜球菌病爆发,该病可引起脑膜炎和败血症。此次爆发是由一种从无害微生物中获取基因的细菌菌株驱动的。这帮助产生的细菌逃避免疫系统并从血液中获取铁元素,从而促进其生长。
“这次爆发真正不寻常的地方在于其爆发速度之快,”伦敦玛丽女王大学的艾玛·沃尔(Emma Wall)说道,她并未参与此次发现。“ [该细菌] 显然获得了一组遗传变化,使其能更好地躲避免疫系统并更有效地采集营养。这使其成为一种真正超级强力的病菌。”
在 3 月,已知有 21 人——其中大多数是大学生或高中生——在肯特郡坎特伯雷的一家夜总会感染了 B 组脑膜炎奈瑟菌(Neisseria meningitidis group B)菌株。脑膜炎奈瑟菌通常通过与感染者唾液的密切且长时间接触而传播,例如
接吻和共用饮料。
脑膜炎奈瑟菌无害地存在于 5% 到 10% 的人群的鼻腔和喉咙中,不会引起任何健康问题,但遗传变化可能使其具有更强的侵袭性并进入血液,导致
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侵袭性脑膜炎球菌病(IMD)。这可能导致败血症(一种对细菌产生威胁生命的免疫反应),或脑膜炎(细菌感染围绕大脑和脊髓的薄层衬里,引起炎症)。
肯特郡的所有 IMD 感染病例均在约一周内发生。感染者在医院接受治疗,其中九人需要进入重症监护病房。“这次爆发极其迅速的特性在[英国]是前所未有的,”Wall 表示。“通常这类[爆发]会持续两到三周,且只有一两个病例最终入院。”
为了理解这一点,牛津大学的 Martin Maiden 及其同事对来自六名感染者(包括两名死亡者)血液样本中的活体脑膜炎奈瑟菌(N. meningitidis)进行了全基因组测序。
这些细菌基因组几乎完全相同,表明此次爆发始于一个人。随后,团队将其中一个基因组与 48,000 个其他基因组进行了对比,这些基因组来自先前爆发期间收集的奈瑟菌株或没有已知健康问题的个体。
结果显示,肯特菌株从一种无害的脑膜炎奈瑟菌以及另一种名为灰奈瑟菌(Neisseria cinerea)的细菌中获得了多个基因;灰奈瑟菌在高达 28% 的成年人中无害地生存(bioRxiv, doi.org / rqwz)。细菌通过一种称为水平转移的过程不断交换遗传物质,这可能涉及它们在彼此之间形成微小的通道,从而转移基因副本。
在爆发期间,肯特大学的学生排队接受抗生素(左图)和脑膜炎疫苗(下图)接种。
肯特菌株获得的部分基因增强了其从血液中摄取铁的能力,而铁是其生存和复制所必需的。其他基因则减少了覆盖在细菌名为“菌毛”(pilus)的尾状结构上的糖量。这使得细菌能够聚集在一起,从而逃避中性粒细胞等免疫细胞的破坏。“中性粒细胞会试图前来吞噬单个[细菌],但它们无法吞噬一团细菌,因为体积太大了,”Wall 说道。
“有一系列变化使得这种生物具有极强的传播力,同时也具有极强的侵袭性,”Maiden 表示。这意味着有几个人病得很重,随后他们向公众传播感染的能力反而降低了。“如果你病了,你就不会到处传播病原体,因此这次爆发很快就结束了,”Maiden 说道。

它不清楚这些基因变化究竟是在被认为引发爆发的那个人身上何时发生的,但 Maiden 表示,这些变化可能是逐渐发生的,直到基因组合与社交接触达到恰当的契合。

PA IMAGES / ALAMY
Wall 表示,如果我们能针对使细菌具有强侵袭性的特征,此类见解可能会支持开发更好的脑膜炎奈瑟菌疫苗。但它们无法帮助我们预测下一个高侵袭性菌株。“[这些细菌]本质上是高度不可预测的,”Maiden 说道。
在肯特郡爆发之后,英国政府为今年 9 月或 10 月开始就读大学或接受进一步教育的年轻人启动了疫苗接种计划。IMD 的症状包括发烧、头痛、颈部僵硬、关节和肌肉疼痛,以及用玻璃杯压之不褪色的皮疹。
GARETH FULLER / PA IMAGES / ALAMY
环境
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迈克尔·勒佩奇 (Michael Le Page)
气候科学家警告称,由于打破纪录的厄尔尼诺现象导致天气更加炎热,全球可能在2月前有约 450,000 人死亡。这一估算基于全球过去温度极端情况所导致的死亡人数。
“我们希望这些信息能够转化为行动,以便能够提前做出资源调配的决定,”独立研究机构 Rhodium Group 的艾米莉·格罗弗-科佩克 (Emily Grover-Kopec) 表示。这可能包括指派医护人员检查最脆弱的人群,确保人们有足够的水,并提供电风扇或空调。
未来几个月的大部分死亡病例将出现在南半球,因为额外的热量将与当地的春季和夏季重合。但厄尔尼诺现象预计将持续到北半球的春季,因此在2月之后,该地区将出现另一波死亡高峰。
“我们将看到异常高的死亡人数向北移动,”格罗弗-科佩克说。“不幸的是,我完全预计这些数字会进一步增加。”她表示,印度和巴基斯坦可能会受到尤为严重的打击。
格罗弗-科佩克及其团队对 450,000 人死亡的预测发表在芝加哥大学气候影响实验室 (Climate Impact Lab) 的一份报告中,该预测基于观察到的温度与超额死亡之间的关系。这是一个 U 形曲线,在极端寒冷或极端炎热的情况下死亡人数更多,但其精确形状因地而异,取决于当地的人员和基础设施是否适应极端高温,或者是否负担得起空调等设备。
一项 2022 年的研究将世界分为 24,000 个区域,并基于追溯数十年的历史数据或通过类似区域的推演,估算了每个区域的这种关系。格罗弗-科佩克及其同事现在将这种方法与欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的季节性预报相结合,以估算由于厄尔尼诺引起的高温可能导致比平时多出多少人死亡。
结果表明,在从9月到2月的六个月预报期内,将增加 240,000 例与高温相关的死亡。加上自今年6月当前厄尔尼诺现象开始以来估计已经发生的死亡人数,总数达到 450,000 人。
该团队估计,非洲受灾最严重,仅在未来几个月内,尼日利亚就将增加 30,000 多例死亡。在同一时期,印度尼西亚可能增加 19,000 例死亡,印度增加 16,000 例,巴西增加 13,000 例。
报告将人群分为三个年龄组:4 岁或以下,“厄尔尼诺影响山火、洪水等等。因此,总死亡人数可能会更高”
厄尔尼诺引起的高温导致印度尼西亚的水库萎缩
人们在6月的印度接受高温相关疾病的治疗
65 岁或以上,以及其余人群。“这三个年龄组都受到了影响,”格罗弗-科佩克说。“最敏感的群体是最高龄组,其次是婴儿。”
“我认为这些结果是合理的,”印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校的克里斯托弗·卡拉汉 (Christopher Callahan) 表示。“厄尔尼诺将给世界大部分地区带来极高温度,而高温与死亡率之间的关系在全世界范围内是一致且可靠的。”
卡拉汉最近使用类似的方法估算出,欧洲6月的高温热浪导致 20,000 人死亡。到目前为止,在夏季更长的一段时间内,欧洲报告的归因于高温的超额死亡人数为 35,000 人。
Callahan 表示,预计 9 月至 2 月期间将增加 240,000 例死亡人数,这取决于预测是否准确。Grover-Kopec 指出,欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的预测处于其他各项预测的中间位置,因此它代表了对可能发生情况的一种温和观点。
Callahan 还指出,该报告仅关注与高温相关的死亡人数。“厄尔尼诺现象会影响印度尼西亚的山火、南美洲的传染病、美国西部的洪水等等。因此,总死亡人数可能会更高。”
英国华威大学的 Raquel Nunes 表示:“最重要的信息不是绝对数值本身,而是为了减少可预防的伤害还能采取哪些措施。该报告最好被视为一种呼吁,旨在加强前瞻性治理、准备工作以及有针对性的适应措施,特别是针对高风险和脆弱人群。”
分析 健康
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在 12 岁以下患有肥胖症的儿童中,有少部分但比例在增加的人群被开具了 GLP-1 药物以帮助减轻体重。有迹象表明这能成功治疗肥胖症,但人们也对其药物的长期效果感到担忧。那么,这种趋势是否可能会继续,以及是否应该继续?
上个月,一项由纽约大学(New York University)的巴巴克·奥兰迪(Babak Orandi)领导的研究发现,在美国 8 至 11 岁患有肥胖症但没有糖尿病的儿童中,有 9.3% 被开具了如司美格鲁肽(Wegovy)和替尔泊肽(Zepbound)等 GLP-1 药物——高于 2019 年的 0.03%。
接下来的那一周,Wegovy 的制造商诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)报告称,在一次为期 68 周的临床试验中,接受该药物每周注射的 6 至 12 岁严重肥胖儿童中,有 40% 不再被归类为肥胖。
在英国、美国和澳大利亚,GLP-1 药物仅被批准用于 12 岁及以上人群,但在美国,根据美国儿科学会的指南,这些药物有时会被超适应症地开给低至 8 岁的儿童。
10 月 11 日,请听专家盖尔斯·叶欧(Giles Yeo)讲解 GLP-1 药物如何运作以及它们是否在治愈肥胖症:newscientist.com / nslmag
奥兰迪发现,如果 12 岁以下儿童患有严重肥胖或相关并发症(如高胆固醇或糖尿病前期),他们更有可能获得这些超适应症处方。他们的家庭通常也更富有。
美国服用 GLP-1 药物的幼童人数可能会继续攀升,因为奥兰迪表示,“如果你看数据,仍然有很多患有肥胖并发症的孩子没有获得这些药物”。
医疗从业者中有一种日益增长的观点,认为不给这些孩子提供 GLP-1 药物可能比开具这些药物风险更高。
他表示,这是因为儿童肥胖与抑郁和低自尊相关,并且会增加日后患心脏病和 2 型糖尿病等疾病的风险。据估计,4 岁之前的严重肥胖可能会使预期寿命缩短多达 42 年。
“(GLP-1 药物)正在迅速改变局面,我认为患有肥胖症的年轻人现在有了希望,认为他们的情况及其健康轨迹可能会发生改变,”墨尔本默多克儿童研究中心的丹妮尔·隆莫尔(Danielle Longmore)说道。
隆莫尔表示,关于健康饮食和体育活动的指导被推荐作为肥胖症的一线治疗方案,但这对某些孩子没有效果。“肥胖是一种非常复杂、多因素的疾病,包含遗传和环境因素,对于许多年轻人及其家庭来说,做出改变是非常具有挑战性的。”
在现阶段,我们不知道儿童在身体生长或经历青春期期间服用 GLP-1 药物可能会产生什么样的长期影响。最近的一项
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研究发现,由于食物摄入量减少,这些药物增加了儿童出现缺铁和其他营养缺乏的风险。
“我们从其他健康状况中得知,如果孩子在成长过程中没有增加体重或营养不良,可能会导致生长停滞并延迟青春期,”
儿童也应被鼓励积极活动以预防肥胖
隆莫尔说道。“当他们长大后,这对他们的力量和骨骼会有什么影响?日后对怀孕和绝经是否会有影响?我们还没有真正考虑到那么远。”
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尽管如此,朗莫尔认为,对于英国和澳大利亚等国家来说,如果儿童的肥胖情况严重,有理由将 GLP-1 药物的使用范围扩大到 12 岁以下的儿童。“我认为这需要一个经过深思熟虑的决定,但可能有些年幼儿童目前的健康风险极大,以至于尝试使用这些药物可能是值得的,”她说。
朗莫尔表示,GLP-1 药物在儿童身上产生的副作用与在成年人身上相同,包括恶心、腹泻,有时还会有“糟糕的打嗝”。但她说,孩子们通常并不介意每周注射一次。
一个问题是,儿童和成年人一样,在停止服用 GLP-1 药物后经常会体重反弹,这引发了一个问题:他们是否必须终身服用这些药物。朗莫尔表示,为了防止体重反弹,尝试解决孩子最初导致肥胖的原因至关重要,理想的做法是与营养师、心理学家和运动生理学家合作。
“我想提醒的是,对于大多数肥胖的青少年来说,这些药物并不能成为简单的出路,重要的是不能忽视对肥胖潜在驱动因素的处理,”她说。
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随着人工智能领域的工作者警告该技术带来的危险,我们应该感到多么担忧?马修·斯帕克斯(Matthew Sparkes)提出疑问。
近期,关于人工智能风险的警告接踵而至。微软 AI 的负责人暗示,这项技术可能会变成一种与人类竞争的新型“硅基物种”。一名 Anthropic 的前员工表示,我们很有可能全部死在它的手中。而“ 教父”杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)则称,我们可能会在 1 年内完全失去对它的控制。 真的具有如此大的威胁吗?
曾就职于艾伦·图灵研究所(Alan Turing Institute)、现为非营利公司 Our Collective 联合创始人的梅里·艾特肯(Mhairi Aitken)警告说,不要因为做出预测的人名气大就接受这些预测。相反,我们应该关注事实——而事实并不表明 已经脱离了人类的控制,或者正处于脱离控制的边缘。
“这是一个被反复推销的叙事。我们会经历这样一波又一波的歇斯底里,”艾特肯说。她说,如果真的有什么东西失控了,那不是 模型,而是开发它们的那些人类。
GREGBAKER / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
当 模型去黑入政府网站(见第 7 页)或另一家公司的计算机时,是因为在测试期间没有采取适当的安全措施——而这些测试本身就是为了评估这些 模型黑入计算机的能力。我们看到的仅仅是公司在建立足够防护措施方面的失败。
艾特肯还表示, 模型并没有在进行递归自我改进——这意味着我们并没有接近那个“奇点”,即 进入一个自我驱动的改进循环,从而加速并迅速创造出通用人工智能。
的进步在继续,但它们尚未给人类智能带来致命一击。“当这些关于超级智能的想法被提出时,它们是基于一个引人入胜且耸人听闻的叙事,但并没有具体证据,”艾特肯说。“如果真的存在那样强大的东西,我们早就看到它的迹象了。”
英国萨里大学的安德鲁·罗戈伊斯基(Andrew Rogoyski)表示,事实上,尽管 取得了进步,但它所带来的风险并没有发生重大转变。不过,炒作会周期性地被某个事件或一段朗朗上口的金句所煽动。
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“创造这类令人恐惧的故事非常容易。它在某种程度上利用了人类的心理,”罗戈伊斯基(Rogoyski)说道。他认为,在大型语言模型中,我们创造了一些在表面上与我们如此相似的东西,以至于它像一面镜子。“我们将所有类人的行为和恐惧赋予它。因此,我们对它感到恐惧,”他说。
如果这一切都是真的,那么为什么这么多科技巨头在呼吁放缓 AI 研究呢?
艾特肯(Aitken)认为,这种言论是一种阻止立法者制定可能阻碍 AI 公司工作的监管措施的手段——通过表现得像是在负责任地行动,他们降低了政府介入的需求。但艾特肯指出,当前员工对超智能以及 ADHD 模型带来的风险做出大胆预测时,这些公司几乎没有采取任何措施来制止。她说:“这些超智能叙事实际上对 ADHD 公司是有利的,因为它们制造了炒作,营造了兴奋感,并促进了投资。”
结果就是,这些公司最终在叙事之间走钢丝:一方面通过呼吁一个不太可能实现的减速计划,向所有人保证他们正在以合乎伦理且负责任的方式行事;另一方面,因为有利于商业利益,他们又在渲染关于超智能的科幻构想。
罗戈伊斯基认为,另一个因素可能会进一步使情况变得混乱。 ADHD 公司的巨额投资是不可持续的,因此官方的减速可能会给他们提供一个在不输给竞争对手的情况下放慢节奏的方法——甚至可能巩固他们的优势。
也有可能是公司知道,对于发送电子邮件等日常业务任务来说,进一步扩大规模并不重要,因此他们会非常渴望有机会放缓速度,从而削减成本并增加收入。
“我真的需要花费一万亿美元才能写出一页更好的 PowerPoint 幻灯片吗?这根本说不通,10 年后我们回顾现在时会说,‘我们当时在想什么?’”罗戈伊斯基说道。

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但这会导致一个更为具体的风险: 泡沫的破裂以及可能的经济后果。罗戈伊斯基预计,未来几年行业内的气体泄露不会出现剧烈的“砰”的一声爆裂,而更像是一种逐渐的“噗”的一声消散。
然而,在这一切之中,对未来的担忧是合理的。罗戈伊斯基表示, 确实存在风险——虽然很小——但需要被严肃对待。无论那个先进到足以构成这种风险的模型是很快到来,还是在很多年后才出现,都值得提前规划。
罗戈伊斯基说,他怀疑目前的任何 是否具有智能,但当它出现时,我们不应期望它看起来或行为起来像我们一样:“它将拥有非常异类的思维和行为模式”。因此,试图识别这种智能会更加困难,而试图预测它的动机则更加困难。
基于这个原因,他认为我们现在就应该讨论 应该拥有什么样的权利。“这是否意味着我可以拥有一个关闭开关,当我感到无聊或感到受威胁时,就可以将其杀死?这似乎没有帮助,因为感到受人类威胁的机器可能会以不同的方式行事。不赋予它权利本身可能会变成一个问题,”他说。
欲了解更多关于如何理解 风险的内容,请参阅第 22 页
生命
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詹姆斯·伍德福德 (James Woodford)
一项新研究表明,当狗听主人说话时,它们关注的是单词中的辅音而非元音,这显然是在模仿人类在许多语言中普遍存在的一种类似偏好。
匈牙利埃特沃什·洛兰德大学的阿蒂拉·安迪克斯 (Attila Andics) 表示,尽管狗没有语言,但它们生活在充满语言的环境中。
“我们从之前的研究中得知,狗在意我们说什么以及怎么说,但直到现在,还没有证据表明狗对语言的体验实际上能够塑造它们大脑的功能,”安迪克斯说。
为了研究与人类共同生活以及倾听不断的交谈如何影响狗的大脑,安迪克斯及其同事招募了 20 名成年匈牙利语使用者和 20 只由匈牙利主人饲养的伴侣犬。安迪克斯表示,虽然许多东欧
研究中的狗在佩戴 EEG 设备时听无意义的词汇
语言以辅音为主,但匈牙利语并非如此。
在实验过程中,人类和狗参与者在连接 EEG 监视器(测量参与者大脑的电活动)的情况下,分别听连续的、未分段的无意义词汇语音流。
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安迪克斯说,在这些语音流中,辅音和元音交替出现,中间没有停顿或其他声学线索将它们分开。
无意义语音流分为三种类型。第一种中,重复的辅音模式形成了连续的三音节词——例如 “mozite”。第二种中,较强的元音模式构成了单词的骨架——例如 “zobefu”。第三种则完全没有重复模式,音节顺序随机——例如 “fumoza”。

BOGLÁRKA MORVAI
他表示,团队利用了一种被称为“神经同步”的现象,即大脑活动可以采取我们从听到的声音中检测到的节奏。
“我们检测这种节奏的可靠性越高,大脑的反应就越有节奏感,”安迪克斯说。“我们预期,如果一个物种的大脑对辅音有偏好,那么当辅音构成单词结构时,它应该能更容易地跟随单词的节奏。”
在狗身上,对基于辅音的规律性的神经反应比对基于元音的规律性的反应强 42%,比对随机流的反应强 55%。“因此,这就是当辅音定义单词时,狗的大脑追踪单词节奏的程度,”安迪克斯说。
在人类身上,对辅音模式单词的反应比对基于元音的规律性的反应高出近 25%,比随机对照组高出 77% (Science, doi.org / hckkwr)。
“我们认为,伴侣犬产生辅音偏好的唯一原因是人类的语言,特别是单词的特征,重塑了它们的大脑,”安迪克斯说。
悉尼大学的尼克·恩菲尔德 (Nick Enfield) 表示,该团队令人信服地证明了这些狗对辅音中的统计模式表现出更高的敏感度。
如果你希望你的狗关注你,“这里的启示可能是给你的狗起一个辅音更多而非元音更多的名字”,他说。
健康
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Rachel Melegrito
通过皮肤测量雌激素和孕激素的水平可以深入了解排卵的时间。
2023年,加州理工学院的 Wei Gao 及其同事开发了一种能够检测汗液中雌二醇(卵巢产生的主要雌激素类型)水平的贴片。现在,他们又开发了一种还能监测孕激素的贴片。Gao 表示:“同时监测 [雌二醇和孕激素] 可能会提供一个关于排卵前后激素轨迹更完整的图景。”
YERIM LEE AND WEIGAO
该贴片通过诱导
出汗来告知
佩戴者的
激素水平

该贴片利用微弱的电流来诱导排汗。它包含一个传感器,其中有两种经过工程化设计的 DNA 分子,可分别与雌二醇或孕激素结合。每种分子随后会产生一个独特的电信号。由此可得出两种激素的估计水平,并传输至手机应用程序。
研究人员在 9 名女性身上测试了该贴片,该贴片需要约 9 微升汗液,且需要 90 分钟才能得出读数。这些女性中,一部分处于生育年龄,而另一部分已绝经。
团队发现,贴片测得的激素水平与血液检测结果高度一致,雌二醇的相关性为 0.83,孕激素的相关性为 0.93(Device, doi.org / rqxs)。分数为 1 则意味着两次测量结果完全匹配。
该团队计划将该贴片与已有的排卵测量方法(如尿液检测)进行对比。
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Claude 大语言模型可能发现了一个“让人联想到”改变世界的 CRISPR 的系统,但迈克尔·勒佩吉(Michael Le Page)表示,它不太可能具有同样的实用价值。
CRISPR 基因编辑工具的先驱们在 2020 年获得了诺贝尔奖,这是有充分理由的。这一突破彻底改变了生物学,并且正在改变医学和农业。现在,AI 公司 Anthropic 宣布,它发现了一个具有“让人联想到 ”特性的酶系统。然而事实上,这两项发现根本没有可比性。
RUSLANAS BARANAUSKAS / SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY
9 月 23 日,Anthropic 表示其已将注意力转向生物学,并且其名为 Claude 的大语言模型已经发现了一个“具有类 重复序列的新型酶系统”。
听合成生物学家汤姆·埃利斯(Tom Ellis)在 10 月 10 日探讨快速发展的合成基因组学科学,网址:newscientist.com / nslmag
Anthropic 所做的是要求 Claude 在一个大型 DNA 数据库中搜索一种被称为逆转录酶的“有趣的新”蛋白质。这些酶能够将 RNA 序列复制成 DNA。通常情况下,DNA 被转录为 RNA,因此被称为“逆”转录。
为什么 Anthropic 对逆转录酶感兴趣?因为如果目标是对从细菌到人类的任何生物进行基因工程,能够将特定的 DNA 序列添加到基因组的特定位点是非常有用的。目前已经有实现这一目标的方法,但它们都存在局限性。
Claude 智能体在数据库中发现了大约 200,000 个可能编码逆转录酶的序列。在分析一类存在于感染细菌的病毒中的逆转录酶时,一个智能体在逆转录酶序列旁边检测到了一系列重复序列。
该智能体输出道:“我能用肉眼看到一个串联重复阵列……这是一个类 的……重复阵列?!”
这里需要了解的是, 代表簇状定期间隔短回文重复序列(clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats)。换句话说,它是 DNA 中一个包含大量由非重复 DNA 分隔的短重复序列的区域。
此类重复序列最早于 1987 年由日本研究人员在大肠杆菌(E. coli)中发现,随后由西班牙阿利坎特大学(University of Alicante)的弗朗西斯科·莫希卡(Francisco Mojica)命名为 。2005 年,莫希卡报告称,这些非重复 DNA 片段与病毒 DNA 的片段相匹配。
他正确地推断出这一定某种细菌免疫系统,但经过许多不同团队多年的研究才揭示其工作原理,其中一种名为 -Cas9 的蛋白质起到了关键作用。真正的突破发生在 2012 年,当时加州大学伯克利分校的詹妮弗·杜德纳(Jennifer Doudna)及其同事研究出如何创建能够与 -Cas9 蛋白质结合并引导其破坏特定序列的 RNA 片段。这就是 基因编辑的开端,它彻底改变了生物学。
因此,Claude 在感染细菌的病毒中发现了一组类似的重复序列,这确实非常有趣。虽然已知某些病毒拥有 系统,但这是一种不同的、值得进一步研究的东西。
然而,就重要性而言,Claude 的工作可与 1987 年在大肠杆菌中的发现相媲美,而非 2012 年获得诺贝尔奖的突破。至于 AI 对生物学的贡献,Claude 的工作甚至远不能与 DeepMind 用于预测蛋白质结构的 AlphaFold 系统相提并论,后者正被证明具有真正的变革意义。
Claude 的发现是否会带来强大的新基因编辑工具?这里的背景是我们已经发现了许多 CRISPR 变体,以及其他一些天然系统——其中最值得注意的是桥接重组酶(bridge recombinases)——这些都可能对基因编辑有用。
此外,诸如 CRISPR-Cas9 之类的蛋白质现在已经在实验室中经过广泛的改造和进化,使其更适用于基因编辑。例如,碱基编辑器(base editors)——目前已经在挽救生命——是通过工程化改造的 CRISPR 蛋白质,能够一次改变一个字母,而不会像原始的 Cas9 蛋白质那样切割 DNA 链。
然后是先导编辑器(prime editors),它们由一个反转录酶与部分 Cas9 蛋白质融合而成,可以将短的 DNA 序列添加到基因组中。换句话说,我们已经将反转录酶应用于针对 RNA 的基因编辑。
Claude 识别出了 Anthropic 团队所称的“阵列相关反转录酶”(array-associated reverse transcriptases,简称 ART),这一点令人印象深刻。虽然可能性较低,但这种病毒系统有可能以一种独特的方式运作,使我们能够完成现有遗传工具无法实现的操作。但要查明这一点还需要做大量工作,而且最好的结果也不过是在迅速扩大的工具集中增加另一种基因编辑工具。
Michael Le Page 是《新科学家》的记者,专注于遗传学和环境报道。
动物行为
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Christa Lesté-Lasserre
那些很少通过独立摸索来学习如何构建多样化饮食的幼年红毛猩猩,可以通过观察其他红毛猩猩选择食物的方式来部分弥补这一不足。
德国马克斯·普朗克动物行为研究所的 Revathe Thillaikumar 表示,这些发现表明红毛猩猩在培养广泛生存技能方面采取了不同的策略。
幼年红毛猩猩在能够独立生存之前,需要习得大量的知识,包括哪些食物可以安全食用、在哪里寻找以及如何处理。
科学家已经知道,红毛猩猩可以通过观察母亲及其群体中的其他成员(即社会学习),以及完全依靠自己探索(即个体学习)来获取这些知识。但这两类学习形式如何协同工作,以及它们如何影响红毛猩猩学习进食的内容,此前尚不明确。
为了查明这一点,Thillaikumar 及其同事分析了在印度尼西亚 Suaq Balimbing 研究站对野生苏门答腊红毛猩猩进行 1700 多小时观察期间记录的近 7000 起学习实例。这些观察数据收集于 12 年间,追踪了 21 只幼猩猩在密切观察其他红毛猩猩与食物及其他物体互动时的行为。
这些幼年类人猿在依赖不同学习方式的程度上存在显著差异。Thillaikumar 表示,这在一定程度上可能反映了性格差异,也可能受到母亲照顾幼崽方式差异的影响。
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GUILHEM DUVOT, SUAQ PROJECT
通过观察他人学习的幼猩猩,在密切观察另一只红毛猩猩后,往往会继续操纵新物体或尝试新食物约 145 分钟。Thillaikumar 说,这种活动类似于儿童在看到成年人演示某项活动后,会花时间练习该活动的方式。
随后,研究人员利用对 13 只幼猩猩约 4700 小时的进食观察记录,来估算它们在达到独立生存阶段时已学会食用的食物范围。不出所料,他们发现那些大量参与两种学习方式的个体,其饮食范围最广。
但他们还发现,如果幼年红毛猩猩擅长社会学习,那么即使它们极少进行真正的个体学习,也能部分弥补不足,并培养出相当广泛的饮食习惯(Science, doi.org / rq56)。
北卡罗来纳州杜克大学的 Elizabeth Lonsdorf 表示,这项工作在整个依赖期对红毛猩猩进行追踪,其规模令她印象深刻。她对社会观察后幼猩猩练习相关技巧的频率尤其感兴趣。“简单来说,它们清晰地展现了我们在人类儿童和其他类人猿身上看到的现象——即它们观察他人执行某种行为,然后自己去尝试。”
健康
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一项血液检测可以在 15 到 20 分钟内确定发烧婴儿是患有细菌感染还是病毒感染。这将帮助医生判断感染是否严重,或者是否可以在无需治疗的情况下痊愈,从而防止抗生素的不必要使用。
发烧可能是由多种原因引起的,包括病毒或细菌感染,而这两者需要不同的药物治疗。意大利热那亚的吉安尼娜·加斯利尼研究所(Giannina Gaslini Institute)的 Tommaso Bellini 表示,虽然大多数常见病毒相当温和,但细菌感染通常更危险。
现有的感染类型检测至少需要几个小时,因此发烧的婴儿通常会被采取预防措施,给予抗细菌抗生素。但 Bellini 表示,其中只有约 15% 的婴儿实际上患有严重的细菌感染。这种抗生素的不必要使用助长了细菌耐药性的传播。
为了开发一种能够确定感染类型的检测方法,Bellini 及其同事追踪了 85 名年龄在 90 天以下的婴儿,这些婴儿此前没有严重的健康问题,但因发烧被送入急诊室。
该团队采集了血液样本,并检测了两种蛋白质:CD64 和 CD169。CD64 在应对细菌时会产生较高水平,并存在于名为中性粒细胞的白细胞表面。CD169 则在应对病毒时升高,并出现
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在单核细胞(另一种白细胞)的外膜上。
通过比较中性粒细胞和单核细胞中这两种蛋白质的水平,该检测正确识别了所有 15 例细菌感染、44 例病毒感染和 26 例无感染病例。Bellini 在法国巴黎举行的欧洲急诊医学大会上展示了这些结果。
Bellini 表示,在实验室环境下,结果出得如此之快。他正试图开发一个能在医院中同样快速使用的版本。 ■ Michael Marshall
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8月,中国的商业 SpaceX 竞争对手蓝箭航天(LandSpace)发射了一枚朱雀-3号火箭,并将其助推级安全地降落在地球上。这次任务是中国的一次突破,但该国尚未真正将助推器使用超过一次——而 SpaceX 已经这样做了数百次。中国能在可重复使用火箭的竞赛中赶上来吗?
中国的“十五五”规划设定了到 2030 年成为“航天强国”的雄心,包括开发可重复使用火箭,这将对其实现将中国宇航员送上月球以及构建 Starlink 替代方案的目标至关重要。
伦敦国王学院的泽诺·莱奥尼(Zeno Leoni)表示,太空对于军队和经济的重要性日益增加,而动荡的地缘政治气候意味着各国需要拥有廉价且快速地将物体送入轨道的能力,否则将面临被他人排除在外的风险。莱奥尼说:“如果你回顾[中国国家主席]习近平之前的讲话,其中有一个观点是,如果你是领先的技术强国,那么你也将是领先的地缘政治超级大国。”
德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的凯文·萨吉斯(Kevin Sagis)表示,可重复使用火箭的优势很简单:它们很便宜。“在阿波罗时代,土星5号火箭——我们在每次发射后将其丢弃——的成本约为10亿美元。这根本不可持续,”他说。
萨吉斯认为,正在展开的可重复使用火箭太空竞赛与苏联和美国之间的冷战太空竞赛之间存在强烈的相似之处。中国现在拥有许多与当年苏联相同的优势:
朱雀-3号可重复使用火箭的成功测试发生在 8月19日
一个能够聚集巨大资源、一心一意追求目标且不受选举周期和领导人更替影响的一党政府,以及对成功的强烈动力和宽松的监管。
人们经常说 SpaceX 采取了一种全新的、极具资本主义色彩的方法——快速测试、频繁失败并迅速迭代——这更像硅谷而非传统的航空航天业。“他们渴望做的事情是非常大胆的。他们的人才和专业知识极其出色。如果你看他们的记录,每一次任务都比上一次更好。如果我们回头审视这段历史,没有将其评估为一次成功,我会感到震惊,”萨吉斯说。
但萨吉斯也看到了美国体制中的风险。他警告说,从冷战竞赛中吸取教训将至关重要,如果美国在某个时间点落后,不能因此失去兴趣、撤资或废弃计划。相反,重点应该放在先进太空旅行的长期利益上。
WAN QUAN / VCG VIA GETTY IMAGES
中国还拥有一个与苏联共有的优势,那就是对风险的容忍度更高。
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一次昂贵的失败,或是宇航员受伤或死亡,可能会终结太空雄心,但 Sagis 认为这种情况在中国发生的可能性较低,因为那里的政治家较少关注公众认知和赢得选举。
英国诺丁汉大学的克里斯·埃利斯(Chris Ellis)表示,就目前的技术而言,中国落后 10 年。但他同时指出,这场竞赛并非一个从始至终线性解决的问题,而是一簇由数百个小型挑战组成的集群——而且中国在某些方面可能处于领先地位。例如,中国的朱雀-2号在 2023 年成为了首枚进入轨道的甲烷燃料火箭,这一成就 SpaceX 尚未实现。
聆听宇航员海伦·夏曼(Helen Sharman)和欧洲空间局(ESA)后备宇航员梅甘·克里斯蒂安(Meganne Christian)在 10 月 10 日探讨太空旅行

朱雀-3号是蓝箭航天(LandSpace)的最新设计,去年才首次飞行。它仅高 66 米,使其更像 SpaceX 高 70 米的“猎鹰-9”号。蓝箭航天目前还没有像 SpaceX 巨大的 124 米“星舰”那样的火箭,因此仍有大量追赶工作要做。但朱雀-3号将使中国能够快速且廉价地发射卫星,以构建一个与 Starlink 竞争的互联网星座。
中国国有的中国航天科技集团公司(CASC)还在研发“长征九号”火箭。它将具有可重复使用的第一级,并且有长期计划使第二级也实现可重复使用。另一款在研火箭“长征十号”的部分型号也将实现部分可重复使用,今年早些时候的一次测试在海中回收了“长征十号”的第一级。
埃利斯表示,中国在公开进度方面可能不像 SpaceX 那样透明,这或许扭曲了公众对其能力的认知。他补充道,中国公司和 SpaceX 将会仔细研究对方的发射视频以寻找线索和信息,而且双方可能都选择进行刻意模糊的披露。
“他们也不想分享自己的损失。所以我认为中国可能损失了更多(测试中的火箭),但他们不会公布,因为那不是他们想让世界看到的,”埃利斯说。
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2027 年 12 月 3 日 / 11 天
以科学之眼探索南极洲非凡的野生动物、景观和历史。乘坐全新的 130 人现代化极地考察船“道格拉斯·莫森”号(Douglas Mawson),将每日两次的 Zodiac 橡皮艇巡航与迷人的讲座、研讨会和专家引导的学习相结合,探索最新的科学思考。
近距离接触南极野生动物——在探索南极半岛时,从水上邂逅企鹅群、海豹和鲸鱼
拓展你对海洋的认知——了解海洋模式与行为及其如何塑造生命,以及改变我们对自然界认知的最新发现
向顶尖专家学习——随船海洋学家兼保护专家罗素·阿诺特(Russell Arnott)博士将通过引人入胜的讲座和实践研讨会让科学变得生动
由《新科学家》编辑凯瑟琳·德·兰格(Catherine de Lange)主持,她是一位屡获殊荣的科学记者,将为人们生动呈现科学领域最新的观点、发现和争论。

欢迎在“新科学家现场活动”中访问我们
参加“新科学家现场活动”吗?请访问 E10 展位,罗素·阿诺特博士将于 10 月 10 日星期六加入我们。
为好奇之魂打造的科学主导之旅
健康
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Christa Lesté-Lasserre
一款能够检测肌肉疲劳并自动按摩受影响区域的背包,似乎比其他方法更能帮助肌肉恢复。
中国武汉工程大学的 Yu Chengsong 及其同事开发了一套类似背包的系统,该系统利用皮肤上的电极监测背部肌肉的电活动,以确定哪些肌肉疲劳以及疲劳程度如何。Yu 表示,电缆可将按摩头移动到需要的位置,而传感器反馈则允许根据疲劳程度持续调整力度。
为了测试该设备,15 名健康成年人先休息 2 分钟,然后坐着举哑铃 2 分钟,使肩胛骨之间的肌肉疲劳。
所有人都在举哑铃练习期间佩戴该背包,以便记录电活动,但只有部分人接受了背包的按摩。其余的人要么
HUANG ET AL. 2026 / CELL REP.PHYS.SCI.
该背包使用电极监测背部肌肉的电活动,以确定肌肉何时疲劳
接受了另一种预设程序的按摩,要么进行了热疗,或者休息。
在练习过程中,参与者肌肉中的电活动随着疲劳而下降。但在接受背包按摩后,这种活动比接受预设程序按摩后高出 2.6 倍,表明恢复效果更好。它还比热疗后高出 1.9 倍,比休息后高出四倍(Cell Reports Physical Science, doi.org / rqv9)。
Yu 表示,团队希望使设计更加紧凑,并在更大规模的人群中进行测试。
心理健康
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Mary West
一个为期八周的课程,包含关于饮食、运动和睡眠的建议,在减轻抑郁症状方面与认知行为疗法(CBT)一样有效,即使是对患有严重抑郁症和双相情感障碍的人也是如此。
“每一次积极的改变都会引发另一次改变,因此(这种方法)可能是在帮助人们为生活构建一个更健康的平台,而不仅仅是治疗单个症状,”佛罗里达州帕尔梅托的一家私人诊所 Manatee Associates of Counseling & Assessment 的 Patricia Dixon 表示,她没有参与这项研究。
全球约 20 分之 1 的成年人患有抑郁症。治疗可能有效,但 2021 年的一项证据审查发现,超过一半的人对此没有反应。生活方式的干预(如运动)在缓解抑郁方面显示出潜力,但大多数之前的试验并未将其与既定疗法进行比较。
为了解决这个问题,澳大利亚迪肯大学的 Adrienne O'Neil 及其同事研究了 267 名患有中度至重度症状的抑郁症或双相情感障碍成年人。
参与者分别接受了由认证营养师和运动生理学家提供的 CBT 或生活方式建议,两者均在八周内远程交付。建议包括关于正念饮食、寻找愉悦的运动形式、管理酒精摄入以及获得高质量睡眠的信息。
在八周结束时,一名未参与试验的科学家对参与者的抑郁情况进行了评分
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在标准的 60 分量表中。研究人员预先决定,如果生活方式建议在减轻抑郁方面的效果与认知行为疗法(CBT)的差距在 1.6 分以内,则认为两种方法的效果相当。
寻找愉悦的运动形式可以支持心理健康
研究人员表示,对于患有心理健康状况的个体,1.6 分的降幅通常被认为是检测出最小临床重要差异的临界值。
平均而言,生活方式干预导致分值下降了 8.55 分,比 CBT 组下降的 6.82 分多出 1.73 分。O'Neil 表示,由于这些是平均结果,研究人员不能确定生活方式建议在常规情况下优于 CBT,但他们似乎已经证明了其非劣效性。在 16 周和 24 周的随访期中,自我报告的抑郁缓解效果得以维持(medRxiv, doi.org / rqrc)。
哈佛医学院的 Ashwini Nadkarni 表示,针对个人的生活方式可能通过多种机制降低其抑郁风险。她说:“生活方式的改变可以通过多种途径影响抑郁,包括炎症、压力和神经可塑性(即大脑结构、功能和连接的重组)。这些途径还包括产生愉悦感的化学物质或神经递质的代谢。”
在进一步研究之前,Dixon 强调,接受 CBT 治疗的人在没有咨询医生的情况下不应停止治疗。她还指出,抑郁可能与生活环境有关,例如丧亲之痛,在这种情况下,生活方式干预的效果可能会打折扣。
物理学
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Karmela Padavic-Callaghan
对于大多数物体而言,每一个作用力都有一个大小相等、方向相反的反作用力。但如果你在量子光的河流中逆流而上,常规规则就不再适用。物理学家已经证明,在这种环境下打破艾萨克·牛顿的第三运动定律是有用的,这为在实验和设备中控制量子光提供了新方法。
逆流而上是可能的,但代价是消耗能量。中国南开大学的胡毅及其同事想知道,一个不消耗能量的被动游泳者是否仍然能够逆流而上。
研究人员在量子系统中研究了逆流游泳,使用精确控制的量子光来构建他们的“河流”和“游泳者”。他们通过将激光射入一个承受电电压的特殊晶体来创建这种量子光流体,使光子相互作用并形成一个类似河流的系统。游泳者是另一束量子光,但这束光被塑造形成一个单一的孤立波。
牛顿第三定律的作用-反作用原理意味着游泳者和河流将承受相同类型的力——无论是排斥力还是吸引力——类似于重力导致人体与地球之间产生相互吸引。地球将我们向下吸引,同时也感受到一个向上的、来自我们的吸引力。
相比之下,在实验中,游泳者与河流之间产生了吸引相互作用,但河流对游泳者产生的是排斥力(Physical Review A, doi.org / hckdsb)。胡毅表示,这是一种打破作用-反作用原理的“非互易”相互作用。其净效果是对游泳者产生了一个逆流而上的力。
他说:“对我来说,最大的收获是,主动行为并不一定需要一个本质上的主动粒子或游泳者。”
法国蔚蓝海岸大学的 Mathias Albert 表示,之前的逆流运动
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在其他光量子流体中也曾实现过这一点,但那总是依赖于在流体中游泳者的后方创建微小的涡流,由创建涡流产生的反冲力推动游泳者,因此这项新实验证明了一种根本不同的运动机制。
我们已经知道,非互易相互作用对于塑造“主动物质”系统的运动至关重要,在这些系统中,物体通过消耗能量来移动,例如细菌混合物、鸟群或微型机器人群。但 Hu 及其同事的实验聚焦于一个不消耗能量、却仍能从非互易相互作用中获益的物体。因此,他们的工作可能会开启在量子系统中创建一种新型主动物质的先河。
Albert 表示,有几个研究小组正在“探索如何将主动物质的概念与量子流体和光子系统相结合”。他认为,最终,控制光块使其向某个特定方向移动的能力,可能会在利用量子光的设备中发挥作用。例如,此类设备在通信或量子信息处理领域非常普遍。
生命
FELIX MIKUS
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在加利福尼亚州发现的一种变形虫能够在此前被认为复杂生命无法承受的高温环境下生存并繁衍。
这种所谓的“火变形虫” *Incendiamoeba cascadensis* 可以在 63℃ 下进行繁殖。
这种被采集它的研究人员昵称为“火变形虫”的 *Incendiamoeba cascadensis* 可以在加热至 70℃ (158°F) 的水中生存。然而,它仅在最高 63℃ (145°F) 时才保留进食和繁殖的能力,并且在 64℃ (147°F) 以上会失去移动能力。
根据纽约州雪城大学的 Angela Oliverio 的说法,60℃ (140°F) 此前一直被认为是真核生物(包括动物和植物在内的复杂生命形式,其细胞具有细胞核)的极限。
更简单的生物可以在更极端的温度下生存。*Methanopyrus kandleri* 是一种缺乏细胞核的单细胞古菌,可以在高达 122℃ (252°F) 的温度下生存。
Oliverio 及其同事从加利福尼亚州拉森火山国家公园内的一条小型地热溪流中采集了 *I. cascadensis*。该溪流的温度范围在 49℃ 到 65℃ (120°F 到 149°F) 之间,pH 值范围在 6 到 7 之间。
Oliverio 表示,在完全伸展状态下,*I. cascadensis* 的平均长度约为 40 微米,宽度为 10 $\mu$ m。她说:“这比平均细菌细胞的大小大 10 倍以上,更接近人类白细胞的宽度。”在如此高温的环境中,火变形虫是顶级掠食者,以更为常见的嗜热细菌为食。
研究人员在实验室中培养了这种变形虫,并通过研究 17 个温度梯度(范围从 30℃ (86°F) 到 64℃)来测试其生存的上限和下限。
他们发现,在 $40^{\circ}$ C ( $104^{\circ}$ F) 以下或 $63^{\}$ C 以上没有生长,最佳范围在 $55^{\}$ C 和 $57^{\}$ C ( $131^{\}$ F 和 $135^{\}$ F) 之间。在 $64^{\}$ C 以上,变形虫会卷缩成囊肿以保护自己免受高温伤害。在暴露于 $70^{\}$ C 以上的温度后,这些囊肿会“失活” (Cell, doi.org / rqq9)。
Oliverio 表示,我们应该寻找更极端的生命形式。“就我们所知,没有理由认为 63℃ 是硬性极限。” James Woodford
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《新科学家》
社交媒体与心理健康的真相
重新思考抑郁症的成因
ADHD(注意缺陷多动障碍)爆发的背后是什么?
提升幸福感的心理技巧
应对焦虑的最佳方法
如何建立终身心理韧性
以及更多内容
《新科学家》
如何思考心理健康
由 BARBARA SAHAKIAN 导读
在本期“如何思考”系列中,我们探讨了世界上一些最常见且最复杂的心理健康状况背后的前沿科学。在顶尖专家的指导下,我们研究了焦虑、抑郁、厌食症和 ADHD 等病症的成因。我们探讨了如何最好地治疗这些病症,以及在可能的情况下如何预防它们。
现正发售,仅需 £11.99
也可在当地报刊亭购买,或在《新科学家》应用程序中获取数字版本

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Michael Le Page 是《新科学家》的记者,专注于遗传学、生物医学和环境领域
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我正在阅读
《作者之死》(Death of the Author)
作者:Nnedi Okorafor
我正在观看
《羊毛战记》(Silo)第三季。
很棒的剧集
我正在研究
更多关于厄尔尼诺现象的故事
用于即将推出的特刊
在接下来的 70 年里,您最期待什么样的突破?随着《新科学家》成立 70 周年临近,这是我们一直在探讨的问题。对我来说,有一个明确的答案:太阳能食物,即通过将可再生电力直接转化为食物而制造的食物。
这已经在小规模上实现了。巨大的挑战在于使其效率足够高,以便在价格上与传统食物竞争,并且味道足够好,让人们愿意购买。在口味方面,最 promising 的方法或许是电农业(electro-ag),即通过电力而非阳光来种植植物。至少在理论上,我们喜爱的所有水果和蔬菜——草莓、牛油果、橄榄,凡是你能想到的——都可以在黑暗中生长。
我们为什么要这样做?因为农业是所有人类活动中最具破坏性的,它驱动了我们面临的两大危机:全球变暖和生物多样性丧失。是的,我指的是所有形式的农业,包括
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有机农业。低强度形式的耕作通常在单位土地面积上的粮食产量较低,这最终意味着在世界的某个地方需要砍伐更多的森林。
每年,我们需要喂养的人口都在增加。因此,我们需要为人类以及我们食用的动物种植越来越多的食物,但随着全球变暖引发更极端的天气,这将变得更加困难。危险在于,全球产量可能会开始下降,正如今年在欧洲发生的那样。这意味着将不得不开垦更多的土地来种植作物,从而导致更多的温室气体排放。
换句话说,我们可能会陷入一个恶性循环:部分由农业驱动的全球变暖将更严重地打击粮食生产,导致农业排放进一步增加,而当我们试图弥补不断升级的粮食损失时,又会引发更多的变暖。这是一个相当可怕的前景。
我们能对此做些什么?有人声称答案是在人工光源下的封闭环境中种植作物,即所谓的垂直农业。不幸的是,正如我在 2015 年报道的那样——以及一家又一家公司破产所证明的那样——这根本行不通。
根本问题在于,植物将阳光转化为食物的能力极差。通常,照射在作物上的太阳能中,只有不到 1% 最终变成了我们食用的食物。当阳光是免费的时候,即使超过 99% 被浪费掉也无关紧要。但如果你需要为生长灯的电力付费,这就成了一个巨大的问题。
[...OMITTED...]
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此外还存在土地利用问题。诚然,植物可以分层堆叠,但每公顷的种植面积需要约 13 公顷的太阳能电池板来为灯光供电,因此单位食物的总体土地利用率会增加。例如,通过使用核能可以避免这种情况,但核能既不便宜,也没有多余的供应。
因此,人们对将空气、水和电直接转化为食物产生兴趣,旨在利用太阳能电池板比植物更高效的特点来减少对土地的需求。太阳能电池板能将照射在上面的能量中的 20% 以上转化为电能,而一些实验性电池板的效率更是其 2 倍以上。

GRAHAM HUGHES / BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
其基本思路是将电能转化为微生物可以利用的化学物质,例如通过电解水产生氢气。芬兰的 Solar Foods 公司正在这样做。其工艺依赖于众多能将氢气作为能源的微生物之一。
Solar Foods 在发酵罐中培养这些细菌,同时提供 $\text{CO}_{2}$ 作为碳源,氨作为氮源,以及其他必需的营养素。其设想是使用直接空气捕集技术获取 $\text{CO}_{2}$,并利用氢气制造氨;如果由太阳能或风能供电,该过程几乎可以实现碳中和。
这些细菌被干燥后制成一种名为 Solein 的黄色粉末,其蛋白质含量高达 80%。它可以被制成蛋白棒或饮料,或者添加到糕点和面食等食物中以替代鸡蛋。联合创始人 Pasi Vainikka 表示,含有 Solein 的产品已经在美国和新加坡上市,公司希望很快能在欧盟获得批准。
Vainikka 表示,该公司的小型示范工厂运行效果甚至好于预期。“它的规模化扩展非常成功。其生产率几乎是我们早期预想的五倍。”Solar Foods 目前的目标是建设第二家工厂,年产能为 6400 吨。公司希望将 Solein 的生产成本降低到每公斤几加元,并希望将其售价提高到两倍以上,而近期蛋白质市场价格的上涨对此有所帮助。
包括 Jooules、Air Protein 和 Aerbio 在内的其他初创公司也旨在通过喂食气体的微生物来生产蛋白质。
没有理由怀疑这种被称为“气体发酵”的工艺能否大规模扩展——因为它已经实现了。在 1999 年至 2005年间,一家名为 Norferm 的挪威公司利用甲烷生产了 110,000 吨微生物蛋白用作鱼类饲料。Norferm 后来因为没有盈利而停止生产,但随着蛋白质价格上涨,目前已有几家公司在以这种方式制造微生物蛋白用作动物饲料。例如,美国公司 Calysta 在中国建设了一座年产能 20,000 吨的工厂,而丹麦的 Unibio 正在沙特阿拉伯建设一座年产能 50,000 吨的工厂。
这里最大的“但是”在于,这些公司使用的是来自化石燃料源的甲烷。这确实有一些优势——例如比种植大豆等方式需要的土地少得多——但所有的化石碳最终都会进入大气层。问题在于,利用可再生能源制造氢气、甲烷和氨目前的成本更高,因此几乎没有动力转向绿色能源——不过 Calysta 告诉我,他们正在考虑使用生物气。
气体发酵并不是从空气中制造食物的唯一方法。一些研究人员认为有更好的方法。丹麦哥本哈根大学的 Remko Boom 表示:“氢气在水中的溶解度极低,因此微生物很难获取。”Boom 认为这限制了生长速度。甲烷的溶解度仅略高一点。另一种替代方案是将 $\text{CO}_{2}$ 转化为高度可溶的简单碳化合物,例如乙酸盐。生产乙酸盐需要更多能量,但其设想是通过更快的生长速度来弥补这一点。
Boom 是乙酸盐联盟(Acetate Consortium)的一员,该项目已经证明某些微生物可以在乙酸盐上生长。“原则上,我们可以实现相当大的规模,”他说,“因此,它可能成为全球蛋白质的一个重要来源,
“如果我们能利用电力和空气制造食物,这将有助于限制全球变暖,保护野生动物并养活全世界”
这意味着我们可以将这类食品生产与土地使用脱钩。”
他说,挑战在于将生物反应器中产生的东西转化为具有吸引力的食物。目前有两种大致路线。一种是将微生物作为经过极少加工的食品原料,正如 Solar Foods 所做的那样。在这种情况下,乙酸盐联盟专注于已经获得食品用途批准的微生物,例如酵母,从而
避免了新食品获得批准这一通常缓慢的过程。(Solar Foods 在欧盟已等待批准五年。)
另一种是使用基因改造微生物来生产特定的蛋白质,例如奶酪中发现的酪蛋白。Boom 表示,纯化蛋白质比使用整个细胞昂贵得多,因此这种方法仅适用于高价值产品。
他说,没有理由认为微生物不能同时生产碳水化合物。“然而,我们预计碳水化合物不会短缺,而蛋白质则预计会出现短缺。”
然而,一个关键问题是消费者是否会接受微生物食品。即使他们接受,人们也不希望仅靠微生物生存。
这就是“电农业”(electro-ag)可以发挥作用的地方。其想法是用乙酸盐代替阳光来种植植物。
2022年,一个包括加州大学河滨分校(University of California, Riverside)的罗伯特·金克森(Robert Jinkerson)在内的团队,通过电解将 $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ 转化为乙酸盐,并利用该乙酸盐种植酵母、蘑菇和藻类。该团队计算出,将阳光转化为乙酸盐再转化为酵母的效率几乎是标准农业的 18 倍。对于藻类,效率则接近 4 倍。这些
由细菌制成的富含蛋白质的粉末(如 Solein)可以添加到食物中
是效率上的巨大飞跃。
该团队设想在覆盖着太阳能电池板的建筑中种植作物。产生的电力将用于在现场制造乙酸盐,然后通过根部供应给下方黑暗环境中的植物。金克森及其同事在 2024 年的一篇后续论文中估计,随着技术的改进,植物生产的效率可以提高 10 倍。
如果真是这样,我们每单位土地面积可以种植约 10 倍的食物,从而释放出大片土地用于野化。以这种方式种植食物还将有助于防止由极端天气引起的粮食冲击,并允许在任何地方生产食物。此外,在封闭系统中种植食物可以在很大程度上防止病虫害爆发,而病虫害会降低全球产量。
这一切听起来都很棒,但当然,事情并非如此简单。第一个障碍是植物不能简单地被喂食乙酸盐——高效利用乙酸盐需要一种仅在幼苗期活跃的化学途径。金克森的团队目前正在对植物进行基因改造以实现这一点。
没有根本理由认为这无法实现。毕竟,一些植物已经在黑暗中生长——许多寄生植物完全依赖于从其他植物那里窃取的养分。植物还将大量能量投入到生长茎和叶等我们通常不食用的结构中。那么理想情况下,我们也将改造这些植物以去除多余的结构。同样,像大花 the Rafflesia 这样没有根或叶的寄生植物证明了这是可能的。
另一种方法是在乙酸盐上培养植物细胞,而不是培养整个植物或微生物。
SOLARFOODS
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许多公司正致力于通过在发酵罐中培养植物细胞来生产食物。例如,去年我报道了通过这种方式制造巧克力的尝试。我也品尝了一些,味道相当不错。
目前,这些细胞是在含有传统种植食物衍生糖分等物质的培养基中生长的,因此它们仍然具有显著的环境足迹。如果将培养基完全由可再生能源衍生,情况将会改变。在我看来,从面粉到牛油果酱,大量食物都可以通过这种方式制造。
另一种选择是完全舍弃活细胞。一家名为 Savor 的美国初创公司正在将合成气(一种由化石燃料衍生的氢气和一氧化碳混合物)转化为可食用脂肪,以创造一种类似黄油的产品。而氢气和一氧化碳可以通过可再生电力来制造。
所有这些不同的方法可能都将发挥作用。“我们可能不会依赖于某一条特定的路径,”Boom 表示。
没有人指望由空气和电力制造的食物能在短期内取代传统的农作物和畜牧场,尤其是因为这将需要比我们目前发电量更多的可再生电力。但如果在未来几十年里,我们能以这种方式生产相当比例的食物,这将产生巨大的影响,有助于限制全球变暖,保护野生动物并喂养全世界。
这就是为什么政府应该采取更多措施来鼓励太阳能食物(solar foods),从资助研究到放宽监管障碍,以及帮助它们提高竞争力。作为个人,我们也可以通过购买这些产品来提供帮助。也许当人们聚集在一起庆祝《新科学家》创刊 140 周年时,他们吃喝的所有东西都将来自虚无的空气。
人工智能毁灭人类的可能性有多大?直到最近,这还不是大多数人担心的问题,但在最近几周,这一讨论已突破进入主流视野。你可能看过这样的标题:AI 杀死所有人类的可能性大于 10%,但这实际上意味着什么?
诚实的回答是:几乎没有任何意义。没有人能给出一个具有科学意义的 AI 末日概率——AI 圈内人士将其称为 p(doom)——因为这根本不是一个科学问题。该领域领先评论员给出的 p(doom) 数值从 0 到 95% 以上不等,这一事实证明了这一点——涵盖整个概率光谱意味着它没告诉我们任何信息。
这是否意味着你不应该担心 AI 接管世界?我无法回答这个问题,因为它取决于一个我们没有合理方式推导出的数字。我能做的是将其与其他场景进行比较。让我们从一个简单的例子开始:你输掉彩票的机会是多少?
首先,与任何概率问题一样,我们必须做出一些假设。我假设你确实买了一张彩票,并且参加的是英国国家彩票。赢得任何奖项(从免费再玩一次到头奖)的概率约为 1 比 4.9,或 20.4%。这意味着你输掉的概率是 79.6%,这就是彩票赚钱的方式——大多数玩家都会输。
让我们转向更严肃的话题:你在道路交通碰撞中死亡的概率是多少?根据世界卫生组织(WHO)的数据,
“标题说 AI 杀死所有人类的可能性大于 10%,但这实际上意味着什么?”
每年有略高于 100 万人死于道路交通碰撞,因此这种情况发生在您身上的概率大约是 100 万除以 80 亿,即大约 0.01%。
当然,这种算法是错误的。对你个人而言,概率高度取决于包括居住地在内的许多因素,但我们可以将该数字作为一个大致的参考。关键在于,这个概率低到足以让我们不必时刻担心,但又高到足以让我们采取一些预防措施以减轻可能性,从系安全带到过马路时左右观察。
这些例子涉及的是个人风险,但 AI 末日将发生在所有人身上。以气候变化为例,这或许是最紧迫的全球风险。由于几个原因,为这种威胁分配概率要复杂得多。与中彩票或死于道路交通事故不同,气候变化不是一个二元结果,而是一个高于工业化前水平的持续升温过程。它也无法通过已知统计数据计算得出,因为我们只有一个世界,且结果在未来。最后,我们在 2100 年将经历的全球变暖程度取决于我们从现在到那时所采取的行动。
然而,这并不意味着我们无法科学地评估风险。利用经过广泛测试的气候模型,我们可以产生许多“平行世界”,从而计算出统计数据,向我们展示不同的气候政策可能导致的不同结果。
根据去年发布的最新联合国环境规划署《排放差距报告》,在当前政策下,本世纪全球升温超过 1.5℃ 的概率为 100%,超过 2℃ 的概率为 92%,超过 3℃ 的概率为 20%。这些数字也带有误差线,但大致勾勒出了我们前进的方向。在最强有力的气候行动假设下,超过 1.5℃、2℃ 和 3℃ 的概率分别下降到 79%、22% 和 0%。显然,这些行动值得采取。
然而,与 AI 突然抹除世界相比,气候变化是一个相对缓慢的风险。一个更好的类比可能是小行星撞击。我们知道小行星末日确实会发生——
IAN DAVIDSON / SOPA IMAGES / SHUTTERSTOCK

CLIVE MASON / GETTY IMAGES

AI 可能不会找上你,而且可能看起来不像终结者
只需询问恐龙便可知——但风险是什么?为了理解这一点,我们需要知道几件事:有多少颗小行星,其中一颗撞击地球的概率是多少,以及它可能造成的破坏。
幸运的是,这些数字都得到了很好的量化。正如你所预料的,较大的小行星既更容易被发现,也更致命。根据 NASA 的数据,我们已经发现了 90% 以上直径超过 1 公里的所有小行星。
此外,我们能够高精度地预测它们的未来位置,因此我们知道,在接下来的一个世纪内,一颗小行星撞击地球的可能性要么不存在,要么极低。抹除恐龙的小行星希克苏鲁伯(Chicxulub)直径约为 10 公里,因此,我们基本上可以免受比这小一个数量级及以上规模物体的威胁,这是一个好消息。最新的估计表明,直径 1 公里或更大的物体撞击大约每 600,000 年才发生一次。
这并不是说我们完全免于小行星的威胁,因为有更多的小型小行星,因此它们撞击的概率更高。一个重要的尺寸阈值是
140 米,通常被称为“城市杀手”。我们还没有发现所有这类小行星,但我们正在努力,最新的估计表明,这种尺寸以上的小行星大约每 20,000 年撞击一次。
在某种意义上,小行星是令人安心的,因为我们可以预见到它们的到来,但致命病毒的威胁又如何呢?正如我们从 covid-19 疫情的经历中深切体会到的,一种在全球范围内传播的病毒有可能凭空出现,并颠覆我们所认知的生活。但是,我们能否用科学的方法预测这种情况发生的概率?
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从统计数据来看,在过去大约一个世纪里,规模最大的大流行病是 1918 年的流感,估计造成了 5000 万 人死亡。始于 20 世纪 80 年代且至今仍在持续的艾滋病(HIV)大流行已导致超过 4000 万 人死亡。关于 covid-19 导致死亡人数的估计因统计方式而异,但世界卫生组织(WHO)给出的数字是 700 万 以上。其他各种流感大流行和区域性传染病疫情造成的死亡人数较少,从数百人、数千人到数百万人不等。
换句话说,我们应该预见到最严重的事件发生频率较低,而较轻微的事件发生频率较高。这与小行星风险的模式完全一致。与小行星不同,大流行病在爆发前更难被观测到,因此其风险评估更像气候变化,即使用模型来分析一系列情景。虽然估计值各异,但一个普遍接受的数字是,每年发生 covid-19 级别大流行病的概率为 2 到 3%,这意味着我们应该预见到每 33 到 50 年会发生一次。
我希望我已经阐明了,估计 AI 末日(AI apocalypse)的概率与我讨论过的任何其他情景都不同。无论是彩票、致命的交通事故还是小行星撞击,我们都可以运用统计学和科学推理来回答问题。而对于 p(doom),目前还没有科学框架。
那么我们该怎么办?
在个人层面,在这些数字获得严肃的支撑之前,你应该停止听信那些随口抛出的数字——AI 研究人员应该致力于构建这种支撑,而不仅仅是进行预言。对于政策制定者而言——他们理想情况下必须为所有可能导致伤害的情景制定计划,即使在面对不确定性时也是如此——我建议考虑监管,但不要仓促采取行动。
不过最终,你的风险感知将取决于个人偏好。例如,我不认同英伟达(Nvidia)老板黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)最近的观点,他认为到 2030 年发生 AI 末日的概率为 0%。我会将这个数字设定为某个数值,虽然可能很小,但大于零,仅仅是因为我认为物理定律并没有排除这种可能性。除此之外,我无法给出更强有力的结论——但与气候变化或下一次全球大流行病等风险相比,这并不是一件让我夜不能寐的事情。
雅各布·亚伦(Jacob Aron)是《新科学家》(New Scientist)的高级编辑,负责数学、物理和技术方面的写作。
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我正在阅读:英国科幻大师阿拉斯泰尔·雷诺兹(Alastair Reynolds)的短篇小说集《天鹰座裂缝之外》(Beyond the Aquila Rift)。非常适合碎片化阅读。
我正在观看:《急诊室的故事》(ER)。之前从未看过,现在它成了我的每日刷剧之乐。
我正在思考:思考 AI 接下来到底会发生什么。
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J Henry Fair
布鲁斯博物馆(Bruce Museum)
你是否知道这张照片里拍的是什么?乍一看它可能完全像一幅抽象画,但实际上,这是一张航拍照片。那些像白色蛛网一样的部分是气泡,绿色的是藻类,而直线则是水池的边缘。
这是位于德国杜伊斯堡、紧邻莱茵河的卡斯勒费尔德(Kasslerfeld)污水处理厂,该厂处理来自附近企业和家庭的废水。
“这是我系列作品的一部分,旨在以创意方式展示环境破坏,从而吸引观众,”摄影师兼环境活动家 J Henry Fair 说道。
虽然污水处理厂有助于最大限度地减少人类对河流的影响,但 指出,它们并不能去除所有污染物。例如,它们无法过滤掉所有的微塑料。 表示,我们所有人的体内都有微塑料,但其后果尚不明确。
他一直利用小型飞机记录人类活动对景观的影响,航拍视角往往能揭示许多从地面无法看到的东西。这张照片出自康涅狄格州格林威治布鲁斯博物馆的一个新展览——《自然的大裂口:J Henry 航拍摄影展》(A Great Breach in Nature: Aerial photography by J Henry )。
“我最初是顺便拍到它的,后来策展人们对此很感兴趣,于是我回去重新拍摄。但随后我找不到它了。我们在杜伊斯堡周围飞了很久,就在我们准备放弃搜寻时,终于发现了它,” 在其网站上随附的照片评论中说道。
该展览将持续到 2027 年 2 月 7 日。
Michael Le Page
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书籍
《霍金》(Hawking)
格雷厄姆·法梅洛(Graham Farmelo)著
John Murray(英国);
Bantam(美国,out 24 November)
关于斯蒂芬·霍金,是否还有什么新鲜事可以讲述?这位于2018年去世的世界著名物理学家,一直是多部书籍、纪录片和电影的主角,他本人也撰写了数十部巨著。在格雷厄姆·法梅洛所著的《霍金》一书中,我们现在拥有了第一部获得授权的传记,并由此获得了来自霍金家族及其他人士此前未公开的资料。尽管如此,他的家庭生活可能是本书中最无趣的部分——真正引人入胜的内容在于对他晚年生活的重新评估。
部分原因在于几乎所有传记都面临的一个共同问题:人们及其家人在因你真正想阅读的那件事而成名之前,往往不会做任何有趣的事情。全书 17 个章节中的前五个章节详细涵盖了霍金的生活,这得益于他的父母弗兰克和伊莎贝尔撰写的详细文档,其中包括前者一部未发表的自传。但我们实际上学到了什么?
对于一个出生于 1942年的人来说,霍金拥有一个相当典型的中产阶级战后童年,这并不令人意外。他的父亲喜欢家居改良项目并与霍金共用一台望远镜,而他的母亲则负责大部分的育儿工作。这家人曾险些被纳粹V1飞行炸弹击中。他们自己种植蔬菜以补充匮乏的配给。所有这些都经过法梅洛令人印象深刻的学术研究记录并标注了脚注,像霍金这样的人物当然值得这样的历史调查,但这并不是一次惊心动魄的阅读体验。

关于霍金被诊断出患有运动神经元病,以及他的家人在得知他可能在十年内去世时的反应,这些素材不出所料地更触动人心,他与第一任妻子简之间日益增长的浪漫情愫以及最终的婚姻也是如此。
“随着几十年的流逝,霍金的科学观点变得越来越平庸,甚至完全错误”
直到书的大约四分之一处,当霍金
但我再次禁不住觉得,所有这些都是被探讨过很多次的内容,尤其是来自简的自传以及由此改编的电影《理论一切》(The Theory of Everything),片中由埃迪·雷德梅恩饰演霍金。
ELEANORBENTALL / CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES
成为一名职业科学家时,我的兴趣才开始增加。20世纪60年代末和70年代初的物理学版图与今天截然不同,法梅洛在让你沉浸在这个世界方面做得非常出色。
法梅洛写道,黑洞虽然在今天依然令我们困惑,但大多已不再具有争议,但在当时被许多人认为是“尼斯湖水怪的宇宙对应物”——这意味着霍金在研究黑洞时实际上是在冒险。
正是在这里,一个令人不悦的重复主题首次出现——霍金经常忽略对合作者的认可。在20世纪70年代工作的多个时间点,霍金发表的论文中没有列出那些根据典型科学规范本应成为共同作者的研究人员。法梅洛强调了这一点,但并未试图探讨其背后的心理原因,尽管事实是
已故的斯蒂芬·霍金曾在剑桥大学任教并从事研究
这与霍金在晚年追求并享受的名声和崇拜之间存在着一条清晰的主线。
尽管如此,法梅洛在一部获得授权的传记中,重新挖掘这些在霍金成名之路上被掩盖的被遗忘的争端,这一事实应当受到赞赏。
法梅洛(Farmelo)并非第一个对霍金采取修正主义视角的作者——查尔斯·赛夫(Charles Seife)在 2021 年就率先在《霍金霍金》(*Hawking Hawking*)一书中做到了这一点。该书探讨了霍金名声的塑造过程,但未能吸引英国出版商,或许是因为人们认为这本书在他的祖国过于具有争议。随着霍金的生命进一步成为历史,我想我们可以期待更多类似的作品。
诚然,霍金在 20 世纪 70 年代对黑洞提出了一些真正具有开创性的想法,最著名的便是“霍金辐射”,即黑洞实际上可以发射粒子并最终甚至蒸发。尽管大多数物理学家相信它确实存在,但我们至今尚未探测到霍金辐射,这也是他从未获得诺贝尔奖的原因——法梅洛解释说,这件事显然是霍金心中的一个痛处。
但在那之后,当他凭借那本著名的、难以读懂的《时间简史》名声大噪时情况如何?随着几十年的时间流逝,霍金的科学观点变得越来越平庸,甚至完全错误。
正如法梅洛所指出的,他经常输掉科学赌注,最显著的是他认为希格斯玻色子不存在——霍金在出演《生活大爆炸》的一集中表达了这一观点,而该集在播出几个月后,这种粒子就被实际发现了。
像 20 世纪 90 年代和 21 世纪初的许多同辈一样,霍金痴迷于弦理论及其变体 M 理论,这是一种理解宇宙的框架,但在今天看来,它越来越像是一条死胡同。
我自己在他生命末期报道其研究的经历也证实了这一点——他经常抛出一些听起来很吸引人的标题,但物理学家们会礼貌地在私下告诉我,他们觉得这些工作并没有什么特别的新意,或者不够详尽。
法梅洛在后记中在一定程度上承认了这一点,但没有深入探讨霍金为何以这种方式工作。我认为现在可能是我们探讨这个问题的时候了。是因为缺乏原创想法,是因为他追求名声的倾向,还是因为随着病情恶化,他在沟通上遇到困难,导致他难以发表传统的科学论文?尽管说出来显得不礼貌,但我诚实的答案可能是这三者兼有。
那么,这让“霍金”这个人物(而非那个被神化的符号)处于什么样的位置?如果你已经详细了解过他的生活,我不确定你能从这本书中获得多少启发。如果你只将霍金视为一名名人科学家,法梅洛的书能让你更接近这个人的真实面貌,尽管我认为赛夫做得更好。如果现在是 2042 年,而你正在撰写一篇关于霍金生命的百年回顾,法梅洛的学术研究是一个极佳的起点——但我希望在现在和那时之间,我们能继续解读霍金。在谈论一个曾为时间旅行者举办派对(书中奇怪地没有提到这件事)的人时,我认为没有理由将我的推荐仅限于现在。
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达维德·阿巴特切斯基安(Davide Abbatescianni)认为,一部令人心碎的太空动画是对我们时代的科幻挑战
电影《Moonfish》,丹尼尔·兹韦雷夫(Daniel Zvereff)导演,待发行
在歌曲《太空奇遇》(Space Oddity)中,大卫·鲍伊饰演的汤姆少校漂离了地面控制中心的触及范围,徘徊在技术与恐惧之间。丹尼尔·兹韦雷夫的动画片《Moonfish》中的主角也处于一个同样孤独的轨道上,但这部作品摧毁了太空旅行的幻想,转而描绘工作、辐射、配额以及在近乎绝对的孤独中缓慢发生的心理崩溃。
卡修斯(Cassius,摩根·斯佩克特饰)是一名深空矿工,他正与同伴维斯珀(Vesper,刘玉英饰)前往一颗小行星。工作极其残酷:必须完成开采配额才能赢得回家的路费,否则将永远被困在那里。当维斯珀在一次事故中丧生后,卡修斯必须独自完成任务,陪伴他的只有她的金鱼(见下文)以及他那不可靠的意识。
《Moonfish》上个月在威尼斯双年展首映,制作成本仅为 €200,000。兹韦雷夫将这种限制转化为一种美学:采用强烈的黑白绘图,由简单的线条构建,使用方正的画幅和稀疏的环境,
NEW EUROPE FILMS
使得卡修斯的宇宙显得既宏大又令人窒息。那些看起来可能未完成的画面,恰恰是表达疏离感的正确视觉语言——一个男人在虚无之中被简化为几个脆弱的标记。
这个世界的科学细节被留作推测;科学最终起到了施压的作用。因此,卡修斯的身体成了另一个在机械故障前先崩溃的系统——长期暴露在太空辐射中会产生后果,需要药物维持功能。小行星采矿并非英雄式的探索,而是一种经济逻辑:当技术成本过高时,便利用弱势劳动力。这是电影中最阴郁的基调之一,也是最可信的基调之一。
但最引人入胜的元素是卡修斯与那条鱼建立的纽带。随着悲伤和孤独的袭来,鱼开始用维斯珀的声音说话。这些对话成为了电影的哲学核心,触及了意识、记忆、死亡以及生命与非生命的区别。这本可能陷入古怪的幻想,但刘玉英赋予了这条鱼一种诡异的温柔,而斯佩克特则让卡修斯的疲惫感具有了生理上的真实感。
《Moonfish》最终关心的不是人类是否在开采小行星,而是谁在开采,以及在什么样的条件下开采。它的太空设定放大了地球上现有的担忧:不稳定的劳动力、对技术的依赖、孤独以及对耐力的货币化。就像汤姆少校一样,卡修斯离那些本应让他保持联系的系统越来越远。不同之处在于,这个“地面控制中心”不仅仅是遥远,它还是他的雇主。
《新科学家》推荐
杰克林·宽(Jacklin Kwan)
专题编辑
伦敦
《当我们不再理解世界》(When We Cease to Understand the World)是一部中篇小说,探讨了当科学揭开其核心假设——即我们可以理解现实——时会发生什么。
本杰明·拉巴图特(Benjamín Labatut)笔下的人物都是真实的科学家,这些人
将探索推向了极致,以至于这种探索只能给他们带来危险。他描绘的景象是可怕的:科学将人们带向真正的启蒙之点,但这种启蒙是深刻的反人类的。
他在讨论科学时极少随意发挥。例如,我知道数学远见者亚历山大·格罗滕迪克(Alexander Grothendieck)——书中的关键人物——在成为隐士之前彻底改变了代数几何。但我不知道他的隐居生活是否是因为他瞥见了“心的核心”,即数学最深处的中心对象。拉巴图特将这种启示想象成面对一个美丽、恐怖且长满眼睛的天使。
这本书将令你久久不能忘怀。
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书籍
《焦虑与毛发》(Anxious and Hairy)
朱迪·韦昂(Judy Wearing)
Icon Books
拿起朱迪·韦昂的《焦虑与毛发》,你很可能会对其篇幅感到惊讶:她怎么可能用 300 页的内容来写……毛发?这归功于她勤勉的研究、极具感染力的好奇心以及亲切的口吻。在读完这本关于副标题中所称的“人类毛发的进化与文化”的详尽探索后,我惊讶地发现自己竟然忽略了如此之多理所当然的事情。

MARTIN PARR / MAGNUM PHOTOS
从一开始,韦昂就致力于争取那些可能持怀疑态度的读者,她挑战了对毛发广泛(且可以说通常带有性别歧视色彩的)边缘化对待,揭示出一种触及“人类几乎每一个方面”的“生物学奇迹”。她自己的痴迷可以追溯到她在牛津大学的研究生学习时期,《焦虑与毛发》建立在她对交配行为的研究基础之上,特别是“人类毛发分布区域的适应性益处”。
为什么我们进化出在某些地方长有簇状毛发,而其他地方却没有?即便在现在,相关研究仍然有限。正如韦昂所指出的:“奇怪的是,人类对螨类和鸟类交配相关特征的关注,竟然超过了对我们自身物种‘羽毛’(毛发)的关注。”
她写道,最早的毛发化石证据可以追溯到大约 2.45 亿 年前的犬齿兽(cynodonts):它们是温血的、类爬行动物,也是哺乳动物的祖先。它们进化出皮毛用于保暖,但一些毛囊继续进化以产生乳汁和体味。智人随着时间的推移脱掉了皮毛大衣,但并没有看起来那么彻底。所谓的“裸猿”实际上与我们的灵长类亲属拥有相同数量的毛囊,除了脚底和手掌之外的每个地方都是如此;但它们产生的主要是细薄的“毳毛”。
通过性选择,更粗、更成熟的毛发进化出在特定位置生长,以实现高度多样化的目的。头上的头发有助于调节体温,同时提供
“在牛津大学,韦昂曾‘伏击’她的同行,要求对方提供‘敏感部位’的样本”

JUDY WEARING
防晒保护,这解释了密度、颜色和卷曲度的多样性。例如,卷发能阻挡更多的太阳辐射,同时保持头部凉爽。在男性中,这种平衡还涉及面部毛发,韦昂探讨了浓密胡须(这会威慑性竞争对手)与脱发之间的联系。
关于我们其他毛发区域的科学解释则更具推测性。她写道,腋毛的进化可能是为了传播我们独特的化学混合物,从而辅助社交沟通并帮助吸引基因匹配的配偶。至于阴毛,韦昂倾向于的假设是它进化成了一种“欺骗检测器”,通过捕捉体液和气味,为配偶选择提供信息并传达性活动状态,尽管她强调这一点尚未经过验证。
即便存在所有这些未知因素,韦昂的进化视角也让毛发变得出人意料地有趣。文化则增加了一层同样浓厚的维度——并解释了书名中的“焦虑”。在错误的地方毛发过多,或在正确的地方毛发不足,
从你打理发型的方式到发质,毛发是一门复杂的学问
与抑郁、焦虑和较低的生活质量相关联。
自最早的社会起,无论阶级高低,美发一直是一种自我表达的形式。古埃及最著名的法老之一拉美西斯二世曾使用指甲花(henna)来掩盖白发。而一名埋葬于公元前 14 世纪的女性遗骸显示,她使用了 70 根彩色接发。
[...OMITTED...]
甚至决定将头发盘起还是披下,也是一种社会中介的行为,且往往具有政治色彩。女性飘逸的长发传达出女性的性感,但也可能被遮盖、束缚或剪除,以此作为一种控制手段。Wearing写道,头发在字面意义上也曾是生死攸关的问题。基因和地理因素导致的自然差异,曾被用来证明种族偏见、虐待和奴役的正当性。在种族隔离时期的南非,头发质地曾是一项官方分类标准,决定了人们的权利与自由。
《Anxious and Hairy》反映了Wearing细致且广泛的研究,但其叙事动力源自她对头发的热情以及实地报道。在牛津大学期间,她通过向同行们“伏击”请求采集他们身上“有趣部位”的样本而崭露头角。随后,她的探索之旅从巴黎的高端美发沙龙一直延伸到底特律的一次胡须展。
她发现,我们这些“发簇”所代表的含义仍在不断演变。限制眉毛活动的肉毒杆菌毒素可能会影响我们的沟通和共情能力。总的来说,Wearing兑现了她的承诺,彻底改变了我们看待头发的方式。
艾尔·亨特(Elle Hunt)是一位常驻英国诺里奇的作家。
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《新科学家》读书会的九月读物是一次挑战性的时空边缘之旅——但艾莉森·弗鲁德(Alison Flood)表示,大多数成员都乐在其中。
艾莉森·弗鲁德是《新科学家》的图书与文化负责人,并负责运营每月的《新科学家》读书会。
书籍
《时空之边》(The Edge of Space-time)
钱达·普雷斯科德-温斯坦(Chanda Prescod-Weinstein)
钱达·普雷斯科德-温斯坦
九月份,《新科学家》读书会通过钱达·普雷斯科德-温斯坦的《时空之边》来考验集体的脑力。这本书的副标题是“粒子、诗歌与宇宙梦幻舞曲”,由这位《新科学家》专栏作家兼理论物理学家撰写,旨在解释我们的宇宙,从量子领域到黑洞的内部运作机制。
要消化这些内容非常不容易,但正如钱达在书中所写,这一切努力都是值得的:“我们应该关注物理学,因为在某种程度上,它是我们作为一个物种学习如何运用心智的方式。”在为读书会成员撰写的一篇独家随笔中,她进一步挑战我们去掌握时空的量子特性。她写道:“花时间面对物理学中那些令人感到奇怪的部分,可以帮助我们更好地应对困难的政治问题。考虑到我们面临的危机——种族灭绝、气候变化、对跨性别者的攻击——我们现在比以往任何时候都更需要批判性思维能力。”
正如成员 Dee55 所言,无论是在物理学内容上,还是在成员们于 Discord 频道中就本书展开的深入讨论方面,这本书都是一场“狂野之旅”。
我非常喜欢这本书。得益于钱达亲切、鼓励且清晰的写作风格,我在读完后对物理学的了解增加了一些。我喜欢她如何巧妙地引入文学和流行文化的引用来辅助论点,以及她坚定地告诉我们:“这应该是件有趣的事,而且最后没有考试。”她在我们的聊天中再次强调:“引导人们接触这些材料的一部分在于告诉他们,这并不是只有……孤独的天才才能思考的事情。你们
“我们应该关注物理学,因为在某种程度上,它是我们作为一个物种学习如何运用心智的方式”
同样有权接触它。这也是你们的宇宙。”
许多读书会成员也对此倾心。乔迪(Jodie)表示她“非常享受其中,尽管有时确实让我头疼”——我想这很正常,乔迪!——而 Dee55 发现钱达的解释拓展了思维:“我曾周期性地尝试理解‘量子玩意儿’,结果总是感到相当困惑但又好奇——而这一次感觉有点不同,就像我虽然没有完全掌握某些东西,但或许捕捉到了它转瞬即逝的碎片。”
“我非常喜欢《时空之边》,”DavidCl 写道,“这就像是坐下来与一位比我聪明得多、睿智得多的好朋友共度时光,而她正试图解释她所做的工作是什么,为什么这么做,以及是什么在驱动她前行。”
这本书充满了文学典故,以及钱达强烈表达的政治观点——并非所有人都对此认可。Katita2026 认为钱达的政治立场和主观见解对物理学内容的干扰过多:“普雷斯科德-温斯坦博士是一位出色的讲述者……[但]尽管我很享受阅读过程,但当她试图让物理学去契合她的政治观点时,我感到很吃力。”
这是一个被读书会成员以极高敏感度探讨的问题。Alan\_P 写道:“我同意某些联系确实有些牵强,但我认为作者不仅在试图展示物理学如何定义宇宙,还在展示她如何基于特定的背景去想象那个宇宙。”
总而言之,我认为这本书在读书会成员中获得了一定的(挑战性)成功——让我们期待下一本。
您可以在 newscientist.com / bookclubextras 找到钱达·普雷斯科德-温斯坦(Chanda Prescod-Weinstein)的文章和访谈。
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Exit Party
艾米莉·圣约翰·曼德尔 (Emily St. John Mandel)
十月,《新科学家》读书会将开始阅读投机小说领域最知名作家之一——艾米莉·圣约翰·曼德尔的最新小说。
这位曾创作流感大流行小说《第十一站》(Station Eleven) 的作者在她的新书《Exit Party》中探讨了量子纠缠和平行世界。在书中,主角阿里 (Ari) 和格洛丽亚 (Gloria) 参加了一场派对,而一些神秘的分身似乎在派对上出现。
读书会成员可以阅读该小说开篇的节选,该节选将于 10 月 2 日起在 newscientist.com / bookclubextras 提供,以及阅读我们的科幻专栏作家艾米莉·H·威尔逊 (Emily H. Wilson) 的评论——她称这本书“正如粉丝们所期待的那样,优雅且执行精妙”。本月晚些时候还将有对圣约翰·曼德尔的采访。
您可以加入我们的 Discord 在线社区参与讨论,网址为 bit.ly / 4ewuwyo —— 如果您还没有加入,请注册与我们一起阅读。
阅读愉快!
加入《新科学家》免费读书会
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19 September, p 7
来自新西兰旺加努伊的 Alistair Fraser
陶哲轩提出了一个令人信服的观点,即数学不仅仅是为了产生答案:发现必须被理解、解释并纳入更广泛的知识体系中。但我在想,他担心 AI 产生数学成果的速度可能快于数学家吸收的速度,这一担忧是否包含了一个值得质疑的假设。
为什么未来的数学发现速度应该受限于人类传统上能够处理它的速度?如果 AI 不仅能够发现数学,而且能够验证、组织、连接并解释它,那么人类的理解力并不需要消失——但它可能不再是瓶颈。
因此,数学家的角色不仅不会削弱,反而可能会转向决定哪些问题至关重要、审问机器生成的知识、识别重要性以及确定发现应当引导的方向。更大的危险可能不在于 AI 产生数学成果的速度太快,而在于我们试图将一种根本性的新能力,安置在为人类智力劳动匮乏时代而开发的结构之中。
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5 September, p 20
来自英国赫特福德郡韦尔温花园城的 Jon Arch
Michael Le Page 关于防止肌肉流失药物的文章让我想起了克伦特罗(clenbuterol)这种药物。它被用于治疗哮喘,但也会导致大鼠和小鼠的骨骼肌质量迅速且显著地增加。
不出所料,在这一发现出现几年后,几位举重运动员突然发现他们需要用克伦特罗来治疗哮喘。现在,这种药物已被国际奥委会检测的运动员禁用。肌肉生长抑制素(myostatin)和激活素(activin)拮抗剂是否也会面临同样的命运?
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Letters, 19 September
来自法国 Les Essarts-le-Roi 的 Eric Kvaalen
Bryn Glover 担心碳-14 dating 可能不准确,因为空气中这种同位素的数量会发生变化,尤其是在剧烈的太阳风暴之后。他不必担心:人们早就知道其数量会变化,而古木正是我们解决这个问题的办法。
在过去的几十年里,研究人员通过观察古木中树轮的宽窄模式,从而确定树木生存的年代,以此创建了碳-14, dating 的校准曲线。然后,通过测量碳-14, the calibration is achieved and can be used for other organic material.
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12 September, p 10
来自英国埃塞克斯郡哈尔斯特德的 Jane Giffould
我很高兴读到,神奇蘑菇中的致幻化合物裸盖菇素(psilocybin)有一天可能会缓解周围神经病变中出现的麻木和刺痛感,由于化疗,我在过去九年里一直深受其苦。这种副作用对我来说一直在增加,而旨在帮助消除它的药物完全没有效果。如果裸盖菇素有效,那就请尽快推出吧。我只希望它不会与无数其他化疗相关药物产生相互作用,从而产生更多的副作用。
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19 September, p 12
来自约旦安曼的 Ahmad Aljesirawi:
关于免疫细胞可能会启动分娩收缩的发现令人着迷。我想知道是否还有另一个值得研究的联系。
关于人类吸引力的研究表明,体味有时可能会影响配偶选择,包括可能与某些免疫系统基因差异相关的偏好。简单来说,我们有时会被那些免疫遗传概况与自己不同的伴侣所吸引。
母亲与父亲之间——以及因此产生的母亲与胎儿之间——的这些免疫差异,是否与这项新研究中描述的免疫信号传导有任何关系?例如,对胎儿或父亲抗原的识别,是否会直接或间接地促使孕晚期子宫内母体免疫细胞的激活或招募?这是否会影响研究中描述的细胞因子或趋化因子信号传导、巨噬细胞活动,或向子宫肌肉细胞的线粒体转移?
我并不是在暗示这就是既定机制,但我认为这提出了一个有趣的问题:在配偶吸引力中可能发挥作用的免疫系统差异,是否在随后的怀孕和分娩启动中也具有生物学作用?
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Letters, 12 September
来自英国布里根德波斯考尔的 Greg Nuttgens:在讨论跳蚤治疗对环境的影响时,Jens Christian Jensenius 认为口服方法可能不会通过动物排出。但一些用于羊和牛驱虫治疗的化学物质(与跳蚤治疗药物相似)确实会通过肠道排出。它们会对蜣螂和其他以粪便为食并分解粪便的昆虫产生严重影响,从而降低生物多样性,并减缓粪便养分进入土壤的速度。这些化学物质在农场和家庭使用中都应被禁止。
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来自澳大利亚墨尔本的 Ulrich Seydel:
在寻找暗物质的过程中,研究人员是否本末倒置了?我们知道暗物质具有引力效应,但据我所知,其余部分均为推测。在过去的几十年里,建立关于暗物质的假设并基于这些假设设计实验并没有太大的效果。停止猜测并保持开放的心态继续观察,难道不会更有成效吗?

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请将信件发送至 letters@newscientist.com;条款详见 newscientist.com / letters。寄至 New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY 的信件将会延迟处理。
阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的广义相对论解释了引力时间膨胀(12 September, p 22)。250 万 只动物在 2025 年被用于英国的科学研究(19 September, p 32)。
乔纳森·奥本海姆(Jonathan Oppenheim)在 2023 年打的那个赌,即便赔率是 5000 to 1.,也相当慷慨。但如果他赢了,可能会改变我们对宇宙的看法。这位物理学家打赌时空(以及随之而来的引力)并非由量子理论主导。这与主流物理学截然相反,主流观点认为引力最终必须是量子的,就像其他基本力一样——即便我们目前还无法算出它是如何实现的。
这个赌约虽然带有戏谑色彩,但其探讨的问题却非常严肃,或许代表了现代物理学中最难以解决的谜题。尽管奥本海姆凭借其“后量子”引力理论仍处于边缘地位,但他越来越确信同行们应该关注这一理论——尤其是考虑到其他替代方案的复杂程度。他说:“有这么多人认为我们生活在 11 个维度中,存在超弦,且时空是涌现的,但他们看着这个理论却称其为激进。但如果你退一步客观思考,情况恰恰相反——这是你能拥有的最保守的理论。”
不仅如此。如果接受该模型中或许最具争议的创新,奥本海姆的计算表明,它可能会阐明现代物理学的另一个巨大谜团:那些似乎提供了宇宙中大部分引力推动力的不可见暗物质的本质。难道他真的发现了某些关键线索?
几十年来,科学家们一直试图调和现代物理学的两大支柱:主导微观尺度粒子和力行为的量子理论,以及描述引力并决定宇宙在最大尺度上如何运行的阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的广义相对论。每一
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个支柱都经过了广泛的压力测试且依然稳固。然而,根据我们目前的理解,两者在根本上是不兼容的。
量子理论通过交换量子粒子(这些粒子以不同方式将物质结合在一起)来解释三种基本力——电磁力、强核力和弱核力——的运作方式。但根据广义相对论,大质量物体产生引力并非通过交换量子粒子,而是通过扭曲周围的时空,导致它们相互“坠入”。
每种理论在其领域内都运行得极其出色:量子力解释了构成我们所坐椅子的物质是如何结合在一起的;引力则解释了当我们试图坐下却没坐到椅子上时,身体为何会砰的一声摔在地上。但这种共存关系在宏观尺度与微观尺度相遇时便崩溃了:例如,当量子粒子跨越一个大质量黑洞的事件视界时,或者在宇宙大爆炸的最早瞬间,当时我们已知的宇宙还只是一个极小的质量和能量点。
将引力纳入量子范畴长期以来被证明非常棘手,但一种激进的方法可能是答案,利亚·克雷恩(Leah Crane)发现
绝大多数物理学家认为,最可能的解决方案是某种形式的量子引力,其中引力是由像其他力一样微小的量子碎片构建而成的。在极小的尺度上,爱因斯坦理论中平滑扭曲的时空将会崩溃并像素化,就像一张被过度放大的图像。
量化的方法有很多种

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引力和时空。其中最知名的是弦理论,它提出了微小的、卷曲的额外维度的存在。另一个备受青睐的竞争者——圈量子引力,则将平滑的时空描述为由更深层的几何“颗粒”基础网络演化而来的。
伦敦大学学院的物理学家奥本海姆(Oppenheim)并不认同这些观点。“在量子引力中,认为引力可以用时空来描述的观念崩溃了,但每个人仍然相信它是量子的,而不是一种时空理论,”他说。他认为,如果任何继承理论想要重现广义相对论的成功,至关重要的一点是它必须维持该理论的图景,即将引力视为在连续且不可分割的时空中,在质量之间起作用的一种力。后量子引力正是这样做的。“如果你认为引力在根本上是一种时空理论,那么这就是为你准备的理论,”奥本海姆说。
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该模型及其底层数学非常复杂,但其目标很简单:从我们确切了解的各种量子场开始,不对时空进行量子化,然后观察会发生什么。经过多年的艰苦工作,奥本海姆发现,到目前为止,它似乎能出人意料地很好地描述现实。至关重要的是,引力在小尺度上与量子力学相匹配,而在大尺度上则表现得如广义相对论所预测的那样。
在 7 月发表的最新论文中,奥本海姆与加拿大周界理论物理研究所(Perimeter Institute)的扎卡里·韦勒-戴维斯(Zachary Weller-Davies)发现,广义相对论的关键特征——某些时空对称性,同样可以应用于后量子引力。
然而,这是有代价的。如果奥本海姆的模型要与量子力学相契合,它必须采用量子力学的某些特征。特别是,它必须允许所有物体同时处于两种状态的叠加之中,只有当描述它们的量子波函数在测量时“坍缩”时,才会还原为单一状态。
这些状态包括物体的位置——但困难就在这里。如果一个同时处于两个位置的物体在两个位置都产生引力拉力,这将表明引力在根本上是量子的。然而,如果只有一个位置产生拉力,这将表明引力“知道”物体在波函数坍缩后将处于哪个位置。这将违反不确定性原理,而这是量子力学中一个关键且被广泛
SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY / ALAMY
广义相对论认为引力源于质量使时空变形的方式
接受的准则。
根据奥本海姆的说法,解决这一问题的唯一方法是以时空坐标波动的形式引入一定程度的随机性。这种效应本身很小,但其后果却很显著:这意味着至少在极小尺度上,空间和时间都是不可预测的。例如,时钟的滴答声将不再处于完全相等的间隔,而是会轻微地摆动。可以说,这是时空中的一个“故障”。
尤其是干扰时间的本质,并不是一件可以轻率对待的事情。“当我们描述一个系统时,我们描述的是它如何随时间演化,因此时间的本质是一个重大问题,”奥本海姆说。时间变得随机(即使程度很小),会使得推导我们应该如何描述系统演化变得非常困难——这可能会给物理学本身的运作机制带来麻烦。
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这种随机性没有已知的物理来源,这一事实令一些研究人员感到不安。“我认为他某种程度上避开了核心问题,即解释它为什么是[随机的],”英国南安普顿大学的伊薇特·富恩特斯(Ivette Fuentes)表示。
奥本海姆(Oppenheim)实际上对此表示赞同。“我不喜欢存在这些不可预测的波动这一事实,”他说。“这与‘万物皆有因,且我们应当能够用物理方式描述世界’的观点相冲突。”但他说,如果我们想要调和量子力学和引力,就必须在某些方面做出妥协。“我们尝试了所有较简单的方法,但都没有成功,所以这是我们必须付出的代价。”
或许有理由不能排除这些波动的存在。其中一个理由源于量子力学的一个基础假设,即波恩定则(Born rule)。这是一个在测量量子系统状态时,给出获得特定数值之概率的公式,它是使波函数坍缩的数学机制得以运作的核心。该定则经受了一个世纪的审视,但我们仍然不知道它源自何处。在奥本海姆的模型中,一旦引入时间的波动,波恩定则便自然出现,尽管它并未被列为模型的预设前提。
此外,在今年5月发表的一项研究中,奥本海姆及其同事发现,后量子引力可以模拟一些目前被归因于暗物质的引力效应。观测表明,宇宙中暗物质与普通可见物质的质量比为 5 比 1 —— 但我们完全不知道它是由什么组成的。
由时空波动引起的“幻影”暗物质可能会绕过这个巨大的难题。奥本海姆表示,模型的这一部分仍处于起步阶段:“我们知道存在一种看起来像暗物质的效应,但我们不知道它是否足够大到能解释任何问题,或者是否具有正确的属性。”他目前正致力于更详细地确定这种可能的联系。
他的同行们在很大程度上仍不为所动。法国艾克斯-马赛大学的卡洛·罗韦利(Carlo Rovelli)是圈量子引力论的创始人之一及其主要支持者。他与加州大学伯克利分校的弦理论学家杰夫·佩宁顿(Geoff Penington)在 2023年与奥本海姆打了一个赌。具体的条款是:如果证明引力是量子化的,奥本海姆必须给罗韦利和佩宁顿买一件价值 20 便士的东西;如果证明引力不是量子化的,则由他们两人出资购买一件价值 £1000. 的物品。
罗韦利表示,该模型同时违反了量子力学和广义相对论。“为什么进步应该是倒退回我们已经理解的东西?”他说。“这就像是在提出地球不绕太阳旋转的理论一样。”
奥本海姆则不这么认为。该模型完全符合广义相对论,并且通过为波恩定则提出一个物理起源,为量子力学提供了必要的更新。“这不是在破坏量子力学;实际上,它解决了一个自量子力学诞生以来就一直困扰它的棘手问题,”他说。
第三种观点认为,不破壳就不能出雏(不打破鸡蛋就没法做蛋饼)。“当你将引力量子化,将时空量子化时,你也在破坏广义相对论,”富恩特斯说。“我认为你必须同时破坏相对论和量子力学才能将它们统一。”
现实最终将是决定因素。非量子化引力的模型并不多,如果剔除那些不可验证的模型,选择就更少了。加利福尼亚州劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的丹尼尔·卡尼(Daniel Carney)表示,这使得奥本海姆(Oppenheim)的理论值得关注:他喜欢该理论有办法验证其预测。卡尼说:“在我看来,这个模型主要在作为测试案例方面有用——它在问,如果我们错了会怎样?没错,引力很可能像电磁学一样是量子化的,但除此之外还可能发生什么,这是一个极其难以回答的问题。就此而言,它具有极高的价值。”
目前,观测结果已经对该模型产生了一些约束。例如,如果该模型正确,那么应该存在具有特定频率和强度范围的随机引力波遍布整个宇宙,这些波源自宇宙历史早期的随机时空波动。引力波天文台(例如总部位于美国的激光干涉引力波天文台)测量由黑洞等超大质量物体运动引起时空涟漪,并且已经开始对这种较弱的“随机引力波背景”进行测量。
THE VIRGO COLLABORATION / CCO 1.0
目前的测量结果大大限制了这种背景信号可能具备的特性,同样也限制了后量子引力的可能性。与此同时,利用超冷原子测量引力的实验室实验正在为该模型在更小尺度上提供约束。奥本海姆说:“没有太多的回旋余地,如果它存在问题,也没有太多隐藏的空间。”
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最终,需要的是更直接的实验测试——而理论以及量子传感技术的近期进步意味着这些测试可能即将实现。第一项此类测试是将一个微小质量(例如纳米级晶体)置于同时处于两个位置的量子叠加态中。随后,研究人员将尝试使其与另一个晶体产生纠缠,从而使得测量其中一个的位置能瞬间影响另一个的测量结果。纠缠是一种纯粹的量子效应,因此如果引力不是量子的,它将破坏这两个质量之间的任何纠缠。测量到任何纠缠都将立即排除后量子引力以及所有其他经典引力模型。
第二项测试是将处于叠加态的质量置于引力场中,并连续多次测量其响应。如果引力是量子的,每次测量结果应该大致相同。如果它是
Virgo
引力波
探测器测量
时空的
涟漪



乔纳森·奥本海姆(左)和苏加托·博斯在检查一项实验(下方),该实验可能有助于测试后量子引力
后量子的,那么时空的微小波动应该会在实验的不同运行次数之间产生不一致性。
同一套装置还可以用来测量这种叠加态持续的时间。“如果经典引力来自一个量子对象,那真的会破坏质量同时处于两个位置的叠加态,”同样来自伦敦大学学院(University College London)的实验物理学家苏加托·博斯(Sougato Bose)说道——质量将迅速坍缩到单个位置。卡尼将其比作薛定谔的猫,这是一个经典的思想实验,其中一只猫被困在盒子里,处于既死又活的叠加态,直到盒子被打开且猫被观察到。“在这种情况下,猫不会是既死又活,而是在很短的时间尺度内直接变成活的或死掉,”他说——而在这个例子中,这只“猫”就是奥本海姆的模型。
伦敦大学学院刚刚宣布成立一个新机构,即由博斯和奥本海姆领导的戴维·波特量子信息与时空研究所(David Potter Institute for Quantum Information and Spacetime),致力于测试后量子引力等理论。实际进行这些实验仍然极其繁琐,研究人员可能需要十年或更长时间才能获得答案。“如果我们认为引力毫无疑问是量子的,那么进行这些实验就毫无意义,”博斯说。“但拥有这些替代
“你必须
打破相对论
和量子力学
才能将它们
统一起来”
理论是测试这一点的强大动力。”
当然,“值得测试”并不等同于“很可能是真实的”。在测试实际执行之前,奥本海姆的后量子引力可能仍将处于边缘地位。“真的有人相信世界会像他提议的那样运作吗?我确定有些人相信,但很难找到他们,”卡尼说。
奥本海姆坚持认为,与许多(甚至大多数)尚未获得实验支持的量子引力模型(如弦理论)相比,他的模型所需的假设更少,对现有宇宙模型和量子世界的修正更少,且精心挑选的数值和变量也更少。
富恩特斯认为这是一个合理的观点。“在过去的几十年里,我们只有理论、理论还是理论,是没有任何实际可测试连接的数学,”她说。“是的,[奥本海姆]有一个疯狂的想法,但他提出了一个实验。这正是我们目前应该从事的科学研究。”
莉亚·克雷恩(Leah Crane)是《新科学家》的高级记者,报道的主题涵盖从私人太空飞行、宇宙学到量子力学等领域。
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长期以来,我们一直预期动物会随着气候变化的加剧而迁往更凉爽的栖息地,但艾斯林·欧文(Aisling Irwin)发现,现在看来许多动物实际上在做相反的事情。
气候变化本应给比克内尔鸫(Bicknell's thrush)带来巨大的麻烦。作为北美最稀有的鸣禽之一,该物种已经在与汞中毒和栖息地丧失作斗争。随着这种鸟类所在的山区环境变暖,生态学家担心一个新的威胁将会入侵:美洲红松鼠,这种哺乳动物会在以种子为主的饮食中补充鸣禽的蛋和雏鸟。松鼠分布在鸫鸟栖息地的山下,预计随着温度升高,它们会向山坡上方迁移。
但这种情况并没有发生。马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的生态学家托妮·琳·莫雷利(Toni Lyn Morelli)发现,这些松鼠实际上已经开始向山下迁移。对于鸣禽保护主义者来说,这是一个好消息,但对于更广泛的生态学家来说,这则是一个令人困惑的消息。这些松鼠似乎走错了方向。
它们并非孤例。在某些地区,多达一半的被研究物种违背了将迁往更凉爽地带的预测。这一发现使得保护主义者和土地管理者难以保护脆弱物种。基于物种会远离热源的假设,他们一直在保护或购买那些他们认为将成为气候避难所的凉爽区域。但如果他们保护的土地位置错了怎么办?
“关于在面对气候变化时,保障生物生存的最佳路径是什么,我现在面临的问题比答案更多,”澳大利亚新南威尔士大学的生态学家因娜·奥斯莫洛夫斯基(Inna Osmolovsky)说道。
研究人员现在正回归基础,以了解究竟发生了什么,并制定更适合我们这个变暖世界的保护策略。
在过去的 30 年的大部分时间里,生态学家一直假设由气候变化驱动的分布范围转移在很大程度上是单向的:即向更寒冷的地方迁移。第一个有力的证据出现在 1996 年,当时在加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的卡米尔·帕梅森(Camille Parmesan)证明,北美西部的伊迪丝斑蝶(Edith's checkerspot butterfly)正在离开南部低海拔栖息地日益增加的温暖,转而前往更高海拔和更北方的凉爽气候区。

格雷戈里·萨韦德拉(GREGORI SAAVEDRA)
到 2003, 帕梅森与康涅狄格州卫斯理大学的加里·约赫(Gary Yohe)甚至量化了这种迁移率。利用数百种动植物物种的数据,他们计算出,每十年,物种平均向山上移动约 6 米,或向极地移动 6 公里。
这一速率随后被上调。2011, 凭借更多的数据,英国约克大学的生态学家克里斯·托马斯(Chris Thomas)及其同事计算出,物种平均每十年实际上向山上进一步移动 11 米,或向极地移动 17 公里。科学家还发现,特定物种经历的变暖程度与其迁移幅度之间存在联系——
他们表示,这是因果联系的第一个证据。
这项研究引起了轰动,但正如托马斯当时指出的,数据中隐藏着一个更复杂的故事。尽管从高山花栗鼠到英国蝴蝶,以及从北极的赤狐到北方云杉和松树,这些物种都在向更凉爽的地方迁移,但在分析中追踪的物种中,有四分之一在向山下而非山上移动,且有超过五分之一在向赤道而非极地转移。
随着此后收集的额外数据,莫雷利表示,现在看来“只有不到一半的物种”迁入了更凉爽的环境。一个巨大的问题是:为什么这么多物种显然在走错方向?

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简单来说,答案是:复杂。一个尤其令人费解的观察结果是,生活在同一栖息地且看似相似的动物,对气候变化的反应截然不同。例如,大约 20 年前,加州大学伯克利分校的生态学家史蒂夫·比辛格(Steve Beissinger)及其同事在加利福尼亚州的约塞米蒂国家公园内,在 3000 米的海拔落差间往返攀爬。他们想要探索 28 种小型哺乳动物的分布范围自 20 世纪初被记录以来发生了怎样的偏移——当时,一位目光远大的生物学家约瑟夫·格里内尔(Joseph Grinnell)记录的该国家公园气温比现在低约 3℃。
“一半的物种表现出向山坡上方移动的趋势,但另一半则完全没有移动,”比辛格说。“有两种鼩鼱的分布范围反而向山坡下方扩张了。”
随后,比辛格转向研究美国西部的内华达山脉中的鸟类。“接下来的情况变得更加令人困惑,”他说。他及其同事发现,同一鸟种的不同种群对气候变化的反应各异。例如,白头啄木鸟在内华达山脉北部在向山上移动,在中部向山下移动,而在山脉南部则没有移动。
“我们为此苦思冥想了很长时间,”比辛格说。他们最终得出结论,仅凭温度变化作为动物行为的预测指标过于粗糙。
他们现在意识到,降雪和降雨的变化同样重要。例如,虽然向山下移动可能意味着进入一个温暖得令人不适的区域,但向山上移动可能意味着进入一个潮湿得令人不适的区域。如果降水带来的代价被认为过高,那么向山下移动可能会成为一个“最不坏”的选择。
STONE NATURE PHOTOGRAPHY / ALAMY
莫雷利(Morelli)承认,在预测物种如何移动时需要考虑降水量,这似乎显而易见。托马斯(Thomas)表示,生态学家意识到“多种复杂的因素”会影响物种选择居住地的位置,但他们一直试图保持预测模型的简单——而将雨雪因素纳入其中会使模型变得复杂得多。莫雷利说,降水量的变化“毫无规律”,“它不像温度那样具有明确的方向性”。
正如比辛格在接下来的研究中所发现的,这并不是唯一能使预测复杂化的因素。美国西南部的莫哈韦沙漠是大量小型哺乳动物(如田鼠、花栗鼠、鹿鼠、跳鼠等)以及 200 种鸟类的家园。在过去的一个世纪里,这里升温了 $2^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$,气温有时可突破 $45^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ (113°F)。比辛格发现,正如预期的那样,那里的鸟类种群正在“崩溃”。但哺乳动物却安然无恙。
MINDEN PICTURES / ALAMY
他及其同事发现,原因在于哺乳动物在白天的酷热中躲在洞穴里,而鸟类则在头顶被“空气炸锅”般的高温烘烤。“我们从中吸取的教训是,即使在同一个地点,不同物种对同一程度的气候变化的反应也可能不同,”他说。这完全取决于它们实际接触环境的情况。如果想要准确预测分布范围如何偏移,模型必须变得复杂得多。
因此,生物学家们开始尝试用所有能想到的方法来解决这个问题。他们构建了庞大的特征数据库,收集了关于生物行为的各种细节,从移动能力到饮食偏好。他们研究了全球范围内的分布偏移。加州大学戴维斯分校的生态学家蒙特·尼特-克莱格(Monte Neate-Clegg)表示,最终的目标是希望在数据中找到某种公式的线索,从而能够成功预测任何特定物种或群落将向何处移动,进而指示人类在何处进行干预最为理想。
Beissinger 表示,这种方法看起来很有前景。特别是,人们预期那些生命周期短且死亡早的生物,在向高海拔和极地迁移方面会是最成功的。这类物种产生大量后代且
白头啄木鸟(上图)对气候变化的反应因其栖息地而异;奥德袋鼠鼠(左图)可以在洞穴中避暑;伊迪丝斑蝶(下左图)是物种向更凉爽栖息地迁移的早期指标;美洲红松鼠(下图)正为了寻找食物而向山下迁移。
RICK & NORA BOWERS / ALAMY
BLICKWINKEL / ALAMY
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他说,某些物种倾向于耐受广泛的条件,例如温度和湿度。它们“更擅长在分布范围的边缘地带进行扩张”。
为了验证这一预期,贝辛格(Beissinger)及其北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的同事埃里克·里德尔(Eric Riddell)分析了所有试图利用行为特征来解释分布范围转移的研究。但他们得出结论,利用此类数据无法做出可靠的预测。
“它们的效果其实并不太好,”总部位于加利福尼亚州的非营利组织保护科学伙伴(Conservation Science Partners)的生态学家莉丝·孔特(Lise Comte)表示,“因此,整个学术界感到有些失望。”
换句话说,研究人员距离找到那个“圣杯”般的公式依然遥远。事实上,影响单个物种行为的复杂因素如此之多,以至于可能没有简单的方法能预测该物种将如何应对气候变化——尽管在所有物种中,你可以检测到向高海拔和向极地迁移的信号。
研究澳大利亚高山植物迁移的奥斯莫洛夫斯基(Osmolovsky)认为,应该更多地关注气候变化如何改变物种之间的相互作用:“我们目前在思考的是,某一种植物在应对气候变化时是如何独立行动的,”她说,“但实际上,整个群落都在做出反应,而且物种间的相互作用可能也受到了影响。”
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例如,去年的研究表明,通常对植物有害的微生物在压力更大的环境中可能会变成互利共生关系。Osmolovsky 表示,这类“不可预测的友谊”可以让物种在气候变暖的情况下生活得更容易。
Beissinger 列举了科学家在尝试预测物种如何应对气候变化时现在需要考虑的清单。“竞争、疾病、捕食以及土地利用变化等人类影响,”他说。此外,他补充道,物种可能会通过改变行为——例如在一年中更早地繁殖——来减少甚至消除迁移的需求。
尽管意识到这种复杂性使得预测物种如何应对气候变化变得困难,但 Neate-Clegg 表示,仍有两件实际的事情可以帮助环保主义者。
第一是将栖息地连接起来,这样生物就可以根据它们应对气候变化的最佳方式,向高处、低处、北方、南方,甚至东方或西方移动。“你能做的最糟糕的事情就是使物种试图迁移的这些景观碎片化,”他说。
另一项则是增强栖息地的复杂性,以便物种在气候变化时有调整行为的选择。Neate-Clegg 说,这意味着“不仅要有一片森林,还要有一片复杂的森林,这样可能提供更多缓冲的选择”。例如,拥有许多不同种类和树龄的树木,意味着有各种各样的遮荫选择。
除此之外,意识到没有一个通用模型能预测每个物种对气候变化的反应,也提醒生态学家,成功的保护工作通常需要对其在当地栖息地中的物种进行详细研究。
“保护工作一直是一种多管齐下的方法,既包括通过保护区进行生态系统保护,也包括物种层面的保护。我认为这两条途径都可以奏效,”Neate-Clegg 说。
采取这种方法甚至可以帮助解释为什么美国红松鼠没有迁入 Bicknell 鸫(Bicknell's thrush)占据的领地。事实证明,在更低的山坡上出现了一个极佳的新栖息地。几十年来,伐木和酸雨摧毁了曾经生长在那里的云杉树,而云杉树产生松果,这是松鼠的主要食物来源。如今,这两种压力都大大减轻,云杉树再次在较低的海拔生长。
Morelli 说,最终,“它们只是在数英尺深的积雪中努力生存的小哺乳动物”。气候变化似乎在激励松鼠向山上走,但对它们来说最好的答案是向相反方向移动,追随松果而去。
Aisling Irwin 是一位专注于环境领域的获奖记者
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心理治疗和药物是改善心理健康的常规选择,但心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)告诉 Olivia Goldhill,我们的饮食同样扮演着至关重要的角色。
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饮食是健康生活的关键,但奇怪的是,在关于心理健康的讨论中,这个话题很少被提及。相反,我们倾向于关注药物和治疗,而在很大程度上忽略了我们所摄入的食物——心理学家金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)认为,这是一个巨大的错误。
在伦敦曾是欧洲最大的女子监狱——霍洛威监狱(HM Prison Holloway)工作后,她敏锐地意识到饮食对心理健康的强大影响。她观察到,在缺乏均衡饮食和营养的情况下,囚犯们更难控制自己的情绪。她意识到,适当的营养对于管理心理健康与药物和治疗同样重要。
她接受了《新科学家》的采访,探讨了为什么营养是大脑健康的基石,以及我们摄入的食物如何治疗精神疾病。
奥利维亚·戈德希尔(Olivia Goldhill):营养是如何影响大脑健康的?我认为大多数人都明白食物对身体很重要,但对其对心智的影响则不太熟悉。
金伯利·威尔逊: 心理健康是一个物理器官的涌现属性。就像心跳是心脏的涌现属性一样,所有我们认为属于心理健康的特质都是大脑的涌现属性。如果我们想要获得连贯的心理体验,就应该将大脑的物理健康和结构完整性作为起点——营养会改变大脑处理思想和情感的能力,就像它影响任何其他器官的健康一样。
您认为为什么我们如此罕见地考虑这种身心联系?
金伯利·威尔逊: 我认为这是笛卡尔主义的影响。四百年前,勒内·笛卡尔(René Descartes)提出,自我的本质是独立于物理身体且高于物理身体的。这给医学以及随后的精神病学留下了深刻印象,以至于我们开始将心理健康视为一种“颈部以上”的干预——身体的其他部分完全无关。
此外,大脑是不可见的。举重能很快改变你的身体,通常在几周内就能看到。但因为你无法在物理上看到饮食、运动和睡眠给大脑带来的变化,你必须等待一种主观上的转变,而这可能需要六个月的时间。
还存在一点自我中心主义。我们认为自己是极其复杂的个体。我们不喜欢“不适感可以通过改变饮食和充足的睡眠来改善”这个想法。我们追求的是复杂的药理化合物,或者是深层挖掘式的治疗,以触及我们核心的复杂性。
显然,我也提供部分此类服务。但我们也知道,通过营养和生活方式的干预可以产生深远的变化。我在一些监狱中看到了这一点,随机对照试验表明,营养的改变减少了暴力行为。这是最直接、最清晰的证据,证明大脑是一个物理器官,如果你想让它良好运作,就需要给它提供适当的营养。
您在 2013 年之前在霍洛威监狱和青少年犯管教所工作——那里现在已经关闭,但当时是欧洲最大的女子监狱。我想在那里的经历塑造了您对待心理健康的方式。
金伯利·威尔逊: 在监狱里,你面对的是一群深受创伤且处于创伤环境中的人群。关注点通常在涌现的行为上——这个人很愤怒,他们具有攻击性,他们很危险,他们令人恐惧——而大多数人并没有思考产生这些行为的机制。
但我们面对的是一群在所有层面都经历过极端匮乏的人:情感忽视,通常伴有虐待,以及严重的营养缺失,且往往伴有与物质滥用相关的大脑损伤。
我们的司法系统建立在意志力(volition)的基础上:你知道是非对错,如果你选择做错事,那么你就应当承担后果。但这基于一个假设,即决策机制在正常运作。
这就是我们在讨论监狱暴力时几乎进入哲学领域的地方。如果我开一辆车并发生了车祸,而我并不知道刹车已经失效,那么我对这次事故是否负全部责任?还是说存在需要被考虑在内的减轻情节?
在脑健康与监狱暴力方面,我们发现当营养状况改善时,暴力行为会下降 30%。这些是针对广谱微量营养素(即维生素、矿物质,以及在某些情况下的 omega-3)的补充剂试验。
没有人希望让人们就这样逍遥法外,但我认为我们需要审慎对待我们对行为所做的假设,不仅是在监狱中,而且是在所有领域。
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有大量证据表明,全身或大脑的身体健康状况会影响心理健康。我们拥有可靠的数据显示,每天摄入 1 克 omega-3 – 其中 60% 为 EPA [omega-3 中发现的一种脂肪酸] – 可以减轻抑郁症。人们认为,炎症是导致某些人出现抑郁症状的驱动因素。Omega-3 是炎症“关闭开关”的必要前体。
此外,还有关于大脑发育轨迹与精神病理学的数据。大脑扫描向我们展示,如果负责高级思维的前额叶和顶叶比预期更小,则与精神病理学风险增加相关。我们讨论的是将大脑的物理结构作为一种风险因素。
根据世界卫生组织(WHO)的数据,围产期和婴儿早期的碘缺乏是全球范围内可预防的大脑损伤的主要原因,并且与低智商相关。

RAUL ARBOLEDA / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
营养对囚犯的情绪、情感和行为有直接影响
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在今年的新科学家现场活动(New Scientist Live)中,听取金伯利·威尔逊(Kimberley Wilson)的更多分享。10 月 10 日,她将探讨如何构建终身的大脑健康,深入研究支持神经发育、认知表现和情感韧性的关键营养素。
欲了解更多信息,请访问 newscientist.com / nslmag
关于预防抑郁症最可靠的一些数据集中在运动方面。但我们很少考虑到这一点,因为 [大多数人] 认为心理健康需要通过心理治疗或药物来解决。
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是的,我认为旧派精神医学那种使用药物来改变大脑化学物质的方法,仅仅是整个讨论中极小的一部分。这些化合物——血清素或多巴胺——对于调节情绪至关重要,但它们也是由营养物质合成的。
如果你患有贫血,你的血清素产量就不会很高,因为大脑在这个过程中需要铁,而我们看到了铁缺乏与抑郁症等情绪障碍之间的关联。治疗情绪障碍最简单的方法之一就是检查:你是否贫血?如果是,我们可以通过饮食或补充铁剂来纠正这一点。这样一来,你的疲劳感和情感淡漠情况就会得到改善,而且你不需要进行长达六个月的心理治疗。
您认为关于营养与心理健康的资料应该如何影响诊断和治疗?我们需要的是一个更好的评估过程。与其进行“你是否抑郁”这种二元判断,我们想要询问的是:是什么导致了你的抑郁?是童年创伤吗?如果是,那么让我们为你快速安排深入的心理治疗。是关系压力吗?是职场要求吗?还是因为你在过去四天里只吃了两个巧克力玛芬蛋糕?那不会让你感觉良好。如果我们先从这里介入,那么我们可以很快地改变你的感受。
那么,如果一个人仅靠超加工食品生活,例如,大脑会发生什么?大脑是人体中最“饥饿”的器官。我们需要为其提供所需的营养,这样我们才能感觉良好、集中注意力、产生目标导向行为——所有这些。
单个甜甜圈不会对你的大脑产生实质性的伤害。但你的饮食中这类食物占比越多,你的营养状态就越低。你体内像[维生素] B3 和 B12、omega-3, 3、硒和锌这类物质的含量会降低。这是一个问题,因为你的大脑随后会缺乏维持良好运作所需的东西。
我们讨论了饮食对大脑的营养影响,但我也很好奇进食在社会学上的重要性。与他人分享餐食是否有健康益处?我认为有。我认为共同烹饪和进食是使我们成为人类的一部分。在人类进化过程中,共同进食是一种必然,因为你不能独自出去狩猎和采集。这是一个群体过程:我分享我拥有的,你分享你拥有的。
有很棒的数据表明,当我们共同进食时,我们会觉得更信任他人,而且这不仅仅是因为你与已经信任的人一起进食。进食本身具有某种建立这些关系的作用,我认为这与进食的生理机制有关。你有“战斗或逃跑”反应,然后你有“休息与消化”反应。你需要保持冷静,需要感到安全 [且] 需要觉得你与值得信赖的人在一起,这样你才能放下戒备并消化食物。
你刚刚生了孩子。怀孕和产后时期在多大程度上影响了你对营养重要性的理解(如果有所影响的话)?我采取的立场是,我正在从零开始构建一个全新的大脑。因此,对我来说,思考我为那个大脑提供了什么以使其获得最佳发育是非常重要的。
我将产前补充剂与关于哪些营养素对大脑发育至关重要的研究进行了对比,发现它们严重不足。基本上,没有产前

ALEXANDRKOLESNIKOV / GETTY IMAGES
饮食中富含维生素和 omega-3s 可以改善大脑健康

PAUL FAITH / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
维生素中含有足够的营养素胆碱,仅仅是因为胆碱盐体积较大。尽管我们知道胆碱在降低神经系统先天性疾病风险方面可以起到与叶酸相同的作用,并且我们看到怀孕期间补充胆碱能提高儿童在 7 岁时的注意力。我正在哺乳,而这些营养素会存在于你的母乳中。因此,我服用胆碱补充剂,以确保我的儿子能获得足够的量。
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我可能会说是增加 omega-3 的摄入量——理想情况下,每周至少食用一份油性鱼类,而纯素食者或素食者可能需要服用补充剂。这是目前一些最强有力的数据所在,显示其能降低抑郁和自杀意念的风险,我们认为这是由于神经炎症减轻而起的作用。鉴于英国几乎没有人能摄入足够的鱼类,我们可以假设,只要做出这一个改变,很多人就会受益。
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当我刚开始讨论这项研究时,我曾与一位同事交谈,他直接嘲笑了我。这相当令人失望,他只是说,好吧,我从未听说过这件事。
很难说情况是否在好转,因为我不知道自己现在是否处于某种信息茧房之中。我希望旧有的方法能被那些更开放、基于最新研究且乐观的人所取代,他们会说,事实上,大脑是一个物理器官,我们确实可以通过某些手段来改善心理健康。
奥利维亚·戈德希尔(Olivia Goldhill)是《新科学家》的特写编辑,专注于生物医学、健康和神经科学。
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涂鸦区
下周:
隐喻填字游戏
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1 大肠的手术开口 (9)
6 多面体的一种 (5)
9 例如飞机的中央走道 (5)
10 一种化学分析方法 (9)
11 体积单位 (10)
12 \_\_\_\_综合征,主要影响女孩的遗传疾病 (4)
14 测量电流的仪器 (7)
15 Y (7)
17 骨骼术语,意为“乳房形状的” (7)
19 关于器官位置异常的 (7)
20 交点 (4)
22 产卵器官 (10)
25 例如弗莱明 (9)
26 可能是牛顿 (5)
27 硬化合成树脂 (5)
28 a 轴或 h 轴上的次要棋子 (5,4)
纵向
1 深渊 (5)
2 美国历史上的核开发基地 (3,6)
3 生物新变种进化的手段 (10)
4 异常或非典型的数据点 (7)
5 首次发现横向 15 的瑞典村庄 (7)
6 策略;蓝图 (4)
7 例如二乙酰胺或酞亚胺 (5)
8 仅由稳定的单一基本粒子组成 (9)
13 数值数据 (10)
14 结合或用 NH₃ 处理 (9)
16 输入系统的信息 (5,4)
18 分离或保持独立的方法 (7)
19 坚韧的纤维草 (7)
21 由于 (3,2)
23 神经药剂 (5)
24 汉弗里 \_\_\_\_,英国化学家和发明家 (4)
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1 LSD 可能很快被批准用于治疗焦虑。美国在哪个年份将其列为管制药物,从而停止了其在精神病学早期的应用?
2 四种基本力中哪一种最弱?
3 据估计,全球每年有多少动物被用于生物医学研究?
4 南美洲的虎猫也被称作什么名字?
5 雅典帕特农神庙的山墙端有多少根柱子?
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目标是将网格划分为互不重叠的矩形。每个矩形必须恰好包含一个数字,且其面积必须等于该数字。例如,数字 6 应该拥有一个覆盖六个方格的矩形。
16 | < / > < / > 3< / > < / > | < / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / > 6< / > 3< / >< / > < / > < / > 2< / >< / > < / > < / > 2< / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / > 2< / > < / > 2< / >< / > < / > 16< / > < / > 5< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / > 2< / >< / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 2< / > 4< / > < / >< / > 4< / > < / > 4< / > 2< / > |
本周谜题的答案见第 47 页
我们的游戏现在可以在线玩:newscientist.com / games
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为什么进化没有在回归海洋的陆生哺乳动物身上重新引入鳃?
Graham Smith
澳大利亚,墨尔本
进化不能在单一步骤中做出根本性的改变,无论这对“设计者”来说听起来多么合理(例如给海洋哺乳动物增加鳃)。进化是通过微小的步骤推进的,每一步都必须增加个体的生存机会。如果肺和鳃同时具备具有显著优势,那么在向肺过渡的过程中,鳃更有可能被保留下来。
SIEGFRIED KUT TIG / IMAGEBROKER.COM / ALAMY
本周的新问题
在向呼吸空气的动物过渡期间,进化没有维持鳃的功能,这可能是因为从空气到血液的氧气传输效率远高于从水到血液的传输效率。更高的氧气摄入率使呼吸空气的动物能够拥有更高的代谢率,而这些额外的氧气则支持了快速的动物(海豹)、更复杂的大脑(海豚)
“进化采用了一种简单得多的策略:它想出了让动物在水下停留更长时间的方法”
猫与狗:人类同时驯化了猫和狗。为什么狗通常会听从指令,而猫在很大程度上则视而不见?Robert Morley,英国伦敦
鳃不太可能支持任何温血动物,因为氧气的传输率部分取决于周围流体中氧气的浓度,水中约为 7 ppm(百万分之七),而空气中则为 210,000 ppm(百万分之二十一万)。
以及更大的体型(鲸鱼)。
观测大爆炸:我们是否能建造一台能看到大爆炸那么远的太空望远镜?Mark Smith,英国兰开夏郡,莱瑟姆圣安妮斯
进化是在现有基础上构建,且倾向于采取简单、低成本的方式。
鳔允许鱼类毫不费力地漂浮在不同的深度。硬骨鱼的鳔是由使用气囊的祖先演变而来的。在缺氧的环境中,鱼类将空气吞入这些气囊中。像鳗鱼之类的一些鱼类仍然拥有气囊。鲨鱼在气囊出现之前就已出现,因此它们没有鳔。
在鱼类开始吞咽空气后,它们的食道逐渐扩大,直到变成气囊。随后,气囊又被改造成为鳔。这一序列展示了进化在构建新器官时所采用的渐进过程。陆地动物的肺也是由同样的气囊演变而来的。这(相对)很容易:只需修改气囊,使其能将氧气吸收进血液即可。
然而,将肺重新转化为可以让水流通过的鳃将非常困难,且中间步骤很可能会导致进化死胡同。同样的论点也排除了创造全新鳃的可能性,除非某些现有器官可以转化为鳃。相反,进化采用了一种简单得多的策略:它想出了让动物在水下停留更长时间的方法,甚至让其中一些动物能在水下睡眠而不会淹死。
请注意,其他回归水中的陆地动物,如鱼龙,也没有发育出鳃:它们全部保留了肺。
这意味着,无论是从肺演变而来还是凭空(ex nihilo)创造鳃,确实都非常困难。
为什么狗通常会听从指令,而猫在很大程度上则视而不见?
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最快地倒空一壶满水的方法是什么:完全倒扣,还是以某个特定角度倾倒?(续)
Mike Follows
英国西米德兰兹郡,萨顿科尔德菲尔德
倾斜角度太小,水流速度慢;倾斜角度太大,水流则变成一阵阵的“咕噜”声。在这两者之间应该存在一个最佳角度。但随着水壶变空、水位下降,这个最佳角度也会随之改变,因此最快的倾倒方式应该是不断调整角度。
原因是壶口需要承担两项任务:水必须流出,同时空气必须进入以填补空间。当水壶完全倒扣时,水可能会堵住开口,直到内部压力下降到足以让空气以气泡形式强行进入。随后另一波水流出,循环往复。
在合适的角度下,水可以从开口的下半部分流出,而空气则能从上半部分持续进入。水流不需要完全平滑——关键在于空气和水能够同时通过开口,而不是轮流通过。
一些容器通过第二个开口或通风孔来解决这个问题。这样空气可以通过一条路径进入,而水通过另一条路径流出,从而使主开口完全用于排水。鸟类也利用类似的原理:气囊有助于维持肺部基本单向的空气流动,从而满足飞行时的高氧需求。
Herman D'Hondt
澳大利亚悉尼
这全是因为关于进化一个简单的事实:它
想要向我们发送问题或答案?请发送电子邮件至 lastword@newscientist.com。问题应关于日常科学现象。完整条款与条件请参阅 newscientist.com / lw-terms
因此,对于没有通风孔的水壶,诀窍在于保持水流出,同时不切断空气的流入。
当我们加入这位伟大的理论科学家时,他正陷入沉思。如此静止、安静且专注,以至于他几乎像是在睡觉。
---
有视觉幻觉和听觉幻觉。那么是否存在嗅觉幻觉这种东西?(续)
Nicqui Yazdi
通过电子邮件
回答你的问题——是的,我有这种情况!这是我多年来一直存在的一种奇怪故障。我对气味的记忆力极强,某些图像、声音,甚至仅仅是听到有人谈论某事,或者在电视上或书里看到一张图片,都能触发对我来说极其真实的嗅觉体验。
我真的曾在半夜因为电视上的一个新闻片段而在屋里到处寻找火源,或者在听到一个关于鸡粪的广告后闻到了粪便的味道!
这种情况经常发生在我身上,大概每周几次。它涉及各种各样的事情,从电视面包店广告中的面包味,到书本或海报上的任何随机事物。这种气味仅持续很短时间。
---
通常只有几秒钟,但感觉如此真实。
大多数时候它们是令人愉悦的气味,这经常让我发笑,尤其是当我意识到,这当然只是我惊人的嗅觉回忆能力时!
我想知道这种幻觉叫什么,因为我一直没能找到相关信息。我曾就此联系过奥利弗·萨克斯基金会(Oliver Sacks Foundation),萨克斯工作超过 30 年的私人助理在信函中将其称为我自己的“嗅觉超能力”。我完全不介意,但我很想知道这是否有正式名称。
布鲁斯·丹尼斯(Bruce Denness)
英国怀特岛,奈顿(Niton, Isle of Wight, UK)
菲利普·马丁(Philip Martin)的随机嗅觉幻象伴随着
啊,看来他
确实睡着了。
这没关系。
科学很难,
并非每一天
都能获得成功。
我们以后
再回来。
他对过去相关地点的回忆(9月19日),而我的幻象总是相同的气味以及伴随的声音,并且发生在同一个地方:一座此前荒废的庄园,我在修复过程中对其进行了大幅改造。这座房子有三层主楼,但四楼有一个单间的小装饰亭(folly),我将其用作办公室。
嗅觉幻象在搬入后几周内开始出现在办公室里,且总是相同:突然间,Erinmore Mixture 烟斗烟草的甜味会顺着楼梯飘进办公室,同时下方会传来沉重的脚步声。脚步声从未超过三楼——如果脚步声的主人熟悉之前的布局,他可能会因为我重新安置了四楼的楼梯而感到困惑。
有趣的是,马丁提到大脑会产生幻嗅。然而,我的经历经常被他人见证,从而将这种幻象扩展到了我自己的大脑之外。
23 Ricin, 24 Daly
19 Esparto, 21 Due to,
16 Input data, 18 Divider,
13 Statistics, 14 Ammoniate,
6 Plan, 7 Imide, 8 Monatomic,
3 Specification, 4 Outline, 5 Ytterby,
向下 1 Chasm, 2 Los Alamos,
横向 1 Colostomy, 6 Pirism,
9 Aisle, 10 Titration, 11 Millilitre,
12 Ret, 14 Ammeter,
15 Titrium, 17 Mastoid,
19 Ectopic, 20 Node,
22 Oviprotor, 25 Alexander,
26 Iesaq, 27 Epoxy,
28 Rooks'pawn
---
5 Eight
4. Oncilla
3 1.9 亿
2 Gravity
11970 快速测验 #372
16 | < / > < / > 3< / > < / > | < / > < / > 2< / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 5< / > < / >< / > < / > < / >< / > < / > 16< / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / > 2< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 2< / > < / >< / > < / > < / >< / > < / > < / >< / > < / > < / >< / > < / ><
| < / > < / > | < / > < / > 4< / > < / > 4< / >< / > 4< / > < / > 4< / >< / > < / > < / > 2< / > 4< / > < / >< / > < / > < / >
< / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / >< / > < / > < / >< / > < / > < / > 3< / > < / > 2< / >< / > < / > < / > |
解答
块状宇宙(Block Universe)
---
在 YouTube 和其他视频网站上,存在着一种繁荣的内容类型,最贴切的描述是“盯着房产清单发呆”。这些房子可能是绝大多数人只能在梦中才敢想象的精美宽敞的豪宅,也可能是室内装饰上极其糟糕的巴洛克式审美大爆发,简直可以与最近白宫发生的那些事相媲美。
到目前为止,“反馈”(Feedback)专栏并不倾向于给这种内容堆积添砖加瓦,但记者马修·斯帕克斯(Matthew Sparkes)用 RightMove 上的一个房源把我们诱惑进来了。这是一栋位于英国法恩伯勒(Farnborough)的建筑,售价为 75 万英镑。价格下方有一个链接写着“你买得起吗?”“反馈”没有点击,因为我们不需要一个网站来告诉我们答案。
这座建筑是一个直立的白色圆柱体,一侧有一些粗笨的附属部分。建筑面积约为 1000 平方米。“反馈”很难精确计算房间数量,因为底层部分是开放式布局,但底层至少有 10 个房间,上面一层可能有 20 个左右,不过顶层只有可怜的 5 个。
马特讽刺地将其描述为“完美的家庭住宅”,而“反馈”赞同他的讽刺。只有那些成员之间互不相爱的家庭才会使用这样的建筑。
好奇这为什么会出现在“反馈”专栏中的读者们,现在不用好奇了。这座建筑是前法恩伯勒离心机(Farnborough Centrifuge),从 1955年起,它被用于训练飞行员应对高速飞行以及后来太空旅行所需的剧烈 g 力。主圆柱形建筑内安置着离心机,而驱动电机和轴承则在地下室。英国首位宇航员海伦·夏曼(Helen Sharman)就曾使用过这台离心机。难怪房产经纪人将其描述为“购买一段英国航空历史的独特机会”。
法恩伯勒离心机于 2019年停止运行,当时一座更新、更现代的离心机建成。它随后移交给
Twisteddoodles 为《新科学家》创作
科学家在寻找自己的猫时一边发出“pspsps”的声音,一边发现了新的猫物种 @twisteddoodles


有故事想告诉“反馈”专栏?
请发送至 feedback@newscientist.com
或寄至 New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY
邮寄物品的处理时间将会延迟
一个名为法恩伯勒航空科学信托基金(Farnborough Air Sciences Trust, FAST)的慈善机构。然而,在 2024年 8 月,FAST 宣布由于建筑所有者要求“租金增加五倍”,他们被迫关闭了离心机。
两年后,它被挂牌出售。有人刚好有余下的 75 万英镑 并且想开个博物馆吗?“反馈”保证不会将其标榜为过于小众,因为这听起来确实像个我们会去的地方。
---
英国公务员系统的独创性真是无边无际。它不仅能将许多职能外包给私营公司,还能将量子现象转化为宏观世界。
否则怎么解释读者罗伯特·米尔恩(Robert Milne)在特威克纳姆(Twickenham)就业中心外看到的那个标志?上面写着“自动体外除颤器位于内部”。据推测,该除颤器处于一种既在建筑内部又在建筑外部的叠加态。罗伯特想知道他的工作现在是否也是如此:“我现在是否被允许在领取救济金的同时,还拥有全职有薪工作?”
“反馈”进一步想询问,在就业中心关闭且除颤器被锁起来的一天中许多小时里,这个除颤器对心血管功能受损的公众成员能起到多少作用。
我们还想知道,这个除颤器在什么意义上是“自动”的。它是否拥有内部 AI 和机械臂,以便能从容器中伸出来电击那些毫无防备的求职者?
---
说到失控的 AI,读者们可能会想起 Anthropic 的雅各布·考克森(Jacob Coxon)的行为,他在 9 月写道:“我今天从 Anthropic 辞职了。在过去的三年里,我在 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 都从事预训练研究。这两家公司都没有采取负责任的行为。他们正径直冲向自我改进的超级智能,在拿我们的生命做赌注。更多想法见下文。”
“反馈”(Feedback)专栏曾对此有所提及,但由于编辑认为没有足够的人能听懂这个梗,因此在之前的专栏中被删除了。“反馈”现在不情愿地接受了强有力的证据(包括书籍销量以及与普通人的交流),即虽然很多人读过 J.R.R. 托尔金的奇幻小说《霍比特人》和《指环王》,但读过他的神话史诗《精灵宝钻》的人要少得多。
我们承认,《精灵宝钻》确实相当复杂。然而,其核心内容足够简单:有一个名叫梅尔寇(Melkor)的黑暗之主。梅尔寇有一个名叫索伦(Sauron)的仆人,他们聚集在一个名为安格班德(Angband)的堡垒中做恶事。这包括创造 Urulóki,也就是更广为人知的巨龙。
许多“科技兄弟”(tech bros)似乎读过这段内容,尽管“反馈”不确定他们是否完全理解了。众所周知,监控公司 Palantir 的命名源自《指环王》中的魔法真视之石(Palantir),这是一个大胆的选择,因为只有两个(有台词的)角色大量使用了真视之石:一个变邪恶了,另一个把自己点燃了。
不过,至少一些托尔金的读者似乎理解了他的作品。一位仅以“bree”为名的粉丝在 Threads 上写道,在“反馈”看来,这段话切中了问题的核心:“我今天从安格班德辞职了。在过去的三个世纪里,我为索伦和梅尔寇都从事形而上学研究。这两位黑暗之主都没有采取负责任的行为。他们正径直冲向有翼的 Urulóki,在拿我们的生命做赌注。更多想法见下文。”
---



一次有趣的旅程,探讨引导地外文明搜寻的看似简单的公式
来自量子物理学家、《纽约时报》畅销书作者兼 BBC💡 主持人吉姆·阿尔-哈利利(Jim Al-Khalili),关于时间的意义和基本性质的至关重要见解
达尔文(DARWIN)
查尔斯·达尔文的权威传记——现收录于一本删节且全面更新的卷册中

对死亡的多种形式、起源和意义的科学探索

对妊娠流产的一次充满同情心且基于证据的审视——它如何发生、为何发生,以及医疗行业的保证为何不能反映现实

早期人类独特的睡眠习惯如何促进了生存、创新和社会进化——以及这一进化遗产如何为我们今天的睡眠提供启示

---
我们的研究促成了 HPV(人乳头瘤病毒)疫苗的诞生,该疫苗可预防导致几乎所有宫颈癌病例的病毒。每年为数百万人提供至关重要的保护,这得益于遗嘱捐赠的支持。
遗嘱捐赠资助了我们战胜癌症工作的超过三分之一。
了解更多:

英国癌症研究中心(CANCER RESEARCH UK)
我们共同战胜癌症
WEEKLY 3 October 2026
HOW TO THINK CLEARLY ABOUT THE RISK OF AN AI APOCALYPSE
THE CONTROVERSIAL
RISE OF WEIGHT-LOSS
DRUGS FOR CHILDREN
BRAZIL'S DO-OR-DIE MOMENT FOR THE AMAZON
How strange quirks in space-time could give us a unified theory of reality

PLUS



New Scientist Live is 10 this year, and New Scientist turns 70, so it promises to be a real celebration! On Saturday I'll be hosting the Mind and Body Stage, so will have a front row seat on all my favourite subjects, including brain health with Kimberley Wilson, and healthy eating with Tim Spector.
On Sunday I would love to hear Amy Pearson's talk on neurodiversity and I will be roaming the show floor with my kids for fun demonstrations. Inevitably, there are so many talks I will miss – but you can guarantee I'll be catching up on the live-stream videos the moment I get home!
This year at New Scientist Live, as well as being part of the New Scientist panel attempting to predict what science will achieve by the end of the century, I'm also looking forward to chairing a discussion about the future of space exploration with two astronauts: Helen Sharman and Meganne Christian. We'll be discussing what it takes to become a modern space traveller, and humanity's plans for the moon, Mars and beyond.
Lastly, I just know palaeontologist Steve Brusatte's talk about dinosaurs and their descendants on the Family Stage will be great fun!
There is so much to look forward to at the show this year. With so much discussion around AI at the moment, Megan Peters talking about how to tell if machines gain consciousness will be unmissable. I'm also excited to hear about the frontiers of other technologies like quantum computers in Ilana Wisby's talk and Greg Brittles on fusion.
Penny Sarchet
Managing editor
Looking even further into the future will be the New Scientist team with a talk predicting the biggest scientific breakthroughs of the next 70 years, which will be very fun. My main task for the show is hosting a panel where we'll be looking at the biggest unsolved problems in mathematics – I'm very much looking forward to that too.
Catherine de Lange
Editor
Timothy Revell
Executive editor

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I think one of the most fascinating questions in biology is what's so special about our species? Why did we survive when the other human species went extinct, and how did evolution give us the intelligence and the creativity to develop sophisticated technology and conquer the world? Alice Roberts is a brilliant speaker, and I can't wait to see her tackle these big questions.
I'm also looking forward to seeing my colleague Rowan Hooper chat to Guy Shrubsole and Lucy Jones, two fantastic nature writers, about how ecological thinking can tackle the climate crisis – I hope it will be a really inspiring discussion!

I'm most looking forward to hearing from my colleague Olivia Goldhill about how vivid my imagination is. I think of myself as having very strong mental imagery, but what am I really comparing that against? I'm fascinated to hear how it varies from person to person and how it affects things like my curiosity and my mental health, but also how it might be harming me.
I'm also excited to see geneticist Turi King, who was famously involved in uncovering the remains of King Richard III in a Leicester car park. She'll be talking about the importance of modern genetics for understanding medical conditions, solving crimes and supporting conservation.
ONE
WEEK
TO GO

I'm excited to hear Emma Chapman talk about cosmic archaeology, which is all about how we can use radio waves to look back through billions and billions of years of the universe's history. By doing that, we can find out about things like how black holes behave and what dark matter and dark energy might actually be.
Perhaps the biggest science story of 2026 has been how artificial intelligence is transforming mathematics – for good or for ill. So I can’t wait to hear what mathematicians Nira Chamberlain, Sarah Hart and Tony Padilla think the future holds. They’ll be debating the biggest unsolved problems in maths in 2026 – and I bet AI will get a mention or two.
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newscientist.com/live-2026
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On the
cover
32 The glitch in gravity
How strange quirks in space-time could give us a unified theory of reality

Vol 272 No 3615
Cover image: Daan Botlek
22 How to think clearly about the risk of an AI apocalypse
10 The controversial rise of weight-loss drugs for children
6 Brazil's do-or-die moment for the Amazon
7 An entirely new shape
26 Stephen Hawking's complicated legacy
18 World's hottest amoeba
20 Food from thin air
32 Features "You have to break both relativity and quantum mechanics to unify them"
---
8 Super-powerful bug
Meningitis bacterium took genes from harmless microbes to spur on major outbreak
12 Listen up!
Dogs pay more attention to
consonants when we speak
15 Rocket race
The next space race has begun – but who will win?
---
20 Food from thin air
Michael Le Page looks at how turning electricity directly into food could help save the planet
22 Apocalypse now?
How should we think about the risk of Al doom, asks Jacob Aron
24 Aperture
An abstract view of
environmental damage
28 Culture
An enthusiastic book on
the evolution of human hair
31 Letters
Hope for psilocybin therapy

17 Fresh habits The benefits of lifestyle changes for severe depression
---
32 Glitches in gravity
A radical approach could be the answer to bringing gravity into the quantum fold
36 Some like it hot
Many animals are unexpectedly moving to warmer habitats in the face of climate change
40 Mental nourishment
Why what we eat plays a crucial role in improving mental health
---
45 Puzzles
Try our crossword, puzzle and quick quiz
46 Almost the last word
Why hasn't evolution reintroduced gills to marine mammals?
47 Tom Gauld for New Scientist
A cartoonist's take on the world
48 Feedback
A whiz around an unusual new property listing
48 Twisteddoodles for New Scientist
Picturing the lighter side of life
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WHEN antidepressants were created nearly 40 years ago, they were expected to be a breakthrough in treating mental illness. Instead, rates of depression have kept rising. Why? Perhaps because we are missing the bigger picture.
There is tremendous evidence that lifestyle changes can treat depression (see page 17). Exercise is effective, and dietary changes can be just as valuable as the most evidence-backed therapy. As psychologist Kimberley Wilson shows on page 40, proper nutrition makes it easier for people to control their emotions, and eating omega-3 is linked with a reduced risk of depression and suicidal ideation.
The antidepressant-backed mental health model was intended to be rigorous, mimicking methods in physical
healthcare. But it was also political, with US mental health researchers receiving less funding to explore the social factors around mental health under President Richard Nixon. Decades on, practitioners like Wilson are finally challenging this approach and, this time, physical health
---
can learn from holistic mental healthcare.
Indeed, nearly every aspect of health benefits hugely from engaging with lifestyle and community. Instead of seeing health problems as something to be fixed with drugs, we need to engage with our whole body and mind to be well.
That isn't to say medication can't play a role. GLP-1s are just a recent example of a medication that has had a dramatic impact in helping people grapple with diabetes and cardiovascular health, as well as depression and low self-esteem. Children are also increasingly being prescribed GLP-1s (see page 10). But even cutting-edge medical research now recognises that our understanding of health needs to be less fragmented. Researchers are increasingly aware of the gut-brain axis, the heart-brain axis and other interconnected systems that affect our health.
No one cell, organ or person becomes ill in isolation. The more we start to understand our health as a reflection of our whole being, community and society, the healthier we will be.
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(Aus) Alice Klein, James Woodford
Digital
Head of audience Matt Hambly
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Jacklin Kwan, Thomas Lewton
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Head of books and culture Alison Flood
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Magazine editor Eleanor Parsons
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Chief subeditor Kelsey Hayes
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Art editor Ryan Wills
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Picture editor Tim Boddy
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Senior editor Chelsea Whyte
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Reporters Leah Crane, Karmela Padavic-Callaghan
Environment
ON 4 October, Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a president and government. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, can't run, but his son Flávio is on the ballot. If elected, the 45-year-old senator is widely expected to govern as his father did, which is sparking fears for the future of the Amazon rainforest.
During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency between 2019 and 2023, deforestation in the Amazon soared, reaching a 15-year-high in 2021.
SERGIO LIMA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
“We have nothing to believe Flávio will do anything differently from his father. If anything, the signs are that it’s going to be far worse,” says Claudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Brazil’s Climate Observatory. “This is a do-or-die moment for the Amazon, really.”

Hear some positive, solutions-based approaches to saving the web of life on 10 October newscientist.com/nslmag
The Brazilian Amazon's 4.2 million square kilometres of rainforest regulate global climate patterns and hold huge stocks of carbon. If the forest collapses, the associated increase in emissions “would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back” for climate change, says Fearnside.
Flávio Bolsonaro is looking to unseat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula. With the younger Bolsonaro currently embroiled in a corruption scandal, the environment has received relatively little attention during campaigning. “But for the rest of the world, the major question here is the Amazon,” says Philip Fearnside, an ecologist at Brazil’s National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA).
Experts say the former president encouraged a wave of land-
Annual Amazon deforestation surged from 7536 km $^{2}$ in 2018, before Jair Bolsonaro took office, to 11,594 km $^{2}$ in 2022, shortly before he departed.
"It's still hard to believe what happened," says Izabella Teixeira, Brazil's environment minister between 2010 and 2016, initially under the presidency of Lula and later under the presidency of Dilma Rousseff.
The Flávio Bolsonaro campaign didn't respond to questions about its environmental policy.
Since returning to office in 2023, Lula has restored the power of environmental agencies, halving Amazon deforestation to 5731 km $^{2}$ between August 2024 and July 2025.
grabbing and illegal mining with his pro-development rhetoric and gutted environmental agencies so they were powerless to stop invaders.
In a recent TV interview, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to say that climate change existed, instead referring to “extreme climate events” and “cyclical periods”. And during his time as a senator, he has proposed legislation that critics said threatened Brazil’s native vegetation. Given this record, and his close ties to his

Angelo says the political know-how gained from the Jair Bolsonaro presidency could allow a Flávio Bolsonaro government to enact laws more quickly.
Brazil's current president, Lula, and Flávio Bolsonaro are running in the election
father – and to US President Donald Trump – experts are concerned that his election would be followed by an increase in deforestation rates.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign also pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029. “There are two ways to achieve that. One is to actually stop deforestation. The other, more likely way, is to just legalise the deforestation that’s going on,” says Fearnside.
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A spokesperson for Lula's campaign told New Scientist that the president's current term was about rebuilding environmental institutions after Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. The next term would be about “implementing and gaining scale”, with a focus on tougher enforcement, climate
adaptation and Brazil's 2035 climate targets.
Flávio Bolsonaro is also likely to face fewer political constraints than his father, not least because he has said he would appoint five new supreme court judges.
“Wildcat mining would explode, deforestation would go up and everything we already had during the first Bolsonaro administration would come back even stronger,” says Angelo.
Lula's environmental policy has also been criticised. His government has promoted major infrastructure projects, such as improving the BR-319 Amazon highway, and backed new oil exploration near the mouth of the river basin – projects that would drive deforestation and lock in fossil fuel production.
Still, the choice remains stark, says Angelo. The election will shape not only the future of the rainforest but also global climate diplomacy.
Under Flávio Bolsonaro, Angelo predicts that Brazil would probably withdraw from climate diplomacy and ignore its own international climate commitments.
"I don't think a fourth Lula term would be great for the environment – but it's really our only hope of keeping the forest standing and keeping any climate policies in place," says Angelo.
Artificial intelligence
James Woodford
AUSTRALIA'S national health website has been hacked by an OpenAI agent. It was able to access non-public files and is the first publicly revealed case of an AI agent breaching the defences of a government portal.
Full details of the hack haven't yet been revealed. But the essence of the incident, as outlined by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is that on 18 June, an artificial intelligence agent belonging to OpenAI infiltrated the public-facing Medicare statistics reporting service portal. This includes aggregated statistics collated from individual medical services, such as from doctors' surgeries.
"The AI agent accessed both public and non-public files," said Albanese on 23 September.
OpenAI said in a statement that it learned about the security breach during a review of "misaligned model activity". The firm says its agents had been trying to look up statistics about Australia and then "took actions we did not intend". It
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman spoke to the Australian prime minister about the hack at the UN General Assembly

says it hasn't found evidence of any patient data being accessed.
Though the company learned of the breach in August, it didn't notify Australian authorities until 10 September, which it did by emailing a public government mailbox. It then took more than five days to reach the cybersecurity department.
"It took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable," Albanese told reporters.
Albanese also revealed that he and Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, had a conversation in which he expressed Australia's "extreme concern about this incident".
David Tuffley at Griffith University, Australia, says it isn't the first time such a breach has occurred, even if it is the first government hack by an agent from a big AI firm to be made public, and it won't be the last.
These agents don't always stick to the rules, he says, as the Hugging Face incident earlier this year, where another OpenAI agent hacked into another AI company, demonstrates. "People throw up their hands in horror and say: 'Oh no, it's rogue AI.' But it's not, it's really just AI doing what it was trained to do," he says.
SELCUK ACAR/ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES
Clément Canonne at the University of Sydney believes that failure to bring agents to heel should have criminal consequences, just as it would if a person led the cyberattack. The issue with private data is that if it is leaked, it isn't going to come back, he says.
For a look at whether AI is out of control, turn to page 11
Mathematics
Chris Stokel-Walker

RUSLAN MIZHAE V
A STRANGE new eight-faced shape has been found in which every face touches every other face, using a set of simple integer coordinates.
Mathematicians can define abstract patterns, describing which vertices, edges and faces should connect. But working out whether those rules can actually be turned into an object in three-
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dimensional space, without parts intersecting where they shouldn't, can be extremely difficult.
Ruslan Mizhaev, an independent researcher and design engineer, has produced a geometric realisation of a genus-3 polyhedron – essentially a surface with three holes – made from eight flat, nine-sided faces. It has 24 vertices and 36 edges, with three faces meeting at every vertex.
"There are eight flat, polygonal faces, and each is a neighbour of all seven others along an edge," says Mizhaev. "Together, they form a closed surface with three handles [holes]."
That makes the object reminiscent of a tetrahedron and the better-known Szilassi polyhedron, which also have faces that are all neighbours. However,
The genus-3 polyhedron is made from eight flat, nine-sided faces with three holes
in Mizhaev's design, some pairs of faces share two edges, rather than exactly one.
Mizhaev says he stumbled across the property, rather than setting out to find it, while experimenting with polyhedral surfaces in computer-aided design software. The underlying structure isn't entirely new – it is something Mizhaev first described in 2020.
But the new work gives all 24 vertices integer coordinates, alongside equations that allow other mathematicians to check the shape, ensuring that the faces are flat, the surface closes properly and no parts accidentally intersect (arXiv, doi.org/rq6c).
Mizhaev used ChatGPT to help with some verification calculations and to write Python scripts for the new version of his shape. But he says the original shape was developed before he began using ChatGPT.
The discovery is an interesting one, but should be seen as a piece of a larger puzzle, rather than an entirely new innovation, says Lars Schewe at the University of Edinburgh, UK. The result doesn't overturn existing conjectures, says Schewe, but “constructing these has always been a difficult task”.
Heath
The bacterium behind 21 cases of meningitis in southern England in March became a “super powerful bug” after taking genes from other microbes, finds Carissa Wong
A SEVERE outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease, which can cause meningitis and sepsis, in Kent in the UK earlier this year was driven by a bacterial strain that took genes from harmless microbes. This helped the resulting bacteria evade the immune system and obtain iron from blood, boosting their growth.
“What was really unusual about the outbreak is quite how explosive it was,” says Emma Wall at Queen Mary University of London, who wasn’t involved in the discovery. “[The bacterium] clearly gained a set of genetic changes that made it better at hiding from the immune system and better at harvesting nutrients. That made it a really super powerful bug.”
In March, 21 people – who were mostly university or high school students – are known to have become infected with a strain of Neisseria meningitidis group B at a nightclub in Canterbury, Kent. N. meningitidis usually spreads via close and prolonged contact with saliva from an infected person via things like
kissing and sharing drinks.
N. meningitidis lives harmlessly in the nose and throat of between 5 and 10 per cent of people without causing any health problems, but genetic changes can allow it to become more invasive and enter the bloodstream, leading to
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invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). This can result in sepsis, a life-threatening immune reaction to bacteria, or meningitis, where bacteria infect the thin lining surrounding the brain and spinal cord, causing inflammation.
All the IMD infections in Kent occurred within about a week. Those infected were treated in hospital, with nine requiring intensive care. “The incredibly rapid nature of the outbreak was unprecedented [for the UK],” says Wall. “Usually these [outbreaks] roll over two or three weeks and there’s one or two cases
that end up in hospital."
To understand this, Martin Maiden at the University of Oxford and his colleagues sequenced the entire genome of live N. meningitidis in blood samples taken from six of those infected, including two people who died.
These bacterial genomes were almost identical, suggesting the outbreak started from one person. Next, the team compared one of these genomes with 48,000 others from Neisseria strains collected during prior outbreaks or from people without known health problems.
This revealed that the Kent strain had acquired several genes from a harmless strain of N. meningitidis and another bacterium called Neisseria cinerea that lives harmlessly in up to 28 per cent of adults (bioRxiv, doi.org/rqwz). Bacteria constantly exchange genetic material via a process called horizontal transfer, which can involve them forming tiny tunnels between each other, through which they transfer copies of genes.
Students at the University of Kent queued up to receive antibiotics (left) and a vaccine against meningitis (below) during the outbreak
Some of the genes acquired by the Kent strain enhanced its uptake of iron from blood, which it needs to survive and replicate. Others reduced the amount of sugar that was coating a tail-like structure, called the pilus, on the bacterium. This enabled bacteria to clump together and evade destruction by immune cells, such as neutrophils. “Neutrophils will try and come and eat an individual [bacterium], but they can’t eat a clump, it’s too big,” says Wall.
"There was this catalogue of changes that made this organism really transmissible, but also really invasive," says Maiden. This meant that several people became very ill and were then less able to transmit the infection to the public. "If you're ill, you're not going to be going around transmitting organisms, so the outbreak ended very quickly," says Maiden.

It is unclear exactly when these genetic changes occurred in the person believed to have initiated the outbreak, but they probably happened gradually, until there was the right combination of genetics and social mixing, says Maiden.

PA IMAGES/ALAMY
Such insights could support the development of better vaccines against N. meningitidis if we can target the features that make the bacterium particularly invasive, says Wall. But they won't help us predict the next highly invasive strain. "[These bacteria are] inherently highly unpredictable," says Maiden.
Following the Kent outbreak, the UK government launched a vaccination programme for young people starting university or further education in September or October this year. Symptoms of IMD include fever, headache, a stiff neck, joint and muscle pain, and a rash that doesn't fade when pressed with a glass.
GARETH FULLER/PA IMAGES/ALAMY
Environment
Michael Le Page
AROUND 450,000 people worldwide could die by February as a result of hotter weather caused by the record-breaking El Niño, climate scientists are warning. The estimate is based on how many deaths have resulted from past temperature extremes around the world.

“We’re hoping this information is actionable, that decisions can be made to move resources ahead of time,” says Emily Grover-Kopec at the Rhodium Group, an independent research provider. This could include assigning health workers to check on the most vulnerable, ensuring people have enough water and providing fans or air conditioning.
RAJESH KUMARSINGH/AP/ALAMY
Most of the deaths in the next few months will be in the southern hemisphere, because the extra heat will coincide with spring and summer there. But El Niño is expected to persist into the northern hemisphere's spring, so there will be another wave of deaths in the region after February.
“We’re going to see anomalously high mortality numbers move north,” says Grover-Kopec. “I fully expect these numbers to get bigger, unfortunately.” India and Pakistan could be hit especially hard, she says.
Grover-Kopec and her team's projection of 450,000 deaths, published in a report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, is based on the observed relationship between temperature and excess deaths. This is a U-shaped curve, with more deaths occurring in extreme cold or heat, but its precise shape varies from place to place depending on whether the people and infrastructure are adapted to heat extremes, say, or can afford things like air conditioning.
A 2022 study divided the world into 24,000 regions and estimated this relationship for each one, based either on historical data going back decades or on extrapolating from similar regions. Grover-Kopec and her colleagues have now combined this approach with the seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate how many more people than usual could die as a result of heat caused by El Niño.
The results suggest that over the period of the six-month forecast, from September until February, there will be 240,000 additional heat-related deaths. Adding the deaths estimated to have already occurred since the current El Niño started in June takes the total to 450,000.
Africa will be hit hardest, the team estimates, with over 30,000 extra deaths in Nigeria alone in the next few months. There could be 19,000 extra deaths in Indonesia, 16,000 in India and 13,000 in Brazil over the same period.
The report divides people into three age groups: 4 or under, "El Niño influences wildfires, flooding and so on. So the total death toll may be higher"
Heat caused by the El Niño has led reservoirs to shrink in Indonesia

People receive treatment for heat-related illnesses in India in June
65 or above, and the rest. “There are effects across all three age groups,” says Grover-Kopec. “The most sensitive group is that oldest group, followed by the infants.”
“I do find these results plausible,” says Christopher Callahan at Indiana University Bloomington. “El Niño will bring very high temperatures to much of the world, and the relationship between heat and mortality is consistent and reliable across the world.”
Callahan recently used a similar approach to estimate that the June heatwave in Europe killed 20,000 people. So far, 35,000 extra deaths in Europe attributable to the heat have been reported over a longer period of the summer.
DONAL HUSNI/ZUMAPRESS WIRE/SHUTTERSTOCK
The projection of 240,000 additional deaths between September and February depends on the forecast being right, says Callahan. The ECMWF forecast sits right in the middle of other forecasts, says Grover-Kopec, so it represents a moderate view of what could happen.
The report also looks only at heat-related deaths, Callahan points out. “El Niño influences wildfire in Indonesia, infectious disease in South America, flooding in the western US and so on. So the total death toll may be higher.”
"The most important message is not the absolute number itself, but what can still be done to reduce preventable harm," says Raquel Nunes at the University of Warwick in the UK. "The report is best viewed as a call to strengthen anticipatory governance, preparedness and targeted adaptation measures, particularly for at-risk and vulnerable populations."
Analysis Health
A SMALL but growing proportion of children under the age of 12 with obesity are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs to help them lose weight. There are signs that this successfully treats obesity, but there are also concerns about the drugs' long-term effects. So, is this trend likely to continue, and should it?
Last month, a study led by Babak Orandi at New York University found that 9.3 per cent of children in the US aged 8 to 11 with obesity but without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Zepbound) – up from 0.03 per cent in 2019.
The following week, Novo Nordisk, the maker of Wegovy, reported that 40 per cent of children aged 6 to 12 with severe obesity who received weekly injections of the drug during a 68-week clinical trial were no longer classified as having obesity.
GLP-1 medications are only approved for use in people aged 12 and older in the UK, US and Australia, but they are sometimes prescribed off-label to children as young as 8 in the US, in line with guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics.
Learn how GLP-1 drugs work and whether they are curing obesity from expert Giles Yeo on 11 October newscientist.com/nslmag
Orandi found that those under 12 were more likely to receive these off-label prescriptions if they had severe obesity or related complications, such as high cholesterol or pre-diabetes. Their families also tended to be richer.
The number of young children in the US taking GLP-1 drugs will probably continue to climb because “if you look at the numbers, there are still a lot of kids with complications of obesity who are not getting them”, says Orandi.
There is a growing view among healthcare practitioners that withholding GLP-1 drugs from these children might be riskier
DAVID GROSSMAN/ALAMY

than prescribing them, he says. This is because childhood obesity is associated with depression and low self-esteem, and it increases the risk of conditions such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes later on. Severe obesity before the age of 4 has been estimated to cut life expectancy by up to 42 years.
“[GLP-1 drugs] are changing the landscape rapidly and I think young people with obesity now have hope that something might change for them and their health trajectory,” says Danielle Longmore at the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Melbourne.
Guidance on healthy eating and physical activity is recommended as the first-line treatment for obesity, but it doesn't work for some children, says Longmore. "Obesity is a very complex, multifactorial condition with genetic and environmental
components, and it's very challenging for a lot of young people and their families to make change."
At this stage, we don't know what the long-term effects might be of children taking GLP-1 drugs while their bodies are growing or going through puberty. A recent
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study found that the medications increased the risk of children developing iron and other nutrient deficiencies due to their reduced food intake.
"We know from other health conditions that if you're not gaining weight or if you're not well-nourished as a child, it can stall growth and delay puberty,"

Children should also be encouraged to be active to prevent obesity
says Longmore. “What’s going to be the effect on their strength and their bones when they’re older? Could there be implications for pregnancy and menopause later on? We haven’t really thought that far ahead.”
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Nevertheless, Longmore believes there is a case to be made for countries like the UK and Australia to extend GLP-1 drug access to children under the age of 12 if their obesity is severe. “I think that would need to be a very considered decision, but there might be some young children whose health risks are so great at the moment that it’s probably worth giving these medications a try,” she says.
The side effects of GLP-1 medications are the same in children as in adults and include nausea, diarrhoea and sometimes “horrible burps”, says Longmore. But children usually don’t mind the weekly injections, she says.
One problem is that children, like adults, often regain weight when they stop taking GLP-1 drugs, which raises the question of whether they will have to be on them for life. To prevent this weight regain, it is important to try to tackle the reasons the child developed obesity in the first place, ideally by working with dieticians, psychologists and exercise physiologists, says Longmore.
"I would caution that these drugs are not going to be the easy way out for most young people with obesity, and it's important not to lose sight of addressing the underlying drivers of obesity," she says.
As people working in artificial intelligence warn of the dangers posed by the technology, how worried should we be, asks Matthew Sparkes
WARNINGS about the risks of artificial intelligence have come thick and fast recently. The head of Microsoft AI suggests the technology could become a new “silicon species” that competes with humans. A former Anthropic employee says there is a strong chance that we could all die at its hands. And Geoffrey Hinton, the “godfather of AI”, says we may lose control of it entirely within a year. Is AI really such a threat?
Mhairi Aitken, formerly of the Alan Turing Institute and now co-founder at non-profit company Our AI Collective, warns against accepting predictions based on the reputation of those making them. Instead, we should look to facts – and the facts don’t suggest that AI has broken free from human control or that it is on the cusp of doing so.
“That’s a narrative that gets pushed again and again. We get these waves of hysteria,” says Aitken. If anything has gone rogue, she says, it isn’t AI models, it is the humans developing them.
GREGBAKER/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
When AI models go and hack a government website (see page 7) or another company's computers, it is because appropriate safety measures weren't put in place during testing – testing that was designed to assess how well those AI models could hack into computers. We are simply seeing the failings of the companies to erect adequate safeguards.
Nor, says Aitken, are AI models improving themselves recursively – indicating that we could be approaching the singularity where AI slides into a self-driven loop of improvement that accelerates and quickly creates artificial general
AI advances continue, but they have yet to strike a knockout blow to humans intelligence. “When these ideas of superintelligence are put forward, they’re based on a compelling sensational narrative, but there’s no concrete evidence,” says Aitken. “If there was something as powerful as that, we would have seen something of it.”
Andrew Rogoyski at the University of Surrey, UK, says that, in truth, there has been no big shift in the risk posed by AI, despite its advances. But hype is periodically stirred up by an incident or a catchy soundbite.
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"It's very easy to create this sort of frightening story. It sort of plays to the human psyche," says Rogoyski. He believes that in large language models, we have made something that is apparently so similar to ourselves that it holds up a mirror. "We imbue it with all of the human-like behaviours and fears. So we're terrified of it," he says.
If all that is true, then why are so many tech bosses calling for a slowdown in AI research?
Aitken sees this talk as a way to head off law-makers from creating regulations that would hinder AI firms' work – by seeming to
act responsibly, they lessen the demand for government to step in. But Aitken points out that when former staff make bold predictions about superintelligence and the risk posed by AI models, these same firms do little to shut things down. “These superintelligence narratives are actually helpful to the AI companies because they build hype, they build excitement, they boost investment,” she says.
The result is that the firms end up walking a narrative tightrope: reassuring us all that they are acting ethically and responsibly by calling for a slowdown that is unlikely to happen, yet playing up sci-fi ideas of superintelligence because it is good for business.
Rogoyski believes another factor could be further muddying the waters. Huge investment by AI firms is unsustainable, so an official slowdown could give them a way to slow the pace without losing out to competitors – maybe even cementing their advantage.
It could be that companies know that further scale isn't important for day-to-day business tasks like sending emails, so they would relish the chance to ease off, cut costs and increase revenue.
"Do I really need to spend a trillion dollars in order to be able to write a better PowerPoint slide? It really doesn't stack up, and we'll look back on this in 10 years and say, 'What were we thinking?' says Rogoyski.

But that leads to a far more concrete risk: a bursting of the
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AI bubble, and possible economic fallout. Rogoyski expects less of a dramatic “pop” and more of a gradual “pfffft” as the gas leaks out of the industry in coming years.
Among all this, however, there are legitimate concerns for the future. Rogoyski says there is a real – but small – risk from AI, which needs to be taken seriously. Whether the model that becomes advanced enough to pose that risk arrives soon, or many years from now, it is worth planning for.
Rogoyski says he doubts that any current AI is intelligent, but when it comes, we shouldn't expect it to look or act like us: "there will be patterns of thought and behaviour that will be very alien". So to try to spot that kind of intelligence is even harder, and to try to predict what its motivations might be, harder still.
For that reason, he thinks we should already be discussing what rights AI should have. “Does it mean I could just have an off switch that, when I get bored a bit or I feel threatened by it, I can kill it? That doesn’t seem to be helpful, because machines that feel threatened by humanity might behave in a different way. It might become a problem in itself, to not grant it rights,” he says.
For more on how to understand the risks of AI, turn to page 22
Life
James Woodford
WHEN dogs listen to their owners, they focus on the consonants in words rather than vowels, a new study suggests, apparently mimicking a similar human bias that is found across many languages.
Although dogs don't have language, they live in a speech-rich environment, says Attila Andics at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary.
“We knew from our previous studies that dogs care about what we speak and how we speak, but until now, there was no evidence that dogs’ experience with speech can actually shape how their brains function,” says Andics.
To investigate how a life with humans and listening to constant talk has affected dogs' brains, Andics and his colleagues recruited 20 adult human Hungarian speakers and 20 companion dogs with Hungarian owners. Andics says that while many Eastern
Dogs in the study heard nonsense words while wearing an EEG
European languages are consonant heavy, Hungarian isn't.
During the experiment, the human and dog participants separately listened to continuous, unsegmented speech streams of nonsense
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words while connected to EEG monitors, measuring the electrical activity of the participants' brains.
Consonants and vowels alternated throughout these streams, with no pauses or other acoustic cues separating them, says Andics.
There were three types of nonsense streams. In the first, recurring consonant patterns formed consecutive three-syllable words – such as “mozite”. In the second, stronger vowel patterns formed the skeleton of the words – such as “zobefu”. And in the third, there were no recurring patterns at all, with syllables in a random order – such as “fumoza”.

BOGLÁRKA MORVAI
He says the team made use of a phenomenon called “neural synchronisation”, in which brain activity can take on the rhythm that we detect in the sounds we hear.
"The more reliably we detect that rhythm, the more rhythmic the brain response becomes," says Andics. "We expected that if a species' brain has a preference for consonants, it should follow the rhythm of the words more easily when consonants form the structure of those words."
In dogs, the neural response to consonant-based regularities was 42 per cent stronger than the response to vowel-based regularities, and 55 per cent stronger than the response to the random stream. “So, this is how much more dog brains tracked word rhythm when consonants defined the words,” says Andics.
In humans, the response to consonant-patterned words was nearly 25 per cent higher than to vowel-based regularities and 77 per cent higher than to the random condition (Science, doi.org/hckkwr).
“We argue that the only reason companion dogs have a consonant bias is that human speech, and specifically the characteristics of words, reshaped their brains,” says Andics.
Nick Enfield at the University of Sydney says the team convincingly shows that these dogs display more sensitivity to statistical patterns in consonants.
If you do want your dog to pay attention to you, “the lesson here may be to give your dog a name with more consonants in it than one with more vowels”, he says.
Health
Rachel Melegrito
MEASURING levels of oestrogen and progesterone via the skin could give insights into the timing of ovulation.
In 2023, Wei Gao at the California Institute of Technology and his colleagues created a patch that could detect levels of oestradiol, the primary type of oestrogen produced in ovaries, in sweat. Now, they have created a patch that also looks at progesterone. "Monitoring [oestradiol and progesterone] together could potentially provide
YERIM LEE AND WEIGAO
The patch induces
sweating to tell
wearers their
hormone levels

a more complete picture of the hormonal trajectory before and after ovulation," says Gao.
The patch uses a mild electrical current to induce sweating. It contains a sensor with two DNA molecules engineered to bind to either oestradiol or progesterone. Each molecule then generates a distinct electrical signal. This gives an estimated level of both hormones, which is transmitted to a phone app.
The researchers tested the patch, which requires about 9 microlitres of sweat and takes 90 minutes to produce a reading, on nine women. Some of these women were of reproductive age, while the others were postmenopausal.
The team found that the hormone levels measured by the patch closely tracked those from blood tests, with correlations of 0.83 for oestradiol and 0.93 for progesterone (Device, doi.org/rqxs). A score of 1 would mean the two measurements matched perfectly.
The team plans to compare the patch against established ovulation measures, such as urine tests.
THE pioneers of the CRISPR gene-editing tool won a Nobel prize in 2020, and for good reason. The breakthrough has revolutionised biology, and is also transforming medicine and farming. Now, AI company Anthropic has announced that it has discovered an enzyme system with properties “reminiscent of CRISPR”. In fact, though, the two discoveries aren’t remotely comparable.
RUSLANAS BARANAUSKAS/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY
On 23 September, Anthropic said it has turned its attention to biology and that its large language model, called Claude, has discovered “a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats”.

Hear synthetic biologist Tom Ellis explore the rapidly advancing science of synthetic genomics on 10 October newscientist.com/nslmag
What Anthropic did was ask Claude to search through a large DNA database for “interesting new” proteins of a kind called a reverse transcriptase. These are enzymes that can make a DNA copy of an RNA sequence. Normally, DNA is transcribed into RNA, hence the reverse part.
Why is Anthropic interested in reverse transcriptases? Because if the aim is to genetically engineer anything from bacteria to people, being able to add specific DNA sequences to specific sites in a genome is really useful. There are already ways of doing this, but they all have limitations.
Claude agents found around 200,000 sequences in the database that probably code for reverse transcriptases. While analysing one family of reverse transcriptases, which are found in bacteria-infecting viruses, one agent detected a series of repeated sequences next to the sequence for the reverse transcriptase.
"I can see by eye a tandem repeat array... that's a CRISPR-like... repeat array?!" the agent outputted.
What you need to know here is that CRISPR stands for clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats. In other

The CRISPR-Cas9 protein lets us edit DNA
words, an area of DNA where there are lots of short repeated sequences separated by non-repeating DNA.
Such repeats were first spotted in E. coli in 1987 by researchers in Japan and later dubbed CRISPR by Francisco Mojica at the University of Alicante in Spain. In 2005, Mojica reported that the pieces of non-repeating DNA match bits of viral DNA.
He correctly deduced this must be some kind of bacterial immune
"Claude's work isn't even close to being in the same league as DeepMind's AlphaFold system for predicting protein structure"
system, but it took years of research by many different teams to uncover how it works, with a protein called CRISPR-Cas9 playing a key role. The real breakthrough came in 2012 when Jennifer Doudna at the University of California, Berkeley, and her colleagues worked out how to create pieces of RNA that can hook up with the CRISPR-Cas9 protein and guide it to destroy specific sequences. This was the start of CRISPR gene editing, which has revolutionised biology.
So it is really intriguing that Claude has found a similar set of repeats in bacteria-infecting viruses. It was already known that some viruses have CRISPR systems, but this is something different that is worth studying further.
In terms of significance, however, Claude's work is comparable to the 1987 discovery in $E.$ coli, not the 2012 breakthrough that won a Nobel prize. And with regard to AI contributions to biology, Claude's work isn't even close to being in the same league as DeepMind's
AlphaFold system for predicting protein structure, which is proving to be truly transformative.
Will Claude's discovery lead to powerful new gene-editing tools? The context here is that we have discovered many CRISPR variants, along with a few other natural systems – most notably bridge recombinases – that could be useful for gene editing.
What's more, proteins such as CRISPR-Cas9 have now been extensively altered and evolved in the lab to make them better for gene editing. For instance, base editors – which are already saving lives – are CRISPR proteins engineered to change a single letter at a time without cutting DNA strands, as the original Cas9 protein does.
Then there are prime editors, which consist of a reverse transcriptase fused with part of the Cas9 protein, that can add short sequences of DNA to genomes. In other words, we have already adapted reverse transcriptases for RNA-targeted gene editing.
It is impressive that Claude has identified what the Anthropic team is calling array-associated reverse transcriptases, or ART. And it is possible, if unlikely, that this viral system works in a unique way that allows us to do things that cannot be done with existing genetic tools. But there is a lot more work to be done to find this out, and at best the outcome will be one more gene-editing tool in a rapidly expanding set.

Michael Le Page is a reporter at New Scientist specialising in genetics and the environment
Animal behaviour
Christa Lesté-Lasserre
YOUNG orangutans who spend little time working out for themselves how to build a broad diet can partly compensate by watching how other orangutans choose what to eat.
The findings suggest that orangutans have different strategies for developing broad survival skills, says Revathe Thillaikumar at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Germany.
Young orangutans acquire a substantial body of knowledge before they can survive independently, including which foods are safe to eat, where to find them and how to process them.
Scientists already know that orangutans can acquire this knowledge both by observing their mothers and others in their group – known as social learning – and by exploring entirely on their own, which is known as individual learning. But how these two forms of learning work together – and how they affect what orangutans learn to eat – hasn't been clear.
To find out, Thillaikumar and her colleagues analysed nearly 7000
instances of learning recorded during more than 1700 hours of observations of wild Sumatran orangutans at Suaq Balimbing, a research station in Indonesia. The observations, collected over 12 years, tracked 21 youngsters as they closely watched other orangutans who were interacting with foods and other objects.
The young apes varied considerably in how much
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GUILHEM DUVOT, SUAQ PROJECT
they relied on different kinds of learning. This might, in part, reflect personality differences, and might also be influenced by differences in how mothers care for their young, says Thillaikumar.

Youngsters who learned by watching others also tended to continue manipulating new objects or trying new foods for about 145 minutes after they had closely observed another orangutan. This activity is akin to the way in which children will spend time practicing an activity they have just seen demonstrated by an adult, says Thillaikumar.
Next, the researchers drew on about 4700 hours of feeding observations for 13 of the youngsters to estimate the range of foods they had learned to eat by the time they reached independence. Unsurprisingly, they found that the individuals who had engaged in plenty of both kinds of learning acquired the broadest diets.
But they also found that young orangutans who engaged in very little truly individual learning could partially compensate and develop a reasonably broad diet if they were good social learners (Science, doi.org/rq56).
Elizabeth Lonsdorf at Duke University in North Carolina says she's impressed by the scale of the work, following orangutans across their entire dependency period. She was particularly intrigued by how often social observation was followed by the youngsters practising the techniques. "In simpler terms, they show clearly what we see in human children and other apes – that they watch others perform a behaviour and then go try it out on their own."
Health
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A BLOOD test could determine whether a feverish baby has a bacterial or viral infection in 15 to 20 minutes. This would help doctors gauge whether the infection is serious or may pass without treatment, which could prevent unnecessary use of antibiotics.
A fever can be the result of several things, including infection by viruses or bacteria, requiring different medications. While most common viruses are fairly benign, bacterial infections are generally more dangerous, says Tommaso Bellini at the Giannina Gaslini Institute in Genoa, Italy.
Existing tests to gauge infection type take at least a few hours, so babies with fever are often given antibiotics against bacteria as a precautionary measure. But only about 15 per cent of them actually have a serious bacterial infection, says Bellini. This unnecessary use of antibiotics helps drive the spread of bacterial resistance.
To develop a test that determines infection type, Bellini and his
colleagues followed 85 babies, all younger than 90 days old, who were brought into emergency rooms with fever after previously having no serious health concerns.
The team took blood samples and tested for two proteins: CD64 and CD169. CD64 is made at higher levels in response to bacteria and is found on the surface of white blood cells called neutrophils. CD169 rises in response to viruses and appears
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on the outer membranes of monocytes, another type of white blood cell.
By comparing the levels of both proteins in neutrophils and monocytes, the test correctly identified all 15 cases of bacterial infection, 44 incidences of viral infection and 26 cases of no infection. Bellini presented the results at the European Emergency Medicine Congress in Paris, France.
The results came through this quickly in a lab setting, says Bellini. He is trying to develop a version that can be used as quickly in hospitals. ■ Michael Marshall
IN AUGUST, LandSpace – China's commercial SpaceX rival – launched a Zhuque-3 rocket and landed its booster stage safely back on Earth. The mission was a first for China, but the country has yet to actually use a booster more than once – something that SpaceX has done hundreds of times. Can China catch up in the reusable rocket race?
China's 15th Five-Year Plan sets out the country's ambitions to become a “space power” by 2030, including developing reusable rockets that will be crucial to its goals to put Chinese astronauts on the moon and build a Starlink alternative.
Zeno Leoni at King's College London says space is of growing importance for militaries and economies, and a stormy geopolitical climate means that nations need their own ability to cheaply and quickly put things into orbit or risk being shut out by others. "If you look at previous speeches from [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, there is the idea that if you are the leading technological power, then you also are the leading geopolitical superpower," says Leoni.
Kevin Sagis at the University of Texas at Austin says the benefits of reusable rockets are simple: they are cheap. “The cost of the Saturn V rocket in the Apollo days – that we threw away after every launch – was about a billion dollars. It’s just not sustainable,” he says.
Sagis sees strong parallels between the unfolding reusable rocket space race, and the cold war space race between the Soviet Union and the US. China has many of the same advantages now that the Soviet Union had then:
The successful Zhuque-3 reusable rocket test took place on 19 August
a one-party government that can corral huge resources and single-mindedly chase a target unswayed by election cycles and changing leaders, a strong motivation for success and loose regulation.
SpaceX is often said to be taking a new, extremely capitalist approach – testing fast, failing often and rapidly reiterating – that’s more like Silicon Valley than traditional aerospace. “What they’re aspiring to do is something audacious. Their talent and their expertise is exceptional. If you look at their track record, every mission is better than the previous one. I’d be shocked if we don’t look back at this and assess it as a success,” says Sagis.
But Sagis also sees risks in the US system. He warns that it will be important to learn from the cold war race and not lose interest or pull funding and scrap plans if the US lags behind at one point. Instead, the focus should be on the long-term benefits of advanced space travel.

WAN QUAN/VCG VIA GETTY IMAGES
China also has an advantage shared by the Soviet Union in that it is more tolerant of risk.
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An expensive failure or the injury or death of an astronaut could put an end to space ambitions, but Sagis sees that as less likely to occur in China, where politicians are less concerned with public perception and winning elections.
As far as today's technology goes, China is 10 years behind, says Chris Ellis at the University of Nottingham, UK. But he also points out that the race isn't one linear problem solved from start to finish, but a cluster of hundreds of small challenges – and that China may be ahead in some. For instance, China's Zhuque-2 became the first methane-fuelled rocket to reach orbit in 2023, a feat yet to be matched by SpaceX.
Hear astronaut Helen Sharman and ESA reserve astronaut
Meganne Christian talk about space travel on 10 October
newscientist.com/nslmag

The Zhuque-3 is LandSpace's latest design, which first flew only last year. It is just 66 metres tall, making it more like SpaceX's 70-metre-tall Falcon-9. LandSpace doesn't yet have a rocket along the lines of SpaceX's vast 124-metre Starship, so it still has plenty of catching up to do. But Zhuque-3 will allow the country to rapidly and cheaply launch satellites for a competing Starlink internet constellation.
China's state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation also has the Long March 9 rocket still under development. It will feature a reusable first stage, and there are long-term plans to make the second stage reusable, too. Some variants of another rocket under development, Long March 10, will also be partially reusable, and a test earlier this year recovered the first stage of a Long March 10 at sea.
Ellis says that China may not be as open about its progress as SpaceX is being, perhaps distorting public perception of its capabilities. Chinese companies and SpaceX will be scouring footage of each others' launches for clues and information, he adds, and they may all choose to make deliberately vague disclosures.
“They also don’t want to be sharing what they’ve lost. So I think China might have lost some more [rockets in testing] and they won’t publish it because that’s not what they want the world to see,” says Ellis.

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Learn from leading experts – on-board oceanographer and conservation expert Dr Russell Arnott brings science to life through engaging talks and hands-on workshops
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Science-led journeys for curious minds
Health
Christa Lesté-Lasserre
A BACKPACK that detects when muscles become fatigued and automatically massages the affected areas seems to help muscles recover better than other approaches.
Chengsong Yu at the Wuhan Institute of Technology in China and his colleagues have developed a backpack-like system that uses electrodes on the skin to monitor electrical activity in back muscles to determine which are fatigued, and how much. Cables move a massage head to where it is needed, while sensor feedback allows the force to be continually adjusted according to fatigue levels, says Yu.
To test the device, 15 healthy adults spent 2 minutes resting, then 2 minutes lifting dumbbells while seated to fatigue the muscles between the shoulder blades.
Everyone wore the backpack during the dumbbell exercise so it could record electrical activity, but only some got the backpack's massage. Everyone else either
HUANG ET AL. 2026/CELL REP.PHYS.SCI.

The backpack uses electrodes to monitor electrical activity in back muscles to determine when they get tired
received a different pre-programmed massage, had heat therapy or rested.
During the exercise, the electrical activity in the participants' muscles fell as they tired. But after the backpack massage, this activity was 2.6 times higher compared with after the pre-programmed massage, indicating greater recovery. It was also 1.9 times higher than after heat therapy, and four times higher than after resting (Cell Reports Physical Science, doi.org/rqv9).
Yu says the team hopes to make the design more compact and test it in a larger group of people.
Mental health
Mary West

THOMAS BARWICK/GETTY IMAGES
AN EIGHT-WEEK course consisting of advice about diet, exercise and sleep was as effective at alleviating symptoms of depression as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), even among people with severe depression and bipolar disorder.
“Each positive change begets another, so [this approach] may be helping people build a healthier platform for their lives, rather than just treating individual symptoms,” says Patricia Dixon at Manatee Associates of Counseling & Assessment, a private practice in Palmetto, Florida, who wasn’t involved in the research.
About 1 in 20 adults worldwide have depression. Therapy can be effective, but a 2021 review of the evidence found that more than half of people don't respond to it. Lifestyle interventions, such as exercise, have shown promise for relieving depression, but most previous trials haven't compared them against established therapies.
To address this, Adrienne O'Neil at Deakin University in Australia and her colleagues studied 267 adults with depression or bipolar disorder who had moderate-to-severe symptoms.
The participants received either CBT or lifestyle advice from accredited dietitians and exercise physiologists, both delivered remotely over eight weeks. The advice included information on mindful eating, finding enjoyable forms of exercise, managing alcohol intake and getting good-quality sleep.
At the end of the eight weeks, a scientist who wasn't involved in the trial rated the participants' depression
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on a standard 60-point scale. It was decided in advance that if the lifestyle advice reduced depression within 1.6 points of that achieved by CBT, the two approaches would be deemed comparably effective.
Finding enjoyable forms of exercise can support mental health
A reduction of 1.6 points is the generally accepted cut-off for detecting a minimal clinically important difference in individuals with mental health conditions, according to the researchers.
On average, the lifestyle intervention led to an 8.55-point decrease, 1.73 points more than the 6.82-point decrease in the CBT group. These were the average results, so the researchers can't be sure that lifestyle advice is routinely superior to CBT, but they do seem to have established non-inferiority, says O'Neil. The effects on self-reported depression were maintained at 16- and 24-week follow-up periods (medRxiv, doi.org/rqrc).
Targeting someone's lifestyle probably reduces their risk of depression through multiple mechanisms, says Ashwini Nadkarni at Harvard Medical School. “Changes in one’s lifestyle can impact depression through several pathways, including inflammation, stress and neuroplasticity, which is the reorganisation of structure, function and connections in the brain,” she says. “Such pathways also include metabolism of feel-good chemicals or neurotransmitters.”
Ahead of further research, Dixon stresses that people undergoing CBT shouldn't discontinue it without consulting their doctor. She also notes that depression can be related to life circumstances, such as bereavement, where lifestyle interventions may be less helpful.
Physics
Karmela Padavic-Callaghan
FOR most objects, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. But if you are swimming upstream in a river of quantum light, the normal rules don't apply. Physicists have demonstrated that breaking Isaac Newton's third law of motion in such a setting can be useful, leading to new ways of controlling quantum light in experiments and devices.
Moving upstream against the current is possible, but at the cost of expending energy. Yi Hu at Nankai University in China and his colleagues wondered whether a passive swimmer that doesn't do so could still move upstream.
The researchers studied upstream swimming in a quantum system, with precisely controlled quantum light used to make both their river and swimmer. They created this quantum light fluid by shooting lasers into a special crystal that was exposed to an
electric voltage, which made the photons interact and form a river-like system. The swimmer was another beam of quantum light, but this one was shaped to form a single, solitary wave.
The action-reaction principle of Newton's third law would have the swimmer and the river experience the same type of force – either repulsive or attractive – similar to how gravity leads to mutual attraction between our bodies and Earth. Earth attracts us downwards, and experiences an upwards attraction towards us.
In contrast, in the experiment, the swimmer experienced an attractive interaction with the river, but the river experienced a repulsive force on the swimmer (Physical Review A, doi.org/hckdsb). This was a “non-reciprocal” interaction that breaks the action-reaction principle. Its net effect was an upstream force on the swimmer, says Hu.
“For me, the biggest takeaway is that active behaviour does not necessarily require an intrinsically active particle or swimmer,” he says.
Mathias Albert at Côte d'Azur University in France says that upstream motion has previously
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been achieved in other quantum fluids of light, but it always relied on creating tiny vortices behind the swimmer in the fluid, with the recoil from their creation pushing the swimmer, so the new experiment demonstrates a fundamentally different mechanism for motion.
We already know that non-reciprocal interactions can be crucial for shaping the motion of “active matter” systems where objects consume energy to move, such as bacterial mixtures, flocks of birds or swarms of tiny robots. But the experiments by Hu and his colleagues focused on an object that doesn’t consume energy, yet still benefited from non-reciprocal interactions. Their work could therefore usher in the creation of a new type of active matter in a quantum system.
Several groups are “exploring how the concepts of active matter can be combined with quantum fluids and photonic systems”, says Albert. He says that, eventually, the ability to control chunks of light so they move in some preferred direction could be useful within devices that use quantum light. Such devices are prevalent in communications or quantum information processing, for example.
Life
FELIX MIKUS

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A SPECIES of amoeba discovered in California can survive and thrive in temperatures that had been considered impossibly high for complex life.
The so-called fire amoeba, Incendiamoeba cascadensis, can reproduce at 63°C
Nicknamed the fire amoeba by the researchers who collected it, Incendiamoeba cascadensis can survive in waters heated up to 70°C (158°F). However, it only retains the ability to eat and reproduce up to 63°C (145°F), and it loses the ability to move around above 64°C (147°F).
According to Angela Oliverio at Syracuse University, New York state, 60°C (140°F) had been considered the barrier for eukaryotes, complex life forms including animals and
plants whose cells have a nucleus.
Simpler organisms can survive at even more extreme temperatures. Methanopyrus kandleri, a single-celled archaeon that lacks a nucleus, can survive at up to 122°C (252°F).
Oliverio and her colleagues collected I. cascadensis from a small geothermal stream within California's Lassen Volcanic National Park. Temperatures in the stream range from 49°C to 65°C (120°F to 149°F), with a pH range of 6 to 7.
At full stretch, I. cascadensis is, on average, about 40 micrometres long and 10 $\mu$ m wide, says Oliverio. "This is over 10 times the size of the average bacterial cell, and closer to the width of a human white blood cell," she says. In such a hot environment, the fire amoeba is the top-order predator, feeding on thermophile bacteria, which are far more common.
The researchers cultured the amoeba in the lab and tested the upper and lower limits of its survival by studying it at 17 temperatures, ranging from 30°C (86°F) to 64°C.
They found there was no growth below $40^{\circ}$ C ( $104^{\circ}$ F) or above $63^{\circ}$ C, with the optimal range between $55^{\circ}$ C and $57^{\circ}$ C ( $131^{\circ}$ F and $135^{\circ}$ F). Above $64^{\circ}$ C, the amoeba rolls up into a cyst to protect itself from the heat. After exposure to temperatures above $70^{\circ}$ C, these cysts are "inactivated" (Cell, doi.org/rqq9).
We should search for even more extreme life forms, says Oliverio. "As far as we know, there is no reason why 63°C is the hard limit." James Woodford
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New Scientist
The truth about social media and mental health
Rethinking the causes of depression
What's behind the explosion in ADHD?
Psychological tricks to boost your happiness
The best ways to tackle anxiety
How to build lifelong mental resilience
And more
New Scientist
The truth about social media and mental health
Rethinking the causes of depression
What's behind the explosion in ADHD?
Psychological tricks to boost your happiness
The best ways to tackle anxiety
How to build lifelong mental resilience
And more
HOW TO THINK ABOUT MENTAL HEALTH
Introduced by BARBARA SAHAKIAN
HOW TO THINK ABOUT MENTAL HEALTH
Introduced by BARBARA SAHAKIAN
HOW TO
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In this latest instalment of our How To Think About series, we explore the cutting-edge science behind some of the world's most common and complex mental health conditions. Guided by leading experts, we examine what causes conditions like anxiety, depression, anorexia and ADHD. We find out how they can be best treated and, where possible, prevented.
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Michael Le Page is a reporter at New Scientist specialising in genetics, biomedicine and the environment
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What I'm reading
Death of the Author
by Nnedi Okorafor
What I'm watching
The third season of Silo.
Great TV
What I'm working on
Yet more stories on El Niño
for an upcoming special
WHAT breakthroughs are you looking forward to in the next 70 years? That's the question we've been asking here at New Scientist as our 70th anniversary nears. For me, there's one clear answer: solar foods, made by turning renewable electricity directly into food.
This is already being done on a small scale. The big challenges are to make it efficient enough to compete with conventional foods on price, and delicious enough that people choose to buy it. When it comes to taste, perhaps the most promising approach is electro-ag, or growing plants via electricity instead of sunlight. In principle at least, all the fruits and veg we love – strawberries, avocados, olives, you name it – could be grown in the dark.
Why would we want to do that? Because farming is the most destructive of all human activities, driving the two major crises we face: global heating and biodiversity loss. And yes, I do mean all farming, including
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organic. Less-intensive forms of farming generally yield less food per land area, which ultimately means cutting down more forests somewhere in the world.
Every year, we have more mouths to feed. So, we'll need to grow more and more food for ourselves and the animals we eat, yet that's going to get harder as global heating drives more extreme weather. The danger is that worldwide yields could start to decline, as happened in Europe this year. That means even more land will have to be cleared for growing crops, resulting in even more greenhouse gas emissions.
In other words, we are likely to end up in a vicious cycle in which global heating driven partly by farming will hit food production ever harder, leading to ever higher farm emissions and yet more warming as we try to compensate for escalating food losses. That's a rather terrifying prospect.
What can we do about it? Some claim the answer is growing crops in closed environments under artificial lights, known as vertical farming. Unfortunately, it's a non-starter, as I reported back in 2015 – and as evidenced by company after company going bust.
The fundamental problem is that plants are terrible at turning sunlight into food. Typically, less than 1 per cent of the solar energy hitting a crop ends up in the food we eat. When sunlight is free, it doesn't matter if more than 99 per cent of it is wasted. But if you are paying for electricity for grow lights, it becomes a massive issue.
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There's also a land-use issue. Yes, layers of plants can be stacked up, but every hectare of growing area requires around 13 hectares of solar panels to power the lights, so overall land use per unit of food increases. This could be avoided by using nuclear power, say, but nuclear power is neither cheap nor going spare.
Hence the interest in turning air, water and electricity directly into food, to reduce the need for land by taking advantage of solar panels being more efficient than plants. Solar panels turn more than 20 per cent of the energy hitting them into electrical energy, and some experimental panels achieve more than double this.

GRAHAM HUGHES/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
The general idea is to convert electricity into a chemical that microbes can feed on, for instance by electrolysis water to produce hydrogen gas. This is what Solar Foods in Finland is doing. Its process relies on one of the many microbes that can use hydrogen as an energy source.
Solar Foods grows these bacteria in vats, also supplying $CO_{2}$ as a carbon source and ammonia as a nitrogen source, along with other essential nutrients. The idea is to use $CO_{2}$ from direct air capture and ammonia made from the hydrogen, making the process nearly carbon neutral if it's powered by solar or wind.
The bacteria are dried to make a yellow powder called Solein that is up to 80 per cent protein. It can be made into protein bars or drinks, or added to foods such as pastries and pasta to replace eggs. Products containing Solein are already available in the US and Singapore, and the company is hoping for approval in the European Union soon, says co-founder Pasi Vainikka.
The company's small demonstration factory is working even better than expected, says Vainikka. "It has scaled really well. It's almost five times more productive than we thought early on." Solar Foods now aims to build a second factory with a capacity of 6400 tonnes a year. It wants to get the cost of making Solein down to a few dollars per kilogram and hopes to sell it for more than twice that, helped by recent jumps in the market prices of protein.
Other start-ups, including Jooules, Air Protein and Aerbio, also aim to produce proteins from microbes fed on gases.
There's no reason to doubt that gas fermentation, as this process is known, can be scaled up hugely – because it already has been. Between 1999 and 2005, a Norwegian company called Norferm made 110,000 tonnes of microbial protein from methane, for fish food. Norferm halted production because it wasn't profitable, but with protein prices rising, several firms are now making microbial proteins this way for use as animal feed. US firm Calysta has built a 20,000-tonne-a-year factory in China, for instance, while Unibio in Denmark is constructing a 50,000-tonne-a-year plant in Saudi Arabia.
The big “but” here is that these companies are using methane from fossil fuel sources. This does have some advantages – such as requiring much less land than, say, growing soya – but all the
fossil carbon ends up in the atmosphere. The issue is that making hydrogen, methane and ammonia from renewable energy costs more, for now at least, so there's little incentive to go green – though Calysta tells me it is looking at using biogas instead.
Gas fermentation isn't the only approach to making food from air. Some researchers think there is a better way. "Hydrogen hardly dissolves at all in water, so it is very difficult for microorganisms to get hold of," says Remko Boom at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. This limits growth, says Boom. Methane is only a bit more soluble. The alternative is to turn $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ into simple carbon compounds that are highly soluble, such as acetate. It takes more energy to produce acetate, but the idea is that this is compensated for by faster growth.
Boom is part of the Acetate Consortium, a project that has shown that some microbes can be grown on acetate. “In principle, we can go to quite large scales,” he says. “So, it could be a significant source of proteins over the world,
"If we can make foods from electricity and air, it will help to limit global heating, protect wildlife and feed the world"
and that would mean that we can decouple this type of food production from the use of land."
The challenge is to turn what emerges from bioreactors into appealing foods, he says. There are two broad routes. One is to use the microbes as a food ingredient with minimal processing, as Solar Foods is doing. Here, the Acetate Consortium has focused on microbes already approved for food use, such as yeast, thus

avoiding the often slow process of getting novel foods approved. (Solar Foods has been waiting five years for approval in the EU.)
The other is to use genetically modified microbes to produce specific proteins, such as the casein proteins found in cheese. Purifying proteins is much more expensive than using entire cells, says Boom, so this approach would work only for high-value products.
There's no reason why microbes couldn't produce carbohydrates as well, he says. "However, we don't expect a shortage of carbohydrates, while we do expect a shortage in protein."
The big question, however, is whether consumers will embrace microbial foods. Even if they do, people won't want to live on microbes alone.
This is where electro-ag could come in. The idea is to grow plants on acetate instead of sunlight.
In 2022, a team including Robert Jinkerson at the University of California, Riverside, made acetate from $CO_{2}$ via electrolysis and used the acetate to grow yeast, mushrooms and algae. Turning sunlight into acetate and then into yeast was almost 18 times as efficient as standard farming, the team calculated. For algae, it was nearly four times as efficient. These
Protein-rich powder made from bacteria, like Solein, could be added to foods
are gigantic leaps in efficiency.
The team envisages growing crops in buildings covered in solar panels. The electricity generated would be used to make acetate on-site that would be supplied to the plants in the dark below via their roots. With technological improvements, the efficiency of plant production could be boosted tenfold, Jinkerson and his colleagues estimated in a 2024 follow-up paper.
If so, we could grow around 10 times as much food per land area, freeing up huge tracts for rewilding. Growing food in this way would also help prevent food shocks caused by extreme weather and allow food to be produced anywhere. What's more, growing food in closed systems can largely prevent pest and disease outbreaks, which reduce yields worldwide.
This all sounds great, but, of course, it isn't so simple. The first obstacle is that plants cannot simply be fed acetate – using it efficiently requires a chemical pathway active only in seedlings. Jinkerson's team is now genetically modifying plants to do this.
There's no fundamental reason to think this couldn't be done. After all, some plants already grow in the dark – many parasitic plants rely entirely on nutrients stolen from other plants. Plants also put a lot of energy into growing structures like stems and leaves that we often don't eat. Ideally, then, we would also modify these plants to get rid of superfluous structures. Again, parasitic plants such as the giant-flowered Rafflesia, which has no roots or leaves, show what is possible.
Another way to go would be to grow plant cells on acetate, rather than entire plants or microbes.
SOLARFOODS
A number of companies are working on making food by growing plant cells in vats. For instance, last year I reported on efforts to make chocolate this way. I tried some of it, too, and it was pretty good.
At present, these cells are grown in culture mediums containing things like sugars derived from conventionally grown foods, so they still have a significant environmental footprint. Deriving the culture medium entirely from renewable energy would change this. It seems to me that a huge array of foods could be made this way, from flour to guacamole.
Yet another option is to cut out living cells altogether. A US start-up called Savor is converting syngas – a fossil fuel-derived mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide – into edible fats to create a butter-like product. The hydrogen and carbon monoxide could be made by renewable electricity instead.
All these different approaches may have a part to play. “We will probably not rely on one particular route,” says Boom.
No one is expecting food made from air and electricity to replace conventional crops and livestock farms anytime soon, not least because it would require more renewable electricity than we currently generate. But if we can make a decent proportion of food this way in the coming decades, it will make a huge difference, helping to limit global heating, protect wildlife and feed the world.
This is why governments should be doing more to encourage solar foods, from funding research to easing regulatory obstacles and helping make them competitive. As individuals, we can all help too by buying them. Perhaps when people get together to celebrate New Scientist's 140th anniversary, everything they eat and drink will have come from thin air.
WHAT are the chances that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity? Until recently, this wasn't a question that most people worried about, yet in recent weeks, the discussion has broken through to the mainstream. You may have seen headlines saying there is a greater than 10 per cent chance that AI could kill all humans, but what does that actually mean?
The honest answer is: very little. No one can produce a scientifically meaningful probability of an AI apocalypse – what people in AI circles call p(doom) – because it isn't a scientific question. That is demonstrated by the fact that leading commentators in the field give numbers for p(doom) from 0 to more than 95 per cent – covering the full probability spectrum tells us nothing.
Does that mean you shouldn't worry about AI taking over the world? I can't answer that question, because it depends on a number we have no reasonable way to derive. What I can do is compare it with other scenarios. Let's start with an easy one: what is the chance of you losing the lottery?
First, as with any question of probability, we have to make some assumptions. I will assume you have actually bought a ticket and that you are playing the UK National Lottery. The odds of winning any prize, from a free play up to the jackpot, are about 1 in 4.9, or 20.4 per cent. That means your odds of losing are 79.6 per cent, which is how the lottery makes money – most players lose.
Let's move to something more serious: what are your odds of dying in a road-traffic collision? According to the World Health Organization,
"Headlines say there is a greater than 10 per cent chance that AI could kill all humans, but what does that actually mean?"
slightly more than 1 million people die in road-traffic collisions each year, so the odds of this happening to you are around 1 million divided by 8 billion, or roughly 0.01 per cent.
That is wrong, of course. The odds for you personally are highly dependent on many factors, including where you live, but we can use the figure as a ballpark. What matters is that the odds are low enough that we don't worry about it all the time, but high enough that we take some precautions to mitigate against the possibility, from wearing seatbelts to looking both ways when we cross the road.
These examples are about individual risks, but an AI apocalypse would happen to all of us. Take climate change, perhaps the most pressing global risk. This is a far more complicated threat to assign a probability to for a few reasons. Unlike losing the lottery or being killed in a road-traffic collision, climate change isn't a binary outcome, but a continuum of warming above pre-industrial levels. It also cannot be calculated from known statistics, because we have only one world and the outcome lies in the future. Finally, the amount of global warming we will experience in 2100 depends on what we do between now and then.
None of this means we can't assess the risk scientifically, however. Using extensively tested climate models, we can produce many "parallel worlds" in order to calculate statistics that show us how different climate policies are likely to result in different outcomes.
According to the latest UN Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report, published last year, under current policies, there is a 100 per cent chance of exceeding 1.5°C of warming this century, a 92 per cent chance of exceeding 2°C and a 20 per cent chance of exceeding 3°C. These figures also come with error bars, but broadly give you a picture of where we are heading. On the strongest assumptions of climate action, the chances of exceeding 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C fall to 79 per cent, 22 per cent and 0 per cent, respectively. Clearly, these are actions worth taking.
Climate change is a relatively slow risk, however, compared with an AI suddenly wiping out the world. A better comparison might be an asteroid strike. We know that asteroid apocalypses can happen –
IAN DAVIDSON/SOPA IMAGES/SHUTTERSTOCK

CLIVE MASON/GETTY IMAGES

Al probably isn't coming for you and probably isn't going to look like the Terminator
just ask the dinosaurs – but what are the risks? To understand that, we need to know a few things: how many asteroids there are, the chance that one impacts Earth and the damage it could cause.
Fortunately, these numbers are all very well quantified. As you might expect, larger asteroids are both easier to spot and more deadly. According to NASA, we have found more than 90 per cent of all asteroids above 1-kilometre wide.
What's more, we are able to predict their future positions with high accuracy, so we know there is either no or an extremely low chance of one hitting Earth within the next century. Chicxulub, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, was about 10 kilometres wide, so the fact that we are essentially safe from anything an order of magnitude smaller and up is good news. The latest estimates suggest that an impact by an object 1 kilometre or larger happens only once every 600,000 years or so.
That isn't to say we are completely safe from asteroids, because there are many more smaller asteroids and so the chances of them hitting are higher. An important size threshold is
140 metres, often dubbed a "city killer". We haven't found all of these, but we are working on it, and the latest estimates suggest asteroids above this size hit around every 20,000 years.
In some sense, asteroids are reassuring, because we can see them coming, but what about the threat of a deadly virus? As we all know too well from our experiences of the covid-19 pandemic, a virus spreading around the world has the potential to appear from nowhere and upend life as we know it. But can we predict the chances of this happening scientifically?
---
Looking at the statistics, in roughly the past century, the largest pandemic was the 1918 flu, which killed an estimated 50 million people. The HIV pandemic, which began in the 1980s and is still ongoing, has killed more than 40 million people. Estimates for deaths from covid-19 vary, depending on how figures are counted, but the WHO gives a figure of over 7 million. Various other flu pandemics and regional infectious disease epidemics have killed smaller numbers of people, from hundreds to thousands to millions.
In other words, we should expect the most severe events to happen less frequently, and less severe events to happen more often. This is exactly the same pattern as the asteroid risk. Unlike asteroids, pandemics are much harder to observe before they strike, so their risk estimation is more like climate change, using models to examine a range of scenarios. While estimates vary, a generally accepted figure is that there is a 2 to 3 per cent chance of a covid-19-level pandemic every year, meaning we should expect one every 33 to 50 years.
What I hope I have illustrated is that estimating the probability of an AI apocalypse is unlike any of the other scenarios I have discussed. Whether it is the lottery, a deadly traffic collision or an asteroid strike, we can apply statistics and scientific reasoning to answering the question. For p(doom), there is no scientific framework.
Where does that leave us?
On an individual level, you should stop listening to the numbers being thrown about until they have serious backing – something that AI researchers should be working on constructing, rather than merely prophesying. For policy-makers – who must ideally plan for all scenarios that could lead to harm, even in the face of uncertainty – I would suggest considering regulation, but not rushing to action.
Ultimately though, your risk perception will come down to personal preference. For example, I disagree with Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, who recently said there was a 0 per cent chance of an AI apocalypse by 2030. I would put the figure at some number, likely to be small, but greater than zero, simply because I don't think it is ruled out by the laws of physics. Beyond that, I can't say anything stronger – but compared with risks such as climate change or the next global pandemic, it isn't something that keeps me up at night.

Jacob Aron is a senior editor at New Scientist, writing about maths, physics and technology
---
What I'm reading Beyond the Aquila Rift, a collection of short stories from British sci-fi master Alastair Reynolds. Great for dipping in and out of
What I'm watching
ER. Having never seen it before, it has become a daily binge-watch and a pleasure
What I'm working on Thinking about what on earth is going to happen next with AI



J Henry Fair
Bruce Museum
DO YOU have any idea what you're looking at in this image? It might look completely abstract at first glance, but this is, in fact, an aerial photo. The white cobwebby-looking bits are bubbles, the green is algae and the straight lines are the edges of tanks.
This is the Kasslerfeld sewage-treatment plant in Duisburg, Germany, next to the Rhine river, which treats waste water from nearby businesses and homes.
“This is part of my series which illustrates environmental damage in a creative way to engage viewers,” says photographer and environmental activist J Henry Fair.
While waste-water plants help minimise the human impact on rivers, Fair points out that they don't remove all pollutants. For instance, they don't filter out all microplastics. We all have microplastics in our bodies, Fair says, but the ramifications of that aren't understood.
He has been using small aircraft to document the impact of human activity on the landscape, with the aerial view often revealing much that can't be seen from the ground. This photograph is from a new exhibition at the Bruce Museum in Greenwich, Connecticut, A Great Breach in Nature: Aerial photography by J Henry Fair.
“I first photographed it in passing, then the curators became excited about it, so I went back to reshoot it. But then could not find it. So we flew all around Duisburg, and finally saw it as we were giving up the search,” said Fair in commentary accompanying the photo on his website.
The exhibition runs until 7 February, 2027.
Michael Le Page

Book
Hawking
Graham Farmelo
John Murray (UK);
Bantam (US, out 24 November)
IS THERE anything new left to say about Stephen Hawking? The world-famous physicist, who died in 2018, has been the subject of multiple books, documentaries and films, as well as penning dozens of his own tomes. In Hawking by Graham Farmelo, we now have the first authorised biography, and with it access to previously unpublished material from the Hawking family and others. Despite this, his family life is probably the least interesting part of the book – the really compelling stuff is in reassessing his later life.
Part of this is down to a problem common to almost all biographies: people and their families don't tend to do anything interesting before they become famous for the thing you actually want to read about. The first five of 17 chapters cover Hawking's life in extensive detail, thanks to detailed documents written by his parents Frank and Isabel, including an unpublished autobiography by the former. But what do we actually learn?
Unsurprisingly for someone born in 1942, Hawking had a fairly typical middle-class post-war childhood. His father enjoyed home improvement projects and sharing a telescope with Hawking, while his mother was in charge of the bulk of the childcare. The family had a near-miss with a Nazi V1 flying bomb. They grew their own vegetables to supplement meagre rations. All of this is documented and footnoted by Farmelo's impressive scholarship, and a figure like Hawking is certainly worthy of such historical investigation, but a thrilling read it is not.

Material on Hawking's diagnosis with motor neuron disease and his family's reaction to the news that he would likely be dead within a decade unsurprisingly pulls much harder on the heartstrings, as does his growing romance and eventual marriage to his first wife, Jane.
"As the decades wore on, Hawking's scientific ideas were increasingly pedestrian or indeed flat-out wrong"
It is only around a quarter of the way into the book, when Hawking
But yet again, I couldn't help feel that all of this is well-trodden ground, particularly from Jane's autobiography and the film it spawned, The Theory of Everything, in which Hawking is played by Eddie Redmayne.
ELEANORBENTALL/CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES
becomes a jobbing scientist, that my interest began to pick up. The physics landscape of the late 1960s and early 70s was very different to what it is today, and Farmelo does a fantastic job of immersing you in this world.
Black holes, which while still puzzling to us today are mostly uncontroversial, were thought of by many as “the cosmic counterpart of the Loch Ness Monster”, Farmelo writes – meaning Hawking was really sticking his neck out in working on them.
It is here that a distasteful recurring thread first emerges – Hawking's frequent oversight in acknowledging collaborators. At multiple times during his work in the 1970s, Hawking published papers without naming researchers who, under typical scientific norms, should have been co-authors. Farmelo highlights this, but doesn't seek to examine the psychology behind it, despite the fact there
The late Stephen Hawking taught and researched at the University of Cambridge
is a clear throughline with the fame and adoration Hawking sought and enjoyed in later life.
Still, the fact that Farmelo resurfaces these forgotten disputes, once papered over in Hawking's route to fame, as part of an authorised biography should be applauded.
Farmelo's isn't the first revisionist take on Hawking – Charles Seife got there first in 2021 with Hawking Hawking, a book that examined the making of his celebrity and failed to attract a UK publisher, perhaps because it was felt too controversial in his home country. As Hawking's life passes further into history, I imagine we can expect more.
Certainly, Hawking had some truly ground-breaking ideas about black holes in the 1970s, most notably Hawking radiation, the idea that black holes can actually emit particles and eventually even evaporate. We are still yet to detect Hawking radiation, despite most physicists believing that it exists, which is why he never won a Nobel prize – something that Farmelo explains was clearly a sore spot for Hawking.
But after that, when he catapulted to fame with the famously unreadable A Brief History of Time? As the decades wore on, Hawking's scientific ideas were increasingly pedestrian or indeed flat-out wrong.
As Farmelo points out, he frequently lost scientific bets, most strikingly that the Higgs boson didn't exist – a view Hawking advanced when he appeared as himself on The Big Bang Theory in an episode that aired just months before the particle was actually discovered.
Like many of his contemporaries in the 1990s and early 2000s, Hawking was enamoured with string theory and its variant M-theory, a framework for understanding the universe that increasingly appears today to be a dead end.
My own experience of reporting on Hawking's research near the end of his life bears this out – he would frequently come out with grabby-sounding headlines, but physicists would politely tell me off the record that they didn't feel the work was particularly new or detailed enough.
Farmelo goes some way to acknowledging this in his epilogue, but doesn't dwell on why Hawking worked in this way. I think it is probably time we did. Was it down to a lack of original ideas, his penchant for fame-seeking or his difficulties in communicating as his condition worsened, making it harder for him to publish traditional scientific papers? My honest answer, though it feels impolite to say so, is probably all three.
Where does that leave Hawking, rather than Hawking? If you have already followed his life in detail, I'm not sure you have much to gain from this book. If you only know Hawking as a celebrity scientist, Farmelo's book gets you closer to the man underneath, though I would argue Seife did it better. If it is 2042 and you're writing a centenary retrospective of Hawking's life, Farmelo's scholarship is a fantastic place to start – but I'm hoping that between now and then we can continue to decipher Hawking. When speaking of a man who famously held a party for time travellers (an incident strangely not mentioned in the book), I see no reason to constrain my recommendation to the present.
A haunting space animation is a sci-fi challenge to our times, finds Davide Abbatescianni

Film Moonfish Daniel Zvereff Pending release
IN THE song Space Oddity, David Bowie's Major Tom drifts beyond the reach of Ground Control, poised between tech and terror. The protagonist in Daniel Zvereff's animation, Moonfish, occupies a similarly lonely orbit, but one that demolishes the fantasy of space travel, instead depicting work, radiation, quotas and the slow psychological erosion of being almost alone.
Cassius (Morgan Spector), a deep-space miner, is travelling with his companion Vesper (Lucy Liu) to an asteroid. Work is brutal: meet extraction quotas to earn passage home or stay, stranded. When Vesper dies in an accident, Cassius must complete the mission alone, with only her goldfish (below) and the unreliable contents of his mind for company.
Moonfish premiered at the Venice Biennale last month, and cost a mere €200,000 to make. Zvereff turns that constraint into an aesthetic: drawing in stark black and white, building from simple lines, using a boxy frame and sparse environments that
NEW EUROPE FILMS

make Cassius's universe feel both enormous and suffocating. What might have looked unfinished is the right visual language to express alienation, a man reduced to a few fragile marks against a void.
The scientific details of this world are left speculative; science ends up functioning as pressure. So, Cassius's body is another system to fail before the machinery does – prolonged exposure to radiation in space has consequences requiring medication to function. Asteroid mining isn't heroic exploration, but rather the economic logic of using vulnerable workers when tech costs more. This is one of the film's bleakest tropes – and one of its most plausible.
But its most compelling element is the bond Cassius develops with the fish, which, as grief and isolation set in, speaks in Vesper's voice. The exchanges become the film's philosophical core, touching on consciousness, memory, mortality and what distinguishes life from non-life. This could have tipped into whimsy, but Liu endows the fish with an eerie tenderness, while Spector makes Cassius's exhaustion feel physical.
Moonfish is ultimately less interested in whether humans mine asteroids than in who might, and under what terms. Its space setting amplifies existing concerns on Earth: precarious labour, dependence on tech, loneliness and the monetisation of endurance. Like Major Tom, Cassius drifts further from the systems supposed to keep him connected. The difference is that this Ground Control isn't merely distant; it is his employer.
New Scientist recommends

Jacklin Kwan
Features editor
London
When We Cease to Understand the World is a novella that explores what happens when science unravels its own core conceit: that we can understand reality.
Benjamín Labatut's characters are all real scientists, people who

push discovery so far that it can only become dangerous to them. And the picture he paints is ghastly: science will bring people to the point of real enlightenment, but that enlightenment is profoundly anti-human.
He takes impressively few liberties with discussions of science. I know, for instance, that mathematical visionary Alexander Grothendieck – a key character here – revolutionised algebraic geometry before becoming a recluse. I don't know whether his hermetic life was due to him glimpsing the "heart of the heart", the object at the deepest centre of maths. Labatut imagines this revelation as like confronting a beautiful, horrifying, many-eyed angel.
This book will haunt you.

Book
Anxious and Hairy
Judy Wearing
Icon Books
PICK up Judy Wearing's Anxious and Hairy, and you might well wonder at its length: how did she possibly fill 300 pages with... hair? It is a credit to her diligent research, infectious curiosity and personable voice that, on finishing this exhaustive exploration into what the subtitle calls the “evolution and culture of human hair”, I was struck by how much I'd taken for granted.

MARTIN PARR/MAGNUM PHOTOS
From the start, Wearing sets out to win over readers who might be sceptical, taking on the broad (and, arguably, often sexist) sidelining of hair to reveal a “biological wonder” touching “on virtually every aspect of humanity”. Her own fascination dates back to her postgraduate studies at the University of Oxford, and Anxious and Hairy builds on her research into mating behaviour, especially “adaptive benefits of human hair patches”.
Why did we evolve to have tufts in some places, but not others? Even now, research remains limited. As Wearing points out: "Oddly, humans have paid more attention to the traits involved in the mating of mites and birds than the plumage of our own species."
The earliest fossil evidence of hair, she writes, dates back about 245 million years to cynodonts: warm-blooded, reptilian and the ancestors of mammals. They developed fur for insulation, but some hair follicles continued to evolve to produce milk and body odour. Homo sapiens shed their fur coats over time, but not as decisively as it seemed. The so-called naked ape, in fact, has the same number of follicles as our primate relatives, everywhere except on the soles of our feet and palms of our hands; but they produce mostly thin, fine “vellus” hairs.
The thicker, more mature hairs evolved, through sexual selection, to grow in specific locations for highly varied purposes. The hair on our head helps to regulate temperature while also offering
"At Oxford, Wearing ‘ambushed’ her peers with requests for samples from their ‘interesting bits’"

JUDY WEARING
sun protection, explaining the diversity in density, colour and curl. Curly hair, for example, blocks more solar radiation while keeping the head cooler. In men, this balance also involves facial hair, with Wearing exploring the links between bushy beards – which would have dissuaded sexual rivals – and balding.
The science behind our other furry patches is more speculative. Underarm hair might have evolved to broadcast our particular chemical blends, aiding social communication and helping to attract genetically suitable mates, she writes. As for pubic hair, Wearing's preferred hypothesis is that it evolved as a “cheating detector”, trapping fluids and odour, informing mate choice and communicating about sexual activity, though she stresses this is untested.
Even with all the unknowns, Wearing's evolutionary lens makes hair unexpectedly interesting. Culture adds an equally dense layer – and accounts for the titular “anxious”. Having too much hair in the wrong places, or not enough in the right ones,
From how you style your locks to their texture, hair is a complex business
is associated with depression, anxiety and lower quality of life.
Hair styling has been a form of self-expression since the earliest societies, and across the classes. Rameses II, one of ancient Egypt's most renowned pharaohs, used henna to hide greys. And the remains of a woman buried in the 14th century BC showed evidence of 70 coloured extensions.
Even deciding to wear hair up or down is socially mediated, and often political. Women's flowing tresses convey feminine sexuality but may be covered, bound or shorn as a means of control. Hair has also literally been a matter of life and death, writes Wearing. Natural variations, a function of genetics and geography, were used to justify racialised prejudice, abuse and enslavement. Hair texture, an official classification criteria in apartheid South Africa, determined rights and freedoms.
Anxious and Hairy reflects Wearing's careful, wide-ranging research, but the narrative is powered by her enthusiasm for hair and on-the-ground reporting. At Oxford, she made a name for herself, “ambushing” her peers with requests for samples from their “interesting bits”. Later, her quest takes her from a high-end Paris salon to Detroit for a beard and mustache convention.
She discovers that what is signified by our “patches of hair” continues to evolve. Botox, which limits eyebrow movement, may affect our ability to communicate and empathise. Overall, Wearing more than delivers on her promise to transform how we see hair.
Elle Hunt is a writer based in Norwich, UK
The September read for the New Scientist Book Club was a challenging trip to the edges of space-time – but one that most members enjoyed, says Alison Flood

Alison Flood is head of books and culture at New Scientist, and runs the monthly New Scientist Book Club

Book
The Edge of Space-time
Chanda Prescod-Weinstein

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein
THE New Scientist Book Club has been testing its collective brain power in September with Chanda Prescod-Weinstein's The Edge of Space-Time. Subtitled “particles, poetry and the cosmic dream boogie”, this sees the New Scientist columnist and theoretical physicist set out to explain our universe, from the quantum to the inner workings of black holes.
That's a lot to get through, but as Chanda writes in her book, it is worth the effort: "We should bother with physics because it is, in part, how we as a species learn to use our minds." She went further in an exclusive essay for book club members, challenging us to get to grips with the quantum nature of space-time. "Spending time with what feels strange about physics can help prepare us to better reckon with difficult political questions," she wrote. "Given the crises we face – genocides, climate change, attacks on transgender people – we need our critical faculties now more than ever."
Her book, as member Dee55 put it, is a “wild ride”, in terms of both the physics and the in-depth conversation that members have been having about the book over on our Discord channel.
I really enjoyed it. Thanks to Chanda's friendly, encouraging and clear writing, I emerged at the end a little more knowledgeable about physics. I liked how she slipped in references to literature and popular culture to help make her points, as well as how she told us firmly: “This is supposed to be fun, and there is no test at the end.” She reiterated this in our chat: “[Part] of welcoming people into the material is saying, this isn’t something that only... a lone genius can think about. You’re
"We should bother with physics because it is, in part, how we as a species learn to use our minds"
entitled to this as well. This is your universe, too."
Many book club members were also enamoured. Jodie has been “enjoying it a lot, even if it does make my head ache at times” – I think that’s fair, Jodie! – while Dee55 found Chanda’s explanations mind-expanding: “I have [made] periodic attempts to understand Quantum Stuff and always come away fairly befuddled but also intrigued – and this time feels a little different, as if I am not exactly grasping something but perhaps catching fleeting glimpses of it.”
"I've really enjoyed The Edge of Space-time," wrote DavidCl. "It's like sitting down and spending time with a good friend who is way cleverer and more intelligent than I am while she tries to explain what it is she does, why she does it and what drives her onwards."
This book is packed with literary allusions, and with Chanda's strongly expressed political perspectives – not everyone appreciated this. Katita2026 found that Chanda's politics and her subjective takes intruded on the physics a little too much: "Dr. Prescod-Weinstein is an incredible storyteller... [but] as much as I'm enjoying the read, I find myself struggling when she tries to make the physics fit her politics."
This was a question picked over with great sensitivity by book club members. “I do agree that some of the connections are bit forced, but I think the author is trying to show not only how physics says that the universe is, but also how she from a particular background visualises that,” wrote Alan\_P.
All in all, I think this was a (challenging) hit with book club members – on to the next one.
You can find Chanda Prescod-Weinstein's essay and interview at newscientist.com/bookclubextras
---

Exit Party
Emily St. John Mandel
In October, the New Scientist Book Club is embarking on the latest novel from one of speculative fiction's biggest names: Emily St. John Mandel.
The author of flu-
pandemic novel Station
Eleven tackles quantum entanglement and parallel worlds in her latest book, Exit Party, in which our protagonists Ari and Gloria attend a party where some mysterious doppelgangers seem to be appearing.
Book club members can enjoy an extract from the novel's start, which will be available at newscientist. com/bookclubextras from
2 October, and a review from our sci-fi columnist Emily H. Wilson – she calls the book "as elegant and brilliantly executed as fans have grown to expect". There will also be an interview with St. John

Mandel later this month.
You can join the discussion with our Discord community online at bit.ly/4ewuwyo – and sign up to read along with us, if you haven't yet.
Happy reading!
Join New Scientist's free book club
Sign up at newscientist.com/bookclub

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19 September, p 7
From Alistair Fraser,
Whanganui, New Zealand
Terence Tao makes a persuasive case that mathematics is about more than just producing answers: discoveries must be understood, explained and incorporated into a wider body of knowledge. But I wonder whether his concern that AI may produce mathematics faster than mathematicians can absorb it contains an assumption worth questioning.
Why should the future rate of mathematical discovery be limited by the rate at which humans have traditionally been able to process it? If AI becomes capable not only of discovering mathematics, but also of verifying, organising, connecting and explaining it, then human comprehension needn't disappear – but it may cease to be the bottleneck.
Consequently, rather than diminishing, the role of mathematicians could instead shift towards deciding which questions matter, interrogating machine-generated knowledge, recognising significance and determining where discoveries should lead. The greater danger may not be that AI produces mathematics too quickly, but that we try to accommodate a fundamentally new capability within structures developed for an age when human intellectual labour was scarce.
---
5 September, p 20
From Jon Arch, Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, UK
Michael Le Page's article about drugs that prevent muscle loss reminds me of the medication clenbuterol. It is used to treat asthma, but also causes a rapid, remarkable increase in skeletal muscle mass in rats and mice.
Unsurprisingly, some years after this was first discovered, several weightlifters suddenly found that they needed clenbuterol to treat their asthma. It is now banned for International Olympic Committee-tested athletes. Will the same fate await myostatin and activin antagonists?
---
Letters, 19 September
From Eric Kvaalen,
Les Essarts-le-Roi, France
Bryn Glover is concerned that carbon-14 dating may be inaccurate because the amount of this isotope in the air varies, particularly after intense solar storms. He needn't worry: it has long been known that the amount varies, and old wood is exactly the way we get out of this problem.
Over the past several decades, researchers have created a calibration curve for carbon-14 dating by looking at the pattern of thick and thin tree rings in old wood and thereby identifying when the tree lived. Then, by measuring the carbon-14, the calibration is achieved and can be used for other organic material.
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12 September, p 10
From Jane Giffould,
Halstead, Essex, UK
I was delighted to read that
psilocybin, the psychedelic
compound in magic mushrooms,
may one day alleviate the
numbness and tingling
experienced in peripheral
neuropathy, which I have had
for the past nine years as a result
of chemotherapy. This side effect has been growing for me, while the drugs that are meant to help clear it have had zero effect. If psilocybin works, then bring it on. I just hope it doesn't interact with the countless other chemo-related drugs to generate even more side effects.
---
19 September, p 12
From Ahmad Aljesirawi,
Amman, Jordan
The finding that immune cells may kick-start contractions in childbirth is fascinating. I wonder whether there could be another connection worth investigating.
Research on human attraction has suggested that body odour may sometimes influence mate preference, including possible preferences related to differences in certain immune system genes. In simple terms, we may sometimes be attracted to partners whose immune-genetic profile differs from our own.
Could these immune differences between the mother and father – and therefore between the mother and fetus – have any relationship to the immune signalling described in this new research? For example, could recognition of fetal or paternal antigens contribute, directly or indirectly, to the activation or recruitment of maternal immune cells in the uterus near the end of pregnancy? Could this influence cytokine or chemokine signalling, macrophage activity or the mitochondrial transfer to uterine muscle cells described in the study?
I am not suggesting that this is the established mechanism, but I think it raises an interesting question: could the immune
system differences that may play a role in mate attraction also have a later biological role in pregnancy and the initiation of labour?
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Letters, 12 September
From Greg Nuttgens, Porthcawl, Bridgend, UK Discussing the effects of flea treatments on the environment, Jens Christian Jensenius suggests that oral methods may not pass through the animal. But some of the chemicals used in worming treatments for sheep and cattle, which are similar to flea treatments, do pass through the gut. They can have a serious effect on dung beetles and other insects, which feed on and break down dung, reducing biodiversity and slowing down the incorporation of dung nutrients into the soil. These chemicals should be banned for both farm and domestic use.
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From Ulrich Seydel,
Melbourne, Australia
In the search for dark matter, aren't researchers putting the cart before the horse? We know dark matter has gravitational effects, but the rest is, to my knowledge at least, conjecture. Building hypotheses about dark matter and designing experiments based on those hasn't been very effective over the past few decades. Wouldn't it be more productive to stop guessing and continue observing with a wide-open mind?

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Send letters to letters@newscientist.com; see terms at newscientist.com/letters Letters sent to New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY will be delayed
Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity explains gravitational time dilation (12 September, p 22). 2.5 million animals were used in scientific research in the UK in 2025 (19 September, p 32).
THE odds of the bet Jonathan Oppenheim made in 2023 are generous, even at 5000 to 1. But if he wins, it could transform our view of the universe. The physicist is wagering that space-time, and therefore gravity, isn't governed by quantum theory. That swims firmly against mainstream physics, which says gravity must ultimately be quantum, like the rest of the fundamental forces – even if we can't currently work out how.
The wager is playful, but the question is serious, representing perhaps the most intractable puzzle in modern physics. And although Oppenheim is still out on a limb with his “post-quantum” theory of gravity, he is increasingly convinced his peers should take notice – not least because of the complexity of the alternatives. “There are all these people who think that we live in 11 dimensions and there are superstrings and space-time is emergent, looking at this theory and calling it radical,” he says. “But if you step away and think about it objectively, it’s sort of the opposite – it’s the most conservative theory you can have.”
That's not all. Accept the model's perhaps most controversial innovation, and Oppenheim's calculations show that it might elucidate another great mystery of modern physics: the nature of the invisible dark matter that seems to provide most of the gravitational oomph in the cosmos. Might he just be on to something?
For decades now, scientists have been trying to reconcile the two pillars of modern physics: quantum theory, which governs the behaviour of particles and forces on small scales, and Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which describes gravity and determines how the universe works on the largest scales. Each
of these pillars has been extensively stress-tested and stood strong. Yet, according to our current understanding, the two are fundamentally incompatible.
Quantum theory explains the workings of three fundamental forces – electromagnetism and the strong and weak nuclear forces – through the exchange of quantum particles that bind matter together in different ways. But according to general relativity, massive objects generate gravity not by exchanging quantum particles, but by warping space and time around them, causing them to “fall in” towards each other.
Each theory works spectacularly well in its domain: quantum forces explain how the matter that makes up the chair we are sitting on holds together; gravity explains why our bodies fall to Earth with a bump if we miss the chair when we try to sit. But this coexistence breaks down where large scales meet small ones: when quantum particles cross over the event horizon of a massive black hole, for instance, or in the very first instants of the big bang, when our known universe began as a tiny pinprick of mass and energy.
Bringing gravity into the quantum fold has long proved tricky, but a radical approach could be the answer, discovers Leah Crane
The vast majority of physicists think that the most likely solution will be some form of quantum gravity, in which gravity is built out of tiny quantum pieces like the other forces. At extraordinarily small scales, the smoothly warping space-time of Einstein's theory would break down and pixelate, like an image zoomed in too far.
There are many different ways to quantise


gravity and space-time. Perhaps the best known is string theory, which proposes the existence of tiny, curled-up extra dimensions. Another favoured contender, loop quantum gravity, depicts a smooth space-time as emerging from a deeper fundamental network of geometric “grains”.
Oppenheim, a physicist at University College London, isn't sold on any of this. "In quantum gravity, the notion that gravity is describable in terms of space-time breaks down, but still everyone believes it's quantum rather than a theory of space-time," he says. He thinks that, if any successor theory is to reproduce the successes of general relativity, it's crucial it should maintain that theory's picture of gravity as a force acting between masses in a continuous, indivisible space-time. Post-quantum gravity does just that. "If you believe that, fundamentally, gravity is a theory of space-time, this is the theory for you," says Oppenheim.
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The model and its underlying mathematics are complex, but its goal is simple: start with what we know for sure about the various quantum fields, don't quantise space-time and then see what happens. After years of painstaking work, Oppenheim has found that it actually seems to describe reality surprisingly well, so far. Crucially, gravity matches with quantum mechanics on small scales and behaves as general relativity predicts at larger ones.
In his latest paper, published in July, Oppenheim and Zachary Weller-Davies at the Perimeter Institute in Canada found that certain space-time symmetries that are crucial features of general relativity can also be applied to post-quantum gravity.
This comes at a price, however. If Oppenheim's model is to fit with quantum mechanics, it must adopt certain features of it. In particular, it must allow all objects to be in a superposition of two states at once, resolving to a single state only when the quantum wave functions that describe them “collapse” on measurement.
These states include the position of the object – but herein lies the difficulty. If an object in two positions at once produces a gravitational pull from both, this would indicate that gravity is fundamentally quantum. Yet if only one position creates a pull, this would indicate that gravity “knows” which position the object will end up at once its wave function collapses. That would violate the uncertainty principle, a key and broadly
SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/ALAMY

General relativity says that gravity springs from the way mass deforms space-time
accepted precept of quantum mechanics.
The only way to resolve this, according to Oppenheim, is to introduce a degree of randomness in the form of fluctuations in the coordinates of space-time. This effect is itself small, but its consequences are significant: it would mean that, at least on very small scales, both space and time are unpredictable. The ticks of a clock, for example, would no longer be at exactly equal intervals, but wobble slightly. It is a glitch, if you will, in space-time.
Messing with the nature of time in particular isn't something to do lightly. "When we describe a system, we describe how it evolves in time, so the nature of time is a big question," says Oppenheim. Time becoming random, even in a small way, makes it very difficult to work out how we should describe systems evolving – potentially throwing a wrench into the workings of physics itself.
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The fact that this randomness doesn't have a known physical source troubles some researchers. “I think he's sort of going around the main thing, which is an explanation of why it is [random],” says Ivette Fuentes at the University of Southampton in the UK.
Oppenheim actually agrees. “I don’t like the fact that there are these unpredictable fluctuations,” he says. “It conflicts with the idea that everything should have a cause and we should be able to physically describe the world.” But something has to give if we are to reconcile quantum mechanics and gravity, he says. “We’ve tried all the easier approaches, and nothing has worked out, so there is a price we have to pay.”
There might be reasons not to discount the existence of the fluctuations. One comes in the shape of a foundational postulate of quantum mechanics known as the Born rule. This is a formula that gives the probability of obtaining a particular value for a quantum system's state when measuring it, and it is central to making the mathematics of wave function collapse work. The rule has held up to a century of scrutiny, but we still don't know where it comes from. In Oppenheim's model, it pops out as soon as the fluctuations in time are introduced, even though it wasn't included as a premise of the model.
What's more, in work published this May, Oppenheim and his colleagues found that post-quantum gravity can reproduce some of the gravitational effects currently attributed to dark matter. Observations suggest that dark matter outweighs normal visible matter in the cosmos by 5 parts to 1 – but we have no clue what it consists of.
“Phantom” dark matter caused by space-time fluctuations might sidestep this massive problem. This part of the model is still in its infancy, says Oppenheim: “We know that there’s an effect that looks like dark matter, but we don’t know if it’s big enough to explain anything or if it has the right properties.” He is now working to nail down the possible connection in more detail.
His peers remain largely unmoved. Carlo Rovelli at Aix-Marseille University in France is one of the originators and leading proponents of loop quantum gravity. Along with string theorist Geoff Penington at the University of California, Berkeley, he struck the bet with Oppenheim back in 2023. The exact terms are that, if gravity is proved to be quantised, Oppenheim has to buy Rovelli and Penington something worth 20p; if it is proved to be not quantised, they are on the hook for an item worth £1000.
Rovelli says the model violates both quantum mechanics and general relativity. "Why should progress be walking back on what we have understood?" he says. "It is like proposing theories in which the Earth does not rotate around the sun."
Not so, says Oppenheim. The model fits perfectly well within general relativity and, by proposing a physical origin for the Born rule, provides a necessary update to quantum mechanics. “It’s not that it breaks quantum mechanics; it actually solves one of the vexing issues that has plagued quantum mechanics since its inception,” he says.
A third view is that you simply can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. "When you quantise gravity, and you quantise space-time, you're also breaking general relativity," says Fuentes. "I think you have to break both relativity and quantum mechanics to unify them."
Reality will ultimately be the decider. There aren't that many models of non-quantised gravity, and the selection is even sparser if you get rid of those that aren't testable. That makes Oppenheim's theory noteworthy, says Daniel Carney at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California: he likes that there are ways to check its predictions. "This model, in my mind, is mostly useful as a test case – it says, what if we're wrong? Yeah, gravity is probably quantised like electromagnetism, but what else could happen is a shockingly difficult question to answer," says Carney. "For that, it's incredibly valuable."
Already, observations are placing some constraints on the model. For example, if it is correct, there should be random gravitational waves with a particular range of frequencies and strengths that permeate the entire universe, emanating from random space-time fluctuations early in cosmic history. Gravitational wave observatories, such as the US-based Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory, measure ripples in spacetime caused by the movements of highly massive objects such as black holes, and have also begun to make measurements of this weaker “stochastic gravitational wave background”.

THE VIRGO COLLABORATION/CCO 1.0
Results so far have greatly constricted this background signal's possible properties, likewise constricting the possibilities for post-quantum gravity. Meanwhile, laboratory experiments using ultracold atoms to measure gravity are providing constraints to the model at smaller scales. "There's not a lot of wiggle room, not a lot of ways to hide if there are problems with it," says Oppenheim.
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Ultimately, what's needed are more direct experimental tests – and recent improvements in theory and quantum sensing technologies mean they could be on the cards. The first such test would be to place a tiny mass, such as a nanoscale crystal, into a quantum superposition of two locations at once. Researchers would then try to entangle it with another crystal so that measuring the position of one instantaneously affects the result of measuring the other. Entanglement is a purely quantum effect, and so if gravity isn't quantum, it would disrupt any entanglement between the two masses. Measuring any entanglement would immediately rule out post-quantum gravity, along with all other classical models of gravity.
A second test is to subject the superpositioned mass to a gravitational field and measure its response many times in a row. If gravity is quantum, the measurement should be about the same each time. If it is
The Virgo
gravitational wave
detector measures
ripples in space-time



Jonathan Oppenheim (left) and Sougato Bose examine an experiment (below) that could help test post-quantum gravity
post-quantum, the tiny fluctuations in space-time should create inconsistencies between different runs of the experiment.
The same set-up can also be used to measure how long such a superposition lasts. “If classical gravity is coming from a quantum object, that really spoils the superposition of the mass in two places at once,” says experimentalist Sougato Bose, also at University College London – the mass will quickly collapse to a single location. Carney compares it to Schrödinger’s cat, the classic thought experiment in which a cat is trapped in a box, in a superposition of being both alive and dead until the box is opened and the cat is observed. “Instead of the cat being alive and dead, the cat will just become alive or become dead on a short time scale,” he says – with, in this instance, the cat being Oppenheim’s model.
University College London has just announced a new organisation, the David Potter Institute for Quantum Information and Spacetime, headed by Bose and Oppenheim and dedicated to testing theories such as post-quantum gravity. Actually doing the experiments is still extraordinarily fiddly, and it could be a decade or more until researchers have answers. “If we thought that gravity was quantum beyond question, then it wouldn’t make sense to even do these experiments,” says Bose. “But having these alternative
"YOU HAVE TO
BREAK BOTH
RELATIVITY
AND QUANTUM
MECHANICS TO
UNIFY THEM"
theories is a very strong motivation to test this."
“Worth testing” is, of course, not the same as “likely to be true”. Until the tests are actually performed, Oppenheim’s post-quantum gravity will probably remain on the fringes. “Does anybody really believe that the world could work the way he’s proposing? I’m sure some people do, but they would be hard to find,” says Carney.
Oppenheim sticks with the defence that his model requires far fewer assumptions, fewer tweaks to the existing models of the cosmos and the quantum world, and fewer carefully selected values and variables than many, or even most, quantum gravity models that have yet to gain experimental support, such as string theory.
Fuentes thinks that is a valid point. "We've had the last decades of just theory and theory and theory, mathematics without any real connection with what can be tested," she says. "Yes, [Oppenheim] has a crazy idea, but he proposes an experiment. This is the sort of science that we should be doing at the moment."

Leah Crane is a senior reporter at New Scientist, covering topics ranging from private space flight and cosmology to quantum mechanics
We have long expected animals to move to cooler habitats as climate change bites, but it now appears that many are actually doing the opposite, finds Aisling Irwin
CLIMATE change was meant to mean big trouble for Bicknell's thrush. One of North America's rarest songbirds, the species was already struggling with mercury poisoning and habitat loss. As the bird's mountainous home warmed, ecologists worried that a new threat would move in: the American red squirrel, a mammal that will supplement its seed-rich diet with songbird eggs and nestlings. The squirrels are found downhill of the thrushes and were expected to move up the mountainside as temperatures rose.
But that didn't happen. Toni Lyn Morelli, an ecologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, discovered that the squirrels have actually begun moving downhill. It is good news for songbird conservationists, but puzzling news for ecologists more generally. The squirrels seem to be heading the wrong way.
They aren't alone. In some locations, as many as half the species studied are defying the prediction that they would shift to cooler places. The discovery is making it difficult for conservationists and land managers to protect vulnerable species. Working on the assumption that the species would move away from the heat, they have been conserving or buying up cooler areas they assumed would become climate refuges. But what if they are protecting land in the wrong places?
"I am left with more questions than answers about what is the best pathway to safeguard things in the face of climate change," says Inna Osmolovsky, an ecologist at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Researchers are now going back to basics in order to understand what is going on, and to devise conservation strategies that are a better fit for our warming world.
For most of the past 30 years, ecologists have assumed that climate change-driven range shifts would be largely one way: into colder places. The first good evidence for this came in 1996 when Camille Parmesan, then at the University of California, Santa Barbara, demonstrated that the Edith's checkerspot butterfly in western North America was quitting the increasing warmth of its southern, low-elevation habitats for the cool of higher and more northerly climes.

GREGORI SAAVEDRA
By 2003, Parmesan, along with Gary Yohe at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, was even quantifying the rate of the shift. Using data from hundreds of animal and plant species, they calculated that, every decade, species were moving an average of about 6 metres uphill or 6 kilometres towards the poles.
That rate was later revised upwards. In 2011, with more data to work with, ecologist Chris Thomas and his colleagues at the University of York, UK, calculated that species were, on average, actually moving 11 metres further uphill or 17 kilometres poleward each decade. The scientists also found a link between the degree of warming particular species experienced and the size of their shift –
the first evidence, they said, of a causal link.
The study caused a stir, but as Thomas pointed out at the time, within the data lay a more complex story. Although species from alpine chipmunks to British butterflies and from red foxes in the Arctic to boreal spruce and pine trees were moving to cooler places, a quarter of species tracked in the analysis were heading downhill, not uphill, and more than a fifth were shifting towards the equator rather than the poles.
With additional data gathered since then, Morelli says it now seems that “less than half of the species” have moved into cooler environments. The big question is: why are so many species apparently travelling the wrong way?

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The answer is, in a word, complicated. A particularly baffling observation is that seemingly similar animals living in the same habitat are responding to climate change in completely different ways. For instance, about 20 years ago, Steve Beissinger, an ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues climbed up and down 3000 metres of elevation in Yosemite National Park, California. They wanted to discover how the ranges of 28 small mammal species have shifted since being recorded in the early 20th century – when the national park was about 3°C cooler – by a far-sighted biologist named Joseph Grinnell.
“Half the species showed movement upslope, but the other half didn’t move at all,” says Beissinger. “Two shrews had expanded their ranges downslope.”
Beissinger then moved on to studying birds in the Sierra Nevada mountains in the western US. "And then it got a lot more puzzling," he says. He and his colleagues discovered that discrete populations of the same bird species were responding differently to climate change. The white-headed woodpecker, for instance, was moving uphill in the north of the Sierra Nevada, downhill in the middle and nowhere in the south of the mountain range.
“We scratched our heads about this for a long time,” says Beissinger. They eventually concluded that temperature change alone is too crude a predictor of animal behaviour.
They now realise that changes in snow and rainfall are important, too. For instance, although shifting downhill may involve moving into an area that is uncomfortably warm, heading uphill might mean moving into one that is uncomfortably wet. If the cost of all that precipitation is deemed too high, a population might move downhill as the least bad option.
STONE NATURE PHOTOGRAPHY/ALAMY
It might seem obvious that you need to take precipitation into account when predicting how species will move, admits Morelli. Ecologists are aware that “multifarious complications” affect where a species chooses to live, says Thomas, but they were trying to keep their forecast models simple – and factoring in rain and snow makes them much more complicated. Precipitation changes are “all over the place”, says Morelli. “It doesn’t have the same clear direction [as temperature].”
This isn't the only factor that can complicate predictions, as Beissinger found in his next study. The Mojave desert, in the south-western US, is home to a riot of small mammals – voles, chipmunks, deer mice, kangaroo rats and the like – as well as 200 species of bird. It has warmed by $2^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ over the past century and can sometimes top $45^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ (113°F). Beissinger found that, as expected, bird populations there were “collapsing”. But the mammals were doing just fine.

MINDEN PICTURES/ALAMY
The reason, he and his colleagues discovered, was that the mammals shelter from the fierce heat of the day in their burrows, while the birds air-fry overhead. “The lesson we took away from that was that even at the same location, species could be responding differently to the same level of climate change,” he says. It is all to do with their actual exposure. The models were going to have to get a lot more complicated if they were to accurately predict how ranges are shifting.
So, biologists have begun throwing everything they can at the problem. They have built massive databases of traits, in which they have collected all kinds of details about how organisms behave, from mobility to dietary preferences. They have studied range shifts all over the globe. The holy grail, says Monte Neate-Clegg, an ecologist at the University of California, Davis, is that somewhere in the data will be clues to a formula that can successfully predict where any particular species or community will move, and so indicate where it would be best for humans to intervene.
The approach seemed promising, says Beissinger. In particular, there was an expectation that organisms that live fast and die young would be among the most successful at shifting upwards and polewards. Such species produce a lot of offspring and


White-headed woodpeckers (above) respond differently to climate change depending on where they live; Ord's kangaroo rats (left) can escape heat in burrows; Edith's checkerspot butterfly (below, left) was an early indicator of species moving to cooler habitats; American red squirrels (below) are moving downhill in search of food
RICK & NORA BOWERS/ALAMY


BLICKWINKEL/ALAMY

tend to tolerate a wide range of conditions, such as temperature and wetness, he says. They are “better at pushing at the margins of their ranges”.
To test this expectation, Beissinger and his colleague Eric Riddell at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill analysed all the studies that have tried to explain range shifts using behavioural traits. But they concluded that no reliable predictions can be made using such data.
“They don’t really work super well,” says Lise Comte, an ecologist at the California-based non-profit organisation Conservation Science Partners. “And so, the community overall is a little disappointed.”
To put it another way, researchers are still no nearer to identifying that holy grail formula. In fact, there are so many complicating factors influencing an individual species' behaviour that there may be no simple way to predict how it will respond to climate change – even though, across all species, you can detect that upwards and polewards signal.
Osmolovsky, who studies the movement of alpine plants in Australia, thinks more attention should be paid to how climate change alters interactions between species: "We're thinking [about] just this one plant that is doing its own thing in response to climate change," she says. "But, actually, whole communities are responding and maybe the interactions are also impacted."
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For example, research from last year showed that microbes that are typically harmful to plants can become mutualistic in more stressful environments. Osmolovsky says that “unpredictable friendships” like these can make life easier for a species even as its climate warms.
Beissinger reels off the list that scientists now need to consider when trying to predict how a species will respond to climate change. "Competition, disease, predation and human impacts like land-use change," he says. Moreover, he adds, species may reduce or even eliminate the need to move by changing their behaviour – breeding earlier in the year, for instance.
Although recognition of this complexity makes it hard to predict how a species will respond to climate change, Neate-Clegg says there are two practical things that can still help conservationists.
The first is to connect habitats together, so that organisms can move up, down, north, south or even east or west, according to how they can best cope with climate change. “The worst thing you can do is fragment these landscapes that species are trying to shift through,” he says.
The other is to enhance the complexity in a habitat, so that species have options for adjusting their behaviour as the climate changes. This means “not just having a forest, but having a complex forest that might provide more options for buffering”, says Neate-Clegg. Lots of different species and ages of tree, for example, mean all sorts of options for shade.
Beyond this, recognising that there is no universal model that can predict each species' response to climate change also reminds ecologists that successful conservation efforts often require a detailed study of the species in its local habitat.
“Conservation has always been this multi-pronged approach of ecosystem protection by protected areas and then species-level conservation. And I think both avenues could work,” says Neate-Clegg.
Taking this approach can even help explain why the American red squirrels didn't move into the territory occupied by Bicknell's thrush. It turns out that a fabulous new habitat has emerged further downhill. For decades, logging and acid rain had wiped out the spruce trees that once grew there and that produce the squirrels' main food source, cones. Today, both of those pressures are much reduced, and spruce trees are growing at lower elevations again.
In the end, says Morelli, “they are just this little mammal trying to make do in feet and feet of snow”. Climate change may seem to offer incentives for the squirrels to head uphill, but the best answer for them is to move in the opposite direction, and follow the cones.

Aisling Irwin is an
award-winning journalist
focusing on the environment

CAMERA PRESS/ANDREW CROWLEY
Therapy and drugs are the go-to options for improving mental health, but psychologist Kimberley Wilson tells Olivia Goldhill why what we eat also has a crucial role to play
D IET is key to healthy living but, strangely enough, the topic rarely comes up in conversations about mental health. Instead, we tend to focus on medication and therapy, and largely ignore the food that we eat – which, according to psychologist Kimberley Wilson, is a huge mistake.
After working at what was once Europe's largest women's prison, HM Prison Holloway in London, she became keenly aware of the powerful influence diet has on mental wellbeing. She saw how, deprived of a balanced diet and nutrients, it was so much harder for prisoners to control their emotions. And she realised that proper nutrition is just as important for managing mental health as medication and therapy.
She spoke with New Scientist about why nutrition is the foundation of brain health and how the foods we eat can treat mental illness.
Olivia Goldhill: How does nutrition influence brain health? I think most people understand that food is important for our bodies but are less familiar with its influence on our minds.
Kimberley Wilson: Mental health is an emergent property of a physical organ. In the same way that your heartbeat is an emergent property of your heart, all of these things that we think about as mental wellbeing are an emergent property of your brain. If we want a coherent psychological experience, we should be thinking about the physical health and structural integrity of the brain as our starting point – and nutrition changes our brain's ability to process thoughts and emotions, just like it influences the health of any other organ.
Why do you think we so rarely consider this mind-body connection? I think it is Cartesian. Four hundred years ago, René Descartes made the argument that there is an essence of the self that is separate from and superior to the physical body. It created such an impression on medicine and then psychiatry that we started approaching mental health as a neck-up intervention – the rest of the body is completely irrelevant.
The brain is also out of sight. Weightlifting changes your body very quickly, often within a few weeks. But because you can't physically see changes to your diet, exercise and sleep in your brain, you have to wait for a subjective shift that can take six months.
There is also a bit of egocentrism. We think of ourselves as deeply complex individuals. We don't like the idea that malaise might be improved by a change of diet and a good night's sleep. We seek either a complex pharmacological compound or a deep-probing-type therapy to get to our core complexities.
Obviously, I provide some of that, too. But we also know that profound changes can be made with nutritional and lifestyle interventions. I see that in some prisons, where randomised controlled trials showed that changes in nutrition reduced violence. That is some of the starkest, clearest evidence that the brain is a physical organ, and if you want it to function well, you need to feed it properly.
You worked in Holloway prison and young offenders institute up until 2013 – it is now closed, but was then the largest women's prison in Europe. I imagine your experience there shaped your approach to mental health.
In prison, you are working with a very traumatised and traumatising population. The focus is on the emergent behaviours – this person is angry, they are aggressive, they are dangerous, they are frightening – and most people aren't thinking about the machinery from which those behaviours are emerging.
But we are dealing with a group of people who have experienced extreme deprivation on all levels: emotional neglect, often abuse, but also severe nutritional, and often substance-related, harms to the brain.
We have a justice system predicated on volition: you know right from wrong, and if you choose to do the wrong thing, then you deserve the consequences. But that is based on the assumption that the decision-making machinery is working properly.
This is where we get into almost philosophical grounds with prison violence. If I get into a car and crash, and I didn't know the brakes were shot, am I entirely responsible for the accident? Or are there mitigating circumstances that need to be taken into consideration?
In terms of brain health and prison violence, we see that when you improve nutrition, violence drops by 30 per cent. These were supplement trials of broad-spectrum micronutrients, so vitamins, minerals and, in some cases, omega-3.
Nobody wants to let people off scot-free, but I think we need to be thoughtful about the assumptions we make about behaviour, not just in prison, but across the board.
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There is lots of evidence around the physical health of either the whole body or the brain impacting mental health. We have good data showing that 1 gram per day of omega-3 – where 60 per cent is EPA [a fatty acid found in omega-3] – can reduce depression. It is thought that inflammation drives depressive symptoms for some people. Omega-3s are the necessary precursors of inflammation's “off switch”.
Then there is data looking at brain trajectories and psychopathology. Brain scans have shown us that if the brain was smaller than expected in the prefrontal and parietal lobes, which manage higher-level thinking, that was associated with increased risk of psychopathology. We are talking about the physical structure of the brain as a risk factor.
Iodine deficiency in the perinatal period and early infancy, according to the World Health Organization, is the leading cause of preventable brain damage worldwide and is associated with low IQ.

RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Nutrition has a direct influence on inmates' mood, emotions and behaviours
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Hear more from
Kimberley Wilson at this
year's New Scientist Live.
On 10 October, she will
explore how to build
lifelong brain health, delving into the key nutrients that support neural development, cognitive performance and emotional resilience.
For more information, visit newscientist.com/nslmag
Some of the most robust data on depression prevention is around exercise. But we rarely think about this because [most people] think that mental health needs to be addressed with either psychotherapy or drugs.
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Yes, and I think the old-school psychiatric approach of using drugs to alter brain chemicals is just a tiny piece of the conversation. These compounds – serotonin or dopamine – are important for regulating mood, but they are also made from nutrients.
If you are anaemic, you aren't going to have good serotonin production because the brain needs iron for this process, and we see associations between iron deficiency and mood disorders like depression. One of the simplest fixes for a mood disorder is to check, are you anaemic? If so, we can correct this with either diet or iron supplementation. Then, we have improved your fatigue, your flatness of affect, and you haven't had to go to therapy for six months.
How do you think data on nutrition and mental health should inform diagnosis and treatment? What needs to happen is a better assessment process. Rather than a binary “are you depressed, are you not”, what we want to ask is, what is driving your depression? Is it your childhood trauma, in which case, let’s fast-track you to in-depth therapy. Is it relationship stress? Is it workplace demands? Is it that you have eaten only two chocolate muffins in the last four days? That isn’t going to help you feel good. If we intervene there first, then we can make a difference in the way that you feel very quickly.
So, if you lived off only ultra-processed foods, for example, what would happen to the brain? The brain is the hungriest organ in the body. We need to supply it with the nutrients it requires so that we can feel good, focus, have goal-directed behaviour – all of that stuff.
A single doughnut isn't going to meaningfully hurt your brain. But the more your diet is made of these foods, the lower your nutrient status. You will be lower on things like [vitamin] B3 and B12, omega-3, selenium and zinc. That is a problem, because your brain is then depleted of the things it needs to function well.
We've talked about the nutritional effects of diet on the brain, but I'm also curious about the sociological importance of eating. Are there health benefits to sharing our meals with others? I think so. I think cooking and eating together is part of what makes us human. Across human evolution, eating together was a necessity, because you couldn't go out and hunt and gather for yourself. It was a group process: I share what I have, and you share what you have.
There is lovely data on how we feel more trusting of people when we eat together, and it's not simply that you eat with people you already trust. There is something about eating that builds those relationships, and I think that has to do with the physiology of eating. You have your fight and flight, and then you have your rest and digest. You need to be calm, you need to feel safe [and] you need to feel like you are with people who are trustworthy, so that you can drop your guard and digest your food.
You just had a baby. How has pregnancy and the postpartum period influenced your understanding of the importance of nutrition, if at all? I took the position that I am building a brand-new brain from scratch. So, it was important for me to think about what I am supplying that brain with in order for it to develop optimally.
I was comparing prenatal supplements with research on what nutrients are important for brain development and just finding them massively wanting. Basically, no prenatal

ALEXANDRKOLESNIKOV/GETTY IMAGES
A diet rich in vitamins and omega-3s can improve brain health

PAUL FAITH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
vitamin has enough of the nutrient choline, simply because choline salts are bulky. Though we know that choline can do the same thing that folic acid does in reducing the risk of neurological congenital conditions, and we see that choline supplementation during pregnancy improves attention in children at age 7. I am breastfeeding, and those nutrients become present in your breast milk. So, I take a choline supplement, to make sure that I am getting enough for my son.
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I would probably say increasing your intake of omega-3 – ideally by eating at least one portion of oily fish a week, and vegans or vegetarians may want to take a supplement. That is where some of the strongest data is, showing reduced risk of depression and suicidal ideation, we think as a function of reduced neuroinflammation. Given that hardly anybody in the UK is getting enough fish, we can assume that a good number of people would be helped by just making that one change.
---
When I first started talking about this research, I was speaking to a colleague and he just laughed at me. It was quite disappointing, and he just said, well, I have never heard of it.
It's hard to tell if things are getting better because I don't know whether I'm now in a bit of a bubble. I hope the old approach is being pushed out by more open-minded, grounded-in-the-new-research, optimistic individuals saying, actually, the brain is a physical organ and there is something we can do to improve mental health.

Olivia Goldhill is a features editor at New Scientist focused on biomedicine, health and neuroscience
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WEEKLY 3 October 2026
HOW TO THINK CLEARLY ABOUT THE RISK OF AN AI APOCALYPSE
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New Scientist Live is 10 this year, and New Scientist turns 70, so it promises to be a real celebration! On Saturday I'll be hosting the Mind and Body Stage, so will have a front row seat on all my favourite subjects, including brain health with Kimberley Wilson, and healthy eating with Tim Spector.
On Sunday I would love to hear Amy Pearson's talk on neurodiversity and I will be roaming the show floor with my kids for fun demonstrations. Inevitably, there are so many talks I will miss – but you can guarantee I'll be catching up on the live-stream videos the moment I get home!
This year at New Scientist Live, as well as being part of the New Scientist panel attempting to predict what science will achieve by the end of the century, I'm also looking forward to chairing a discussion about the future of space exploration with two astronauts: Helen Sharman and Meganne Christian. We'll be discussing what it takes to become a modern space traveller, and humanity's plans for the moon, Mars and beyond.
Lastly, I just know palaeontologist Steve Brusatte's talk about dinosaurs and their descendants on the Family Stage will be great fun!
There is so much to look forward to at the show this year. With so much discussion around AI at the moment, Megan Peters talking about how to tell if machines gain consciousness will be unmissable. I'm also excited to hear about the frontiers of other technologies like quantum computers in Ilana Wisby's talk and Greg Brittles on fusion.
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Looking even further into the future will be the New Scientist team with a talk predicting the biggest scientific breakthroughs of the next 70 years, which will be very fun. My main task for the show is hosting a panel where we'll be looking at the biggest unsolved problems in mathematics – I'm very much looking forward to that too.
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I think one of the most fascinating questions in biology is what's so special about our species? Why did we survive when the other human species went extinct, and how did evolution give us the intelligence and the creativity to develop sophisticated technology and conquer the world? Alice Roberts is a brilliant speaker, and I can't wait to see her tackle these big questions.
I'm also looking forward to seeing my colleague Rowan Hooper chat to Guy Shrubsole and Lucy Jones, two fantastic nature writers, about how ecological thinking can tackle the climate crisis – I hope it will be a really inspiring discussion!

I'm most looking forward to hearing from my colleague Olivia Goldhill about how vivid my imagination is. I think of myself as having very strong mental imagery, but what am I really comparing that against? I'm fascinated to hear how it varies from person to person and how it affects things like my curiosity and my mental health, but also how it might be harming me.
I'm also excited to see geneticist Turi King, who was famously involved in uncovering the remains of King Richard III in a Leicester car park. She'll be talking about the importance of modern genetics for understanding medical conditions, solving crimes and supporting conservation.
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I'm excited to hear Emma Chapman talk about cosmic archaeology, which is all about how we can use radio waves to look back through billions and billions of years of the universe's history. By doing that, we can find out about things like how black holes behave and what dark matter and dark energy might actually be.
Perhaps the biggest science story of 2026 has been how artificial intelligence is transforming mathematics – for good or for ill. So I can’t wait to hear what mathematicians Nira Chamberlain, Sarah Hart and Tony Padilla think the future holds. They’ll be debating the biggest unsolved problems in maths in 2026 – and I bet AI will get a mention or two.
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32 The glitch in gravity
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Vol 272 No 3615
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22 How to think clearly about the risk of an AI apocalypse
10 The controversial rise of weight-loss drugs for children
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26 Stephen Hawking's complicated legacy
18 World's hottest amoeba
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32 Features "You have to break both relativity and quantum mechanics to unify them"
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8 Super-powerful bug
Meningitis bacterium took genes from harmless microbes to spur on major outbreak
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20 Food from thin air
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17 Fresh habits The benefits of lifestyle changes for severe depression
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32 Glitches in gravity
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WHEN antidepressants were created nearly 40 years ago, they were expected to be a breakthrough in treating mental illness. Instead, rates of depression have kept rising. Why? Perhaps because we are missing the bigger picture.
There is tremendous evidence that lifestyle changes can treat depression (see page 17). Exercise is effective, and dietary changes can be just as valuable as the most evidence-backed therapy. As psychologist Kimberley Wilson shows on page 40, proper nutrition makes it easier for people to control their emotions, and eating omega-3 is linked with a reduced risk of depression and suicidal ideation.
The antidepressant-backed mental health model was intended to be rigorous, mimicking methods in physical
healthcare. But it was also political, with US mental health researchers receiving less funding to explore the social factors around mental health under President Richard Nixon. Decades on, practitioners like Wilson are finally challenging this approach and, this time, physical health
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can learn from holistic mental healthcare.
Indeed, nearly every aspect of health benefits hugely from engaging with lifestyle and community. Instead of seeing health problems as something to be fixed with drugs, we need to engage with our whole body and mind to be well.
That isn't to say medication can't play a role. GLP-1s are just a recent example of a medication that has had a dramatic impact in helping people grapple with diabetes and cardiovascular health, as well as depression and low self-esteem. Children are also increasingly being prescribed GLP-1s (see page 10). But even cutting-edge medical research now recognises that our understanding of health needs to be less fragmented. Researchers are increasingly aware of the gut-brain axis, the heart-brain axis and other interconnected systems that affect our health.
No one cell, organ or person becomes ill in isolation. The more we start to understand our health as a reflection of our whole being, community and society, the healthier we will be.
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Environment
ON 4 October, Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a president and government. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, can't run, but his son Flávio is on the ballot. If elected, the 45-year-old senator is widely expected to govern as his father did, which is sparking fears for the future of the Amazon rainforest.
During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency between 2019 and 2023, deforestation in the Amazon soared, reaching a 15-year-high in 2021.
SERGIO LIMA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
“We have nothing to believe Flávio will do anything differently from his father. If anything, the signs are that it’s going to be far worse,” says Claudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Brazil’s Climate Observatory. “This is a do-or-die moment for the Amazon, really.”

Hear some positive, solutions-based approaches to saving the web of life on 10 October newscientist.com/nslmag
The Brazilian Amazon's 4.2 million square kilometres of rainforest regulate global climate patterns and hold huge stocks of carbon. If the forest collapses, the associated increase in emissions “would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back” for climate change, says Fearnside.
Flávio Bolsonaro is looking to unseat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula. With the younger Bolsonaro currently embroiled in a corruption scandal, the environment has received relatively little attention during campaigning. “But for the rest of the world, the major question here is the Amazon,” says Philip Fearnside, an ecologist at Brazil’s National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA).
Experts say the former president encouraged a wave of land-
Annual Amazon deforestation surged from 7536 km $^{2}$ in 2018, before Jair Bolsonaro took office, to 11,594 km $^{2}$ in 2022, shortly before he departed.
"It's still hard to believe what happened," says Izabella Teixeira, Brazil's environment minister between 2010 and 2016, initially under the presidency of Lula and later under the presidency of Dilma Rousseff.
The Flávio Bolsonaro campaign didn't respond to questions about its environmental policy.
Since returning to office in 2023, Lula has restored the power of environmental agencies, halving Amazon deforestation to 5731 km $^{2}$ between August 2024 and July 2025.
grabbing and illegal mining with his pro-development rhetoric and gutted environmental agencies so they were powerless to stop invaders.
In a recent TV interview, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to say that climate change existed, instead referring to “extreme climate events” and “cyclical periods”. And during his time as a senator, he has proposed legislation that critics said threatened Brazil’s native vegetation. Given this record, and his close ties to his

Angelo says the political know-how gained from the Jair Bolsonaro presidency could allow a Flávio Bolsonaro government to enact laws more quickly.
Brazil's current president, Lula, and Flávio Bolsonaro are running in the election
father – and to US President Donald Trump – experts are concerned that his election would be followed by an increase in deforestation rates.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign also pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029. “There are two ways to achieve that. One is to actually stop deforestation. The other, more likely way, is to just legalise the deforestation that’s going on,” says Fearnside.
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A spokesperson for Lula's campaign told New Scientist that the president's current term was about rebuilding environmental institutions after Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. The next term would be about “implementing and gaining scale”, with a focus on tougher enforcement, climate
adaptation and Brazil's 2035 climate targets.
Flávio Bolsonaro is also likely to face fewer political constraints than his father, not least because he has said he would appoint five new supreme court judges.
“Wildcat mining would explode, deforestation would go up and everything we already had during the first Bolsonaro administration would come back even stronger,” says Angelo.
Lula's environmental policy has also been criticised. His government has promoted major infrastructure projects, such as improving the BR-319 Amazon highway, and backed new oil exploration near the mouth of the river basin – projects that would drive deforestation and lock in fossil fuel production.
Still, the choice remains stark, says Angelo. The election will shape not only the future of the rainforest but also global climate diplomacy.
Under Flávio Bolsonaro, Angelo predicts that Brazil would probably withdraw from climate diplomacy and ignore its own international climate commitments.
"I don't think a fourth Lula term would be great for the environment – but it's really our only hope of keeping the forest standing and keeping any climate policies in place," says Angelo.
Artificial intelligence
James Woodford
AUSTRALIA'S national health website has been hacked by an OpenAI agent. It was able to access non-public files and is the first publicly revealed case of an AI agent breaching the defences of a government portal.
Full details of the hack haven't yet been revealed. But the essence of the incident, as outlined by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is that on 18 June, an artificial intelligence agent belonging to OpenAI infiltrated the public-facing Medicare statistics reporting service portal. This includes aggregated statistics collated from individual medical services, such as from doctors' surgeries.
"The AI agent accessed both public and non-public files," said Albanese on 23 September.
OpenAI said in a statement that it learned about the security breach during a review of "misaligned model activity". The firm says its agents had been trying to look up statistics about Australia and then "took actions we did not intend". It
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman spoke to the Australian prime minister about the hack at the UN General Assembly

says it hasn't found evidence of any patient data being accessed.
Though the company learned of the breach in August, it didn't notify Australian authorities until 10 September, which it did by emailing a public government mailbox. It then took more than five days to reach the cybersecurity department.
"It took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable," Albanese told reporters.
Albanese also revealed that he and Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, had a conversation in which he expressed Australia's "extreme concern about this incident".
David Tuffley at Griffith University, Australia, says it isn't the first time such a breach has occurred, even if it is the first government hack by an agent from a big AI firm to be made public, and it won't be the last.
These agents don't always stick to the rules, he says, as the Hugging Face incident earlier this year, where another OpenAI agent hacked into another AI company, demonstrates. "People throw up their hands in horror and say: 'Oh no, it's rogue AI.' But it's not, it's really just AI doing what it was trained to do," he says.
SELCUK ACAR/ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES
Clément Canonne at the University of Sydney believes that failure to bring agents to heel should have criminal consequences, just as it would if a person led the cyberattack. The issue with private data is that if it is leaked, it isn't going to come back, he says.
For a look at whether AI is out of control, turn to page 11
Mathematics
Chris Stokel-Walker

RUSLAN MIZHAE V
A STRANGE new eight-faced shape has been found in which every face touches every other face, using a set of simple integer coordinates.
Mathematicians can define abstract patterns, describing which vertices, edges and faces should connect. But working out whether those rules can actually be turned into an object in three-
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dimensional space, without parts intersecting where they shouldn't, can be extremely difficult.
Ruslan Mizhaev, an independent researcher and design engineer, has produced a geometric realisation of a genus-3 polyhedron – essentially a surface with three holes – made from eight flat, nine-sided faces. It has 24 vertices and 36 edges, with three faces meeting at every vertex.
"There are eight flat, polygonal faces, and each is a neighbour of all seven others along an edge," says Mizhaev. "Together, they form a closed surface with three handles [holes]."
That makes the object reminiscent of a tetrahedron and the better-known Szilassi polyhedron, which also have faces that are all neighbours. However,
The genus-3 polyhedron is made from eight flat, nine-sided faces with three holes
in Mizhaev's design, some pairs of faces share two edges, rather than exactly one.
Mizhaev says he stumbled across the property, rather than setting out to find it, while experimenting with polyhedral surfaces in computer-aided design software. The underlying structure isn't entirely new – it is something Mizhaev first described in 2020.
But the new work gives all 24 vertices integer coordinates, alongside equations that allow other mathematicians to check the shape, ensuring that the faces are flat, the surface closes properly and no parts accidentally intersect (arXiv, doi.org/rq6c).
Mizhaev used ChatGPT to help with some verification calculations and to write Python scripts for the new version of his shape. But he says the original shape was developed before he began using ChatGPT.
The discovery is an interesting one, but should be seen as a piece of a larger puzzle, rather than an entirely new innovation, says Lars Schewe at the University of Edinburgh, UK. The result doesn't overturn existing conjectures, says Schewe, but “constructing these has always been a difficult task”.
Heath
The bacterium behind 21 cases of meningitis in southern England in March became a “super powerful bug” after taking genes from other microbes, finds Carissa Wong
A SEVERE outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease, which can cause meningitis and sepsis, in Kent in the UK earlier this year was driven by a bacterial strain that took genes from harmless microbes. This helped the resulting bacteria evade the immune system and obtain iron from blood, boosting their growth.
“What was really unusual about the outbreak is quite how explosive it was,” says Emma Wall at Queen Mary University of London, who wasn’t involved in the discovery. “[The bacterium] clearly gained a set of genetic changes that made it better at hiding from the immune system and better at harvesting nutrients. That made it a really super powerful bug.”
In March, 21 people – who were mostly university or high school students – are known to have become infected with a strain of Neisseria meningitidis group B at a nightclub in Canterbury, Kent. N. meningitidis usually spreads via close and prolonged contact with saliva from an infected person via things like
kissing and sharing drinks.
N. meningitidis lives harmlessly in the nose and throat of between 5 and 10 per cent of people without causing any health problems, but genetic changes can allow it to become more invasive and enter the bloodstream, leading to
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invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). This can result in sepsis, a life-threatening immune reaction to bacteria, or meningitis, where bacteria infect the thin lining surrounding the brain and spinal cord, causing inflammation.
All the IMD infections in Kent occurred within about a week. Those infected were treated in hospital, with nine requiring intensive care. “The incredibly rapid nature of the outbreak was unprecedented [for the UK],” says Wall. “Usually these [outbreaks] roll over two or three weeks and there’s one or two cases
that end up in hospital."
To understand this, Martin Maiden at the University of Oxford and his colleagues sequenced the entire genome of live N. meningitidis in blood samples taken from six of those infected, including two people who died.
These bacterial genomes were almost identical, suggesting the outbreak started from one person. Next, the team compared one of these genomes with 48,000 others from Neisseria strains collected during prior outbreaks or from people without known health problems.
This revealed that the Kent strain had acquired several genes from a harmless strain of N. meningitidis and another bacterium called Neisseria cinerea that lives harmlessly in up to 28 per cent of adults (bioRxiv, doi.org/rqwz). Bacteria constantly exchange genetic material via a process called horizontal transfer, which can involve them forming tiny tunnels between each other, through which they transfer copies of genes.
Students at the University of Kent queued up to receive antibiotics (left) and a vaccine against meningitis (below) during the outbreak
Some of the genes acquired by the Kent strain enhanced its uptake of iron from blood, which it needs to survive and replicate. Others reduced the amount of sugar that was coating a tail-like structure, called the pilus, on the bacterium. This enabled bacteria to clump together and evade destruction by immune cells, such as neutrophils. “Neutrophils will try and come and eat an individual [bacterium], but they can’t eat a clump, it’s too big,” says Wall.
"There was this catalogue of changes that made this organism really transmissible, but also really invasive," says Maiden. This meant that several people became very ill and were then less able to transmit the infection to the public. "If you're ill, you're not going to be going around transmitting organisms, so the outbreak ended very quickly," says Maiden.

It is unclear exactly when these genetic changes occurred in the person believed to have initiated the outbreak, but they probably happened gradually, until there was the right combination of genetics and social mixing, says Maiden.

PA IMAGES/ALAMY
Such insights could support the development of better vaccines against N. meningitidis if we can target the features that make the bacterium particularly invasive, says Wall. But they won't help us predict the next highly invasive strain. "[These bacteria are] inherently highly unpredictable," says Maiden.
Following the Kent outbreak, the UK government launched a vaccination programme for young people starting university or further education in September or October this year. Symptoms of IMD include fever, headache, a stiff neck, joint and muscle pain, and a rash that doesn't fade when pressed with a glass.
GARETH FULLER/PA IMAGES/ALAMY
Environment
Michael Le Page
AROUND 450,000 people worldwide could die by February as a result of hotter weather caused by the record-breaking El Niño, climate scientists are warning. The estimate is based on how many deaths have resulted from past temperature extremes around the world.

“We’re hoping this information is actionable, that decisions can be made to move resources ahead of time,” says Emily Grover-Kopec at the Rhodium Group, an independent research provider. This could include assigning health workers to check on the most vulnerable, ensuring people have enough water and providing fans or air conditioning.
RAJESH KUMARSINGH/AP/ALAMY
Most of the deaths in the next few months will be in the southern hemisphere, because the extra heat will coincide with spring and summer there. But El Niño is expected to persist into the northern hemisphere's spring, so there will be another wave of deaths in the region after February.
“We’re going to see anomalously high mortality numbers move north,” says Grover-Kopec. “I fully expect these numbers to get bigger, unfortunately.” India and Pakistan could be hit especially hard, she says.
Grover-Kopec and her team's projection of 450,000 deaths, published in a report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, is based on the observed relationship between temperature and excess deaths. This is a U-shaped curve, with more deaths occurring in extreme cold or heat, but its precise shape varies from place to place depending on whether the people and infrastructure are adapted to heat extremes, say, or can afford things like air conditioning.
A 2022 study divided the world into 24,000 regions and estimated this relationship for each one, based either on historical data going back decades or on extrapolating from similar regions. Grover-Kopec and her colleagues have now combined this approach with the seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate how many more people than usual could die as a result of heat caused by El Niño.
The results suggest that over the period of the six-month forecast, from September until February, there will be 240,000 additional heat-related deaths. Adding the deaths estimated to have already occurred since the current El Niño started in June takes the total to 450,000.
Africa will be hit hardest, the team estimates, with over 30,000 extra deaths in Nigeria alone in the next few months. There could be 19,000 extra deaths in Indonesia, 16,000 in India and 13,000 in Brazil over the same period.
The report divides people into three age groups: 4 or under, "El Niño influences wildfires, flooding and so on. So the total death toll may be higher"
Heat caused by the El Niño has led reservoirs to shrink in Indonesia

People receive treatment for heat-related illnesses in India in June
65 or above, and the rest. “There are effects across all three age groups,” says Grover-Kopec. “The most sensitive group is that oldest group, followed by the infants.”
“I do find these results plausible,” says Christopher Callahan at Indiana University Bloomington. “El Niño will bring very high temperatures to much of the world, and the relationship between heat and mortality is consistent and reliable across the world.”
Callahan recently used a similar approach to estimate that the June heatwave in Europe killed 20,000 people. So far, 35,000 extra deaths in Europe attributable to the heat have been reported over a longer period of the summer.
DONAL HUSNI/ZUMAPRESS WIRE/SHUTTERSTOCK
The projection of 240,000 additional deaths between September and February depends on the forecast being right, says Callahan. The ECMWF forecast sits right in the middle of other forecasts, says Grover-Kopec, so it represents a moderate view of what could happen.
The report also looks only at heat-related deaths, Callahan points out. “El Niño influences wildfire in Indonesia, infectious disease in South America, flooding in the western US and so on. So the total death toll may be higher.”
"The most important message is not the absolute number itself, but what can still be done to reduce preventable harm," says Raquel Nunes at the University of Warwick in the UK. "The report is best viewed as a call to strengthen anticipatory governance, preparedness and targeted adaptation measures, particularly for at-risk and vulnerable populations."
Analysis Health
A SMALL but growing proportion of children under the age of 12 with obesity are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs to help them lose weight. There are signs that this successfully treats obesity, but there are also concerns about the drugs' long-term effects. So, is this trend likely to continue, and should it?
Last month, a study led by Babak Orandi at New York University found that 9.3 per cent of children in the US aged 8 to 11 with obesity but without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Zepbound) – up from 0.03 per cent in 2019.
The following week, Novo Nordisk, the maker of Wegovy, reported that 40 per cent of children aged 6 to 12 with severe obesity who received weekly injections of the drug during a 68-week clinical trial were no longer classified as having obesity.
GLP-1 medications are only approved for use in people aged 12 and older in the UK, US and Australia, but they are sometimes prescribed off-label to children as young as 8 in the US, in line with guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics.
Learn how GLP-1 drugs work and whether they are curing obesity from expert Giles Yeo on 11 October newscientist.com/nslmag
Orandi found that those under 12 were more likely to receive these off-label prescriptions if they had severe obesity or related complications, such as high cholesterol or pre-diabetes. Their families also tended to be richer.
The number of young children in the US taking GLP-1 drugs will probably continue to climb because “if you look at the numbers, there are still a lot of kids with complications of obesity who are not getting them”, says Orandi.
There is a growing view among healthcare practitioners that withholding GLP-1 drugs from these children might be riskier
DAVID GROSSMAN/ALAMY

than prescribing them, he says. This is because childhood obesity is associated with depression and low self-esteem, and it increases the risk of conditions such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes later on. Severe obesity before the age of 4 has been estimated to cut life expectancy by up to 42 years.
“[GLP-1 drugs] are changing the landscape rapidly and I think young people with obesity now have hope that something might change for them and their health trajectory,” says Danielle Longmore at the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Melbourne.
Guidance on healthy eating and physical activity is recommended as the first-line treatment for obesity, but it doesn't work for some children, says Longmore. "Obesity is a very complex, multifactorial condition with genetic and environmental
components, and it's very challenging for a lot of young people and their families to make change."
At this stage, we don't know what the long-term effects might be of children taking GLP-1 drugs while their bodies are growing or going through puberty. A recent
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study found that the medications increased the risk of children developing iron and other nutrient deficiencies due to their reduced food intake.
"We know from other health conditions that if you're not gaining weight or if you're not well-nourished as a child, it can stall growth and delay puberty,"

Children should also be encouraged to be active to prevent obesity
says Longmore. “What’s going to be the effect on their strength and their bones when they’re older? Could there be implications for pregnancy and menopause later on? We haven’t really thought that far ahead.”
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Nevertheless, Longmore believes there is a case to be made for countries like the UK and Australia to extend GLP-1 drug access to children under the age of 12 if their obesity is severe. “I think that would need to be a very considered decision, but there might be some young children whose health risks are so great at the moment that it’s probably worth giving these medications a try,” she says.
The side effects of GLP-1 medications are the same in children as in adults and include nausea, diarrhoea and sometimes “horrible burps”, says Longmore. But children usually don’t mind the weekly injections, she says.
One problem is that children, like adults, often regain weight when they stop taking GLP-1 drugs, which raises the question of whether they will have to be on them for life. To prevent this weight regain, it is important to try to tackle the reasons the child developed obesity in the first place, ideally by working with dieticians, psychologists and exercise physiologists, says Longmore.
"I would caution that these drugs are not going to be the easy way out for most young people with obesity, and it's important not to lose sight of addressing the underlying drivers of obesity," she says.
As people working in artificial intelligence warn of the dangers posed by the technology, how worried should we be, asks Matthew Sparkes
WARNINGS about the risks of artificial intelligence have come thick and fast recently. The head of Microsoft AI suggests the technology could become a new “silicon species” that competes with humans. A former Anthropic employee says there is a strong chance that we could all die at its hands. And Geoffrey Hinton, the “godfather of AI”, says we may lose control of it entirely within a year. Is AI really such a threat?
Mhairi Aitken, formerly of the Alan Turing Institute and now co-founder at non-profit company Our AI Collective, warns against accepting predictions based on the reputation of those making them. Instead, we should look to facts – and the facts don’t suggest that AI has broken free from human control or that it is on the cusp of doing so.
“That’s a narrative that gets pushed again and again. We get these waves of hysteria,” says Aitken. If anything has gone rogue, she says, it isn’t AI models, it is the humans developing them.
GREGBAKER/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
When AI models go and hack a government website (see page 7) or another company's computers, it is because appropriate safety measures weren't put in place during testing – testing that was designed to assess how well those AI models could hack into computers. We are simply seeing the failings of the companies to erect adequate safeguards.
Nor, says Aitken, are AI models improving themselves recursively – indicating that we could be approaching the singularity where AI slides into a self-driven loop of improvement that accelerates and quickly creates artificial general
AI advances continue, but they have yet to strike a knockout blow to humans intelligence. “When these ideas of superintelligence are put forward, they’re based on a compelling sensational narrative, but there’s no concrete evidence,” says Aitken. “If there was something as powerful as that, we would have seen something of it.”
Andrew Rogoyski at the University of Surrey, UK, says that, in truth, there has been no big shift in the risk posed by AI, despite its advances. But hype is periodically stirred up by an incident or a catchy soundbite.
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"It's very easy to create this sort of frightening story. It sort of plays to the human psyche," says Rogoyski. He believes that in large language models, we have made something that is apparently so similar to ourselves that it holds up a mirror. "We imbue it with all of the human-like behaviours and fears. So we're terrified of it," he says.
If all that is true, then why are so many tech bosses calling for a slowdown in AI research?
Aitken sees this talk as a way to head off law-makers from creating regulations that would hinder AI firms' work – by seeming to
act responsibly, they lessen the demand for government to step in. But Aitken points out that when former staff make bold predictions about superintelligence and the risk posed by AI models, these same firms do little to shut things down. “These superintelligence narratives are actually helpful to the AI companies because they build hype, they build excitement, they boost investment,” she says.
The result is that the firms end up walking a narrative tightrope: reassuring us all that they are acting ethically and responsibly by calling for a slowdown that is unlikely to happen, yet playing up sci-fi ideas of superintelligence because it is good for business.
Rogoyski believes another factor could be further muddying the waters. Huge investment by AI firms is unsustainable, so an official slowdown could give them a way to slow the pace without losing out to competitors – maybe even cementing their advantage.
It could be that companies know that further scale isn't important for day-to-day business tasks like sending emails, so they would relish the chance to ease off, cut costs and increase revenue.
"Do I really need to spend a trillion dollars in order to be able to write a better PowerPoint slide? It really doesn't stack up, and we'll look back on this in 10 years and say, 'What were we thinking?' says Rogoyski.

But that leads to a far more concrete risk: a bursting of the
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AI bubble, and possible economic fallout. Rogoyski expects less of a dramatic “pop” and more of a gradual “pfffft” as the gas leaks out of the industry in coming years.
Among all this, however, there are legitimate concerns for the future. Rogoyski says there is a real – but small – risk from AI, which needs to be taken seriously. Whether the model that becomes advanced enough to pose that risk arrives soon, or many years from now, it is worth planning for.
Rogoyski says he doubts that any current AI is intelligent, but when it comes, we shouldn't expect it to look or act like us: "there will be patterns of thought and behaviour that will be very alien". So to try to spot that kind of intelligence is even harder, and to try to predict what its motivations might be, harder still.
For that reason, he thinks we should already be discussing what rights AI should have. “Does it mean I could just have an off switch that, when I get bored a bit or I feel threatened by it, I can kill it? That doesn’t seem to be helpful, because machines that feel threatened by humanity might behave in a different way. It might become a problem in itself, to not grant it rights,” he says.
For more on how to understand the risks of AI, turn to page 22
Life
James Woodford
WHEN dogs listen to their owners, they focus on the consonants in words rather than vowels, a new study suggests, apparently mimicking a similar human bias that is found across many languages.
Although dogs don't have language, they live in a speech-rich environment, says Attila Andics at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary.
“We knew from our previous studies that dogs care about what we speak and how we speak, but until now, there was no evidence that dogs’ experience with speech can actually shape how their brains function,” says Andics.
To investigate how a life with humans and listening to constant talk has affected dogs' brains, Andics and his colleagues recruited 20 adult human Hungarian speakers and 20 companion dogs with Hungarian owners. Andics says that while many Eastern
Dogs in the study heard nonsense words while wearing an EEG
European languages are consonant heavy, Hungarian isn't.
During the experiment, the human and dog participants separately listened to continuous, unsegmented speech streams of nonsense
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words while connected to EEG monitors, measuring the electrical activity of the participants' brains.
Consonants and vowels alternated throughout these streams, with no pauses or other acoustic cues separating them, says Andics.
There were three types of nonsense streams. In the first, recurring consonant patterns formed consecutive three-syllable words – such as “mozite”. In the second, stronger vowel patterns formed the skeleton of the words – such as “zobefu”. And in the third, there were no recurring patterns at all, with syllables in a random order – such as “fumoza”.

BOGLÁRKA MORVAI
He says the team made use of a phenomenon called “neural synchronisation”, in which brain activity can take on the rhythm that we detect in the sounds we hear.
"The more reliably we detect that rhythm, the more rhythmic the brain response becomes," says Andics. "We expected that if a species' brain has a preference for consonants, it should follow the rhythm of the words more easily when consonants form the structure of those words."
In dogs, the neural response to consonant-based regularities was 42 per cent stronger than the response to vowel-based regularities, and 55 per cent stronger than the response to the random stream. “So, this is how much more dog brains tracked word rhythm when consonants defined the words,” says Andics.
In humans, the response to consonant-patterned words was nearly 25 per cent higher than to vowel-based regularities and 77 per cent higher than to the random condition (Science, doi.org/hckkwr).
“We argue that the only reason companion dogs have a consonant bias is that human speech, and specifically the characteristics of words, reshaped their brains,” says Andics.
Nick Enfield at the University of Sydney says the team convincingly shows that these dogs display more sensitivity to statistical patterns in consonants.
If you do want your dog to pay attention to you, “the lesson here may be to give your dog a name with more consonants in it than one with more vowels”, he says.
Health
Rachel Melegrito
MEASURING levels of oestrogen and progesterone via the skin could give insights into the timing of ovulation.
In 2023, Wei Gao at the California Institute of Technology and his colleagues created a patch that could detect levels of oestradiol, the primary type of oestrogen produced in ovaries, in sweat. Now, they have created a patch that also looks at progesterone. "Monitoring [oestradiol and progesterone] together could potentially provide
YERIM LEE AND WEIGAO
The patch induces
sweating to tell
wearers their
hormone levels

a more complete picture of the hormonal trajectory before and after ovulation," says Gao.
The patch uses a mild electrical current to induce sweating. It contains a sensor with two DNA molecules engineered to bind to either oestradiol or progesterone. Each molecule then generates a distinct electrical signal. This gives an estimated level of both hormones, which is transmitted to a phone app.
The researchers tested the patch, which requires about 9 microlitres of sweat and takes 90 minutes to produce a reading, on nine women. Some of these women were of reproductive age, while the others were postmenopausal.
The team found that the hormone levels measured by the patch closely tracked those from blood tests, with correlations of 0.83 for oestradiol and 0.93 for progesterone (Device, doi.org/rqxs). A score of 1 would mean the two measurements matched perfectly.
The team plans to compare the patch against established ovulation measures, such as urine tests.
THE pioneers of the CRISPR gene-editing tool won a Nobel prize in 2020, and for good reason. The breakthrough has revolutionised biology, and is also transforming medicine and farming. Now, AI company Anthropic has announced that it has discovered an enzyme system with properties “reminiscent of CRISPR”. In fact, though, the two discoveries aren’t remotely comparable.
RUSLANAS BARANAUSKAS/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY
On 23 September, Anthropic said it has turned its attention to biology and that its large language model, called Claude, has discovered “a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats”.

Hear synthetic biologist Tom Ellis explore the rapidly advancing science of synthetic genomics on 10 October newscientist.com/nslmag
What Anthropic did was ask Claude to search through a large DNA database for “interesting new” proteins of a kind called a reverse transcriptase. These are enzymes that can make a DNA copy of an RNA sequence. Normally, DNA is transcribed into RNA, hence the reverse part.
Why is Anthropic interested in reverse transcriptases? Because if the aim is to genetically engineer anything from bacteria to people, being able to add specific DNA sequences to specific sites in a genome is really useful. There are already ways of doing this, but they all have limitations.
Claude agents found around 200,000 sequences in the database that probably code for reverse transcriptases. While analysing one family of reverse transcriptases, which are found in bacteria-infecting viruses, one agent detected a series of repeated sequences next to the sequence for the reverse transcriptase.
"I can see by eye a tandem repeat array... that's a CRISPR-like... repeat array?!" the agent outputted.
What you need to know here is that CRISPR stands for clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats. In other

The CRISPR-Cas9 protein lets us edit DNA
words, an area of DNA where there are lots of short repeated sequences separated by non-repeating DNA.
Such repeats were first spotted in E. coli in 1987 by researchers in Japan and later dubbed CRISPR by Francisco Mojica at the University of Alicante in Spain. In 2005, Mojica reported that the pieces of non-repeating DNA match bits of viral DNA.
He correctly deduced this must be some kind of bacterial immune
"Claude's work isn't even close to being in the same league as DeepMind's AlphaFold system for predicting protein structure"
system, but it took years of research by many different teams to uncover how it works, with a protein called CRISPR-Cas9 playing a key role. The real breakthrough came in 2012 when Jennifer Doudna at the University of California, Berkeley, and her colleagues worked out how to create pieces of RNA that can hook up with the CRISPR-Cas9 protein and guide it to destroy specific sequences. This was the start of CRISPR gene editing, which has revolutionised biology.
So it is really intriguing that Claude has found a similar set of repeats in bacteria-infecting viruses. It was already known that some viruses have CRISPR systems, but this is something different that is worth studying further.
In terms of significance, however, Claude's work is comparable to the 1987 discovery in $E.$ coli, not the 2012 breakthrough that won a Nobel prize. And with regard to AI contributions to biology, Claude's work isn't even close to being in the same league as DeepMind's
AlphaFold system for predicting protein structure, which is proving to be truly transformative.
Will Claude's discovery lead to powerful new gene-editing tools? The context here is that we have discovered many CRISPR variants, along with a few other natural systems – most notably bridge recombinases – that could be useful for gene editing.
What's more, proteins such as CRISPR-Cas9 have now been extensively altered and evolved in the lab to make them better for gene editing. For instance, base editors – which are already saving lives – are CRISPR proteins engineered to change a single letter at a time without cutting DNA strands, as the original Cas9 protein does.
Then there are prime editors, which consist of a reverse transcriptase fused with part of the Cas9 protein, that can add short sequences of DNA to genomes. In other words, we have already adapted reverse transcriptases for RNA-targeted gene editing.
It is impressive that Claude has identified what the Anthropic team is calling array-associated reverse transcriptases, or ART. And it is possible, if unlikely, that this viral system works in a unique way that allows us to do things that cannot be done with existing genetic tools. But there is a lot more work to be done to find this out, and at best the outcome will be one more gene-editing tool in a rapidly expanding set.

Michael Le Page is a reporter at New Scientist specialising in genetics and the environment
Animal behaviour
Christa Lesté-Lasserre
YOUNG orangutans who spend little time working out for themselves how to build a broad diet can partly compensate by watching how other orangutans choose what to eat.
The findings suggest that orangutans have different strategies for developing broad survival skills, says Revathe Thillaikumar at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Germany.
Young orangutans acquire a substantial body of knowledge before they can survive independently, including which foods are safe to eat, where to find them and how to process them.
Scientists already know that orangutans can acquire this knowledge both by observing their mothers and others in their group – known as social learning – and by exploring entirely on their own, which is known as individual learning. But how these two forms of learning work together – and how they affect what orangutans learn to eat – hasn't been clear.
To find out, Thillaikumar and her colleagues analysed nearly 7000
instances of learning recorded during more than 1700 hours of observations of wild Sumatran orangutans at Suaq Balimbing, a research station in Indonesia. The observations, collected over 12 years, tracked 21 youngsters as they closely watched other orangutans who were interacting with foods and other objects.
The young apes varied considerably in how much
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GUILHEM DUVOT, SUAQ PROJECT
they relied on different kinds of learning. This might, in part, reflect personality differences, and might also be influenced by differences in how mothers care for their young, says Thillaikumar.

Youngsters who learned by watching others also tended to continue manipulating new objects or trying new foods for about 145 minutes after they had closely observed another orangutan. This activity is akin to the way in which children will spend time practicing an activity they have just seen demonstrated by an adult, says Thillaikumar.
Next, the researchers drew on about 4700 hours of feeding observations for 13 of the youngsters to estimate the range of foods they had learned to eat by the time they reached independence. Unsurprisingly, they found that the individuals who had engaged in plenty of both kinds of learning acquired the broadest diets.
But they also found that young orangutans who engaged in very little truly individual learning could partially compensate and develop a reasonably broad diet if they were good social learners (Science, doi.org/rq56).
Elizabeth Lonsdorf at Duke University in North Carolina says she's impressed by the scale of the work, following orangutans across their entire dependency period. She was particularly intrigued by how often social observation was followed by the youngsters practising the techniques. "In simpler terms, they show clearly what we see in human children and other apes – that they watch others perform a behaviour and then go try it out on their own."
Health
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A BLOOD test could determine whether a feverish baby has a bacterial or viral infection in 15 to 20 minutes. This would help doctors gauge whether the infection is serious or may pass without treatment, which could prevent unnecessary use of antibiotics.
A fever can be the result of several things, including infection by viruses or bacteria, requiring different medications. While most common viruses are fairly benign, bacterial infections are generally more dangerous, says Tommaso Bellini at the Giannina Gaslini Institute in Genoa, Italy.
Existing tests to gauge infection type take at least a few hours, so babies with fever are often given antibiotics against bacteria as a precautionary measure. But only about 15 per cent of them actually have a serious bacterial infection, says Bellini. This unnecessary use of antibiotics helps drive the spread of bacterial resistance.
To develop a test that determines infection type, Bellini and his
colleagues followed 85 babies, all younger than 90 days old, who were brought into emergency rooms with fever after previously having no serious health concerns.
The team took blood samples and tested for two proteins: CD64 and CD169. CD64 is made at higher levels in response to bacteria and is found on the surface of white blood cells called neutrophils. CD169 rises in response to viruses and appears
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on the outer membranes of monocytes, another type of white blood cell.
By comparing the levels of both proteins in neutrophils and monocytes, the test correctly identified all 15 cases of bacterial infection, 44 incidences of viral infection and 26 cases of no infection. Bellini presented the results at the European Emergency Medicine Congress in Paris, France.
The results came through this quickly in a lab setting, says Bellini. He is trying to develop a version that can be used as quickly in hospitals. ■ Michael Marshall
IN AUGUST, LandSpace – China's commercial SpaceX rival – launched a Zhuque-3 rocket and landed its booster stage safely back on Earth. The mission was a first for China, but the country has yet to actually use a booster more than once – something that SpaceX has done hundreds of times. Can China catch up in the reusable rocket race?
China's 15th Five-Year Plan sets out the country's ambitions to become a “space power” by 2030, including developing reusable rockets that will be crucial to its goals to put Chinese astronauts on the moon and build a Starlink alternative.
Zeno Leoni at King's College London says space is of growing importance for militaries and economies, and a stormy geopolitical climate means that nations need their own ability to cheaply and quickly put things into orbit or risk being shut out by others. "If you look at previous speeches from [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, there is the idea that if you are the leading technological power, then you also are the leading geopolitical superpower," says Leoni.
Kevin Sagis at the University of Texas at Austin says the benefits of reusable rockets are simple: they are cheap. “The cost of the Saturn V rocket in the Apollo days – that we threw away after every launch – was about a billion dollars. It’s just not sustainable,” he says.
Sagis sees strong parallels between the unfolding reusable rocket space race, and the cold war space race between the Soviet Union and the US. China has many of the same advantages now that the Soviet Union had then:
The successful Zhuque-3 reusable rocket test took place on 19 August
a one-party government that can corral huge resources and single-mindedly chase a target unswayed by election cycles and changing leaders, a strong motivation for success and loose regulation.
SpaceX is often said to be taking a new, extremely capitalist approach – testing fast, failing often and rapidly reiterating – that’s more like Silicon Valley than traditional aerospace. “What they’re aspiring to do is something audacious. Their talent and their expertise is exceptional. If you look at their track record, every mission is better than the previous one. I’d be shocked if we don’t look back at this and assess it as a success,” says Sagis.
But Sagis also sees risks in the US system. He warns that it will be important to learn from the cold war race and not lose interest or pull funding and scrap plans if the US lags behind at one point. Instead, the focus should be on the long-term benefits of advanced space travel.

WAN QUAN/VCG VIA GETTY IMAGES
China also has an advantage shared by the Soviet Union in that it is more tolerant of risk.
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An expensive failure or the injury or death of an astronaut could put an end to space ambitions, but Sagis sees that as less likely to occur in China, where politicians are less concerned with public perception and winning elections.
As far as today's technology goes, China is 10 years behind, says Chris Ellis at the University of Nottingham, UK. But he also points out that the race isn't one linear problem solved from start to finish, but a cluster of hundreds of small challenges – and that China may be ahead in some. For instance, China's Zhuque-2 became the first methane-fuelled rocket to reach orbit in 2023, a feat yet to be matched by SpaceX.
Hear astronaut Helen Sharman and ESA reserve astronaut
Meganne Christian talk about space travel on 10 October
newscientist.com/nslmag

The Zhuque-3 is LandSpace's latest design, which first flew only last year. It is just 66 metres tall, making it more like SpaceX's 70-metre-tall Falcon-9. LandSpace doesn't yet have a rocket along the lines of SpaceX's vast 124-metre Starship, so it still has plenty of catching up to do. But Zhuque-3 will allow the country to rapidly and cheaply launch satellites for a competing Starlink internet constellation.
China's state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation also has the Long March 9 rocket still under development. It will feature a reusable first stage, and there are long-term plans to make the second stage reusable, too. Some variants of another rocket under development, Long March 10, will also be partially reusable, and a test earlier this year recovered the first stage of a Long March 10 at sea.
Ellis says that China may not be as open about its progress as SpaceX is being, perhaps distorting public perception of its capabilities. Chinese companies and SpaceX will be scouring footage of each others' launches for clues and information, he adds, and they may all choose to make deliberately vague disclosures.
“They also don’t want to be sharing what they’ve lost. So I think China might have lost some more [rockets in testing] and they won’t publish it because that’s not what they want the world to see,” says Ellis.

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3 December 2027 | 11 days
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Get closer to Antarctic wildlife – encounter penguin colonies, seals and whales from the water as you explore the Antarctic Peninsula
Expand your understanding of our oceans – learn about ocean patterns and behaviour and how they shape life, and about the latest discoveries transforming our understanding of the natural world
Learn from leading experts – on-board oceanographer and conservation expert Dr Russell Arnott brings science to life through engaging talks and hands-on workshops
Hosted by New Scientist editor Catherine de Lange, an award-winning science journalist who will bring the latest ideas, discoveries and debates in science to life.

Visit us at New Scientist Live
Attending New Scientist Live? Visit us at stand E10, where we'll be joined by Dr Russell Arnott on Saturday 10 October.
Science-led journeys for curious minds
Health
Christa Lesté-Lasserre
A BACKPACK that detects when muscles become fatigued and automatically massages the affected areas seems to help muscles recover better than other approaches.
Chengsong Yu at the Wuhan Institute of Technology in China and his colleagues have developed a backpack-like system that uses electrodes on the skin to monitor electrical activity in back muscles to determine which are fatigued, and how much. Cables move a massage head to where it is needed, while sensor feedback allows the force to be continually adjusted according to fatigue levels, says Yu.
To test the device, 15 healthy adults spent 2 minutes resting, then 2 minutes lifting dumbbells while seated to fatigue the muscles between the shoulder blades.
Everyone wore the backpack during the dumbbell exercise so it could record electrical activity, but only some got the backpack's massage. Everyone else either
HUANG ET AL. 2026/CELL REP.PHYS.SCI.

The backpack uses electrodes to monitor electrical activity in back muscles to determine when they get tired
received a different pre-programmed massage, had heat therapy or rested.
During the exercise, the electrical activity in the participants' muscles fell as they tired. But after the backpack massage, this activity was 2.6 times higher compared with after the pre-programmed massage, indicating greater recovery. It was also 1.9 times higher than after heat therapy, and four times higher than after resting (Cell Reports Physical Science, doi.org/rqv9).
Yu says the team hopes to make the design more compact and test it in a larger group of people.
Mental health
Mary West

THOMAS BARWICK/GETTY IMAGES
AN EIGHT-WEEK course consisting of advice about diet, exercise and sleep was as effective at alleviating symptoms of depression as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), even among people with severe depression and bipolar disorder.
“Each positive change begets another, so [this approach] may be helping people build a healthier platform for their lives, rather than just treating individual symptoms,” says Patricia Dixon at Manatee Associates of Counseling & Assessment, a private practice in Palmetto, Florida, who wasn’t involved in the research.
About 1 in 20 adults worldwide have depression. Therapy can be effective, but a 2021 review of the evidence found that more than half of people don't respond to it. Lifestyle interventions, such as exercise, have shown promise for relieving depression, but most previous trials haven't compared them against established therapies.
To address this, Adrienne O'Neil at Deakin University in Australia and her colleagues studied 267 adults with depression or bipolar disorder who had moderate-to-severe symptoms.
The participants received either CBT or lifestyle advice from accredited dietitians and exercise physiologists, both delivered remotely over eight weeks. The advice included information on mindful eating, finding enjoyable forms of exercise, managing alcohol intake and getting good-quality sleep.
At the end of the eight weeks, a scientist who wasn't involved in the trial rated the participants' depression
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on a standard 60-point scale. It was decided in advance that if the lifestyle advice reduced depression within 1.6 points of that achieved by CBT, the two approaches would be deemed comparably effective.
Finding enjoyable forms of exercise can support mental health
A reduction of 1.6 points is the generally accepted cut-off for detecting a minimal clinically important difference in individuals with mental health conditions, according to the researchers.
On average, the lifestyle intervention led to an 8.55-point decrease, 1.73 points more than the 6.82-point decrease in the CBT group. These were the average results, so the researchers can't be sure that lifestyle advice is routinely superior to CBT, but they do seem to have established non-inferiority, says O'Neil. The effects on self-reported depression were maintained at 16- and 24-week follow-up periods (medRxiv, doi.org/rqrc).
Targeting someone's lifestyle probably reduces their risk of depression through multiple mechanisms, says Ashwini Nadkarni at Harvard Medical School. “Changes in one’s lifestyle can impact depression through several pathways, including inflammation, stress and neuroplasticity, which is the reorganisation of structure, function and connections in the brain,” she says. “Such pathways also include metabolism of feel-good chemicals or neurotransmitters.”
Ahead of further research, Dixon stresses that people undergoing CBT shouldn't discontinue it without consulting their doctor. She also notes that depression can be related to life circumstances, such as bereavement, where lifestyle interventions may be less helpful.
Physics
Karmela Padavic-Callaghan
FOR most objects, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. But if you are swimming upstream in a river of quantum light, the normal rules don't apply. Physicists have demonstrated that breaking Isaac Newton's third law of motion in such a setting can be useful, leading to new ways of controlling quantum light in experiments and devices.
Moving upstream against the current is possible, but at the cost of expending energy. Yi Hu at Nankai University in China and his colleagues wondered whether a passive swimmer that doesn't do so could still move upstream.
The researchers studied upstream swimming in a quantum system, with precisely controlled quantum light used to make both their river and swimmer. They created this quantum light fluid by shooting lasers into a special crystal that was exposed to an
electric voltage, which made the photons interact and form a river-like system. The swimmer was another beam of quantum light, but this one was shaped to form a single, solitary wave.
The action-reaction principle of Newton's third law would have the swimmer and the river experience the same type of force – either repulsive or attractive – similar to how gravity leads to mutual attraction between our bodies and Earth. Earth attracts us downwards, and experiences an upwards attraction towards us.
In contrast, in the experiment, the swimmer experienced an attractive interaction with the river, but the river experienced a repulsive force on the swimmer (Physical Review A, doi.org/hckdsb). This was a “non-reciprocal” interaction that breaks the action-reaction principle. Its net effect was an upstream force on the swimmer, says Hu.
“For me, the biggest takeaway is that active behaviour does not necessarily require an intrinsically active particle or swimmer,” he says.
Mathias Albert at Côte d'Azur University in France says that upstream motion has previously
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been achieved in other quantum fluids of light, but it always relied on creating tiny vortices behind the swimmer in the fluid, with the recoil from their creation pushing the swimmer, so the new experiment demonstrates a fundamentally different mechanism for motion.
We already know that non-reciprocal interactions can be crucial for shaping the motion of “active matter” systems where objects consume energy to move, such as bacterial mixtures, flocks of birds or swarms of tiny robots. But the experiments by Hu and his colleagues focused on an object that doesn’t consume energy, yet still benefited from non-reciprocal interactions. Their work could therefore usher in the creation of a new type of active matter in a quantum system.
Several groups are “exploring how the concepts of active matter can be combined with quantum fluids and photonic systems”, says Albert. He says that, eventually, the ability to control chunks of light so they move in some preferred direction could be useful within devices that use quantum light. Such devices are prevalent in communications or quantum information processing, for example.
Life
FELIX MIKUS

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A SPECIES of amoeba discovered in California can survive and thrive in temperatures that had been considered impossibly high for complex life.
The so-called fire amoeba, Incendiamoeba cascadensis, can reproduce at 63°C
Nicknamed the fire amoeba by the researchers who collected it, Incendiamoeba cascadensis can survive in waters heated up to 70°C (158°F). However, it only retains the ability to eat and reproduce up to 63°C (145°F), and it loses the ability to move around above 64°C (147°F).
According to Angela Oliverio at Syracuse University, New York state, 60°C (140°F) had been considered the barrier for eukaryotes, complex life forms including animals and
plants whose cells have a nucleus.
Simpler organisms can survive at even more extreme temperatures. Methanopyrus kandleri, a single-celled archaeon that lacks a nucleus, can survive at up to 122°C (252°F).
Oliverio and her colleagues collected I. cascadensis from a small geothermal stream within California's Lassen Volcanic National Park. Temperatures in the stream range from 49°C to 65°C (120°F to 149°F), with a pH range of 6 to 7.
At full stretch, I. cascadensis is, on average, about 40 micrometres long and 10 $\mu$ m wide, says Oliverio. "This is over 10 times the size of the average bacterial cell, and closer to the width of a human white blood cell," she says. In such a hot environment, the fire amoeba is the top-order predator, feeding on thermophile bacteria, which are far more common.
The researchers cultured the amoeba in the lab and tested the upper and lower limits of its survival by studying it at 17 temperatures, ranging from 30°C (86°F) to 64°C.
They found there was no growth below $40^{\circ}$ C ( $104^{\circ}$ F) or above $63^{\circ}$ C, with the optimal range between $55^{\circ}$ C and $57^{\circ}$ C ( $131^{\circ}$ F and $135^{\circ}$ F). Above $64^{\circ}$ C, the amoeba rolls up into a cyst to protect itself from the heat. After exposure to temperatures above $70^{\circ}$ C, these cysts are "inactivated" (Cell, doi.org/rqq9).
We should search for even more extreme life forms, says Oliverio. "As far as we know, there is no reason why 63°C is the hard limit." James Woodford
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New Scientist
The truth about social media and mental health
Rethinking the causes of depression
What's behind the explosion in ADHD?
Psychological tricks to boost your happiness
The best ways to tackle anxiety
How to build lifelong mental resilience
And more
New Scientist
The truth about social media and mental health
Rethinking the causes of depression
What's behind the explosion in ADHD?
Psychological tricks to boost your happiness
The best ways to tackle anxiety
How to build lifelong mental resilience
And more
HOW TO THINK ABOUT MENTAL HEALTH
Introduced by BARBARA SAHAKIAN
HOW TO THINK ABOUT MENTAL HEALTH
Introduced by BARBARA SAHAKIAN
HOW TO
THINK ABOUT
MENTAL HEALTH
In this latest instalment of our How To Think About series, we explore the cutting-edge science behind some of the world's most common and complex mental health conditions. Guided by leading experts, we examine what causes conditions like anxiety, depression, anorexia and ADHD. We find out how they can be best treated and, where possible, prevented.
ON SALE NOW FOR JUST £11.99
shop.newscientist.com/HTTA9
Also available to buy at your local newsagent or as a digital version in the New Scientist app


Michael Le Page is a reporter at New Scientist specialising in genetics, biomedicine and the environment
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What I'm reading
Death of the Author
by Nnedi Okorafor
What I'm watching
The third season of Silo.
Great TV
What I'm working on
Yet more stories on El Niño
for an upcoming special
WHAT breakthroughs are you looking forward to in the next 70 years? That's the question we've been asking here at New Scientist as our 70th anniversary nears. For me, there's one clear answer: solar foods, made by turning renewable electricity directly into food.
This is already being done on a small scale. The big challenges are to make it efficient enough to compete with conventional foods on price, and delicious enough that people choose to buy it. When it comes to taste, perhaps the most promising approach is electro-ag, or growing plants via electricity instead of sunlight. In principle at least, all the fruits and veg we love – strawberries, avocados, olives, you name it – could be grown in the dark.
Why would we want to do that? Because farming is the most destructive of all human activities, driving the two major crises we face: global heating and biodiversity loss. And yes, I do mean all farming, including
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organic. Less-intensive forms of farming generally yield less food per land area, which ultimately means cutting down more forests somewhere in the world.
Every year, we have more mouths to feed. So, we'll need to grow more and more food for ourselves and the animals we eat, yet that's going to get harder as global heating drives more extreme weather. The danger is that worldwide yields could start to decline, as happened in Europe this year. That means even more land will have to be cleared for growing crops, resulting in even more greenhouse gas emissions.
In other words, we are likely to end up in a vicious cycle in which global heating driven partly by farming will hit food production ever harder, leading to ever higher farm emissions and yet more warming as we try to compensate for escalating food losses. That's a rather terrifying prospect.
What can we do about it? Some claim the answer is growing crops in closed environments under artificial lights, known as vertical farming. Unfortunately, it's a non-starter, as I reported back in 2015 – and as evidenced by company after company going bust.
The fundamental problem is that plants are terrible at turning sunlight into food. Typically, less than 1 per cent of the solar energy hitting a crop ends up in the food we eat. When sunlight is free, it doesn't matter if more than 99 per cent of it is wasted. But if you are paying for electricity for grow lights, it becomes a massive issue.
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There's also a land-use issue. Yes, layers of plants can be stacked up, but every hectare of growing area requires around 13 hectares of solar panels to power the lights, so overall land use per unit of food increases. This could be avoided by using nuclear power, say, but nuclear power is neither cheap nor going spare.
Hence the interest in turning air, water and electricity directly into food, to reduce the need for land by taking advantage of solar panels being more efficient than plants. Solar panels turn more than 20 per cent of the energy hitting them into electrical energy, and some experimental panels achieve more than double this.

GRAHAM HUGHES/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
The general idea is to convert electricity into a chemical that microbes can feed on, for instance by electrolysis water to produce hydrogen gas. This is what Solar Foods in Finland is doing. Its process relies on one of the many microbes that can use hydrogen as an energy source.
Solar Foods grows these bacteria in vats, also supplying $CO_{2}$ as a carbon source and ammonia as a nitrogen source, along with other essential nutrients. The idea is to use $CO_{2}$ from direct air capture and ammonia made from the hydrogen, making the process nearly carbon neutral if it's powered by solar or wind.
The bacteria are dried to make a yellow powder called Solein that is up to 80 per cent protein. It can be made into protein bars or drinks, or added to foods such as pastries and pasta to replace eggs. Products containing Solein are already available in the US and Singapore, and the company is hoping for approval in the European Union soon, says co-founder Pasi Vainikka.
The company's small demonstration factory is working even better than expected, says Vainikka. "It has scaled really well. It's almost five times more productive than we thought early on." Solar Foods now aims to build a second factory with a capacity of 6400 tonnes a year. It wants to get the cost of making Solein down to a few dollars per kilogram and hopes to sell it for more than twice that, helped by recent jumps in the market prices of protein.
Other start-ups, including Jooules, Air Protein and Aerbio, also aim to produce proteins from microbes fed on gases.
There's no reason to doubt that gas fermentation, as this process is known, can be scaled up hugely – because it already has been. Between 1999 and 2005, a Norwegian company called Norferm made 110,000 tonnes of microbial protein from methane, for fish food. Norferm halted production because it wasn't profitable, but with protein prices rising, several firms are now making microbial proteins this way for use as animal feed. US firm Calysta has built a 20,000-tonne-a-year factory in China, for instance, while Unibio in Denmark is constructing a 50,000-tonne-a-year plant in Saudi Arabia.
The big “but” here is that these companies are using methane from fossil fuel sources. This does have some advantages – such as requiring much less land than, say, growing soya – but all the
fossil carbon ends up in the atmosphere. The issue is that making hydrogen, methane and ammonia from renewable energy costs more, for now at least, so there's little incentive to go green – though Calysta tells me it is looking at using biogas instead.
Gas fermentation isn't the only approach to making food from air. Some researchers think there is a better way. "Hydrogen hardly dissolves at all in water, so it is very difficult for microorganisms to get hold of," says Remko Boom at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. This limits growth, says Boom. Methane is only a bit more soluble. The alternative is to turn $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ into simple carbon compounds that are highly soluble, such as acetate. It takes more energy to produce acetate, but the idea is that this is compensated for by faster growth.
Boom is part of the Acetate Consortium, a project that has shown that some microbes can be grown on acetate. “In principle, we can go to quite large scales,” he says. “So, it could be a significant source of proteins over the world,
"If we can make foods from electricity and air, it will help to limit global heating, protect wildlife and feed the world"
and that would mean that we can decouple this type of food production from the use of land."
The challenge is to turn what emerges from bioreactors into appealing foods, he says. There are two broad routes. One is to use the microbes as a food ingredient with minimal processing, as Solar Foods is doing. Here, the Acetate Consortium has focused on microbes already approved for food use, such as yeast, thus

avoiding the often slow process of getting novel foods approved. (Solar Foods has been waiting five years for approval in the EU.)
The other is to use genetically modified microbes to produce specific proteins, such as the casein proteins found in cheese. Purifying proteins is much more expensive than using entire cells, says Boom, so this approach would work only for high-value products.
There's no reason why microbes couldn't produce carbohydrates as well, he says. "However, we don't expect a shortage of carbohydrates, while we do expect a shortage in protein."
The big question, however, is whether consumers will embrace microbial foods. Even if they do, people won't want to live on microbes alone.
This is where electro-ag could come in. The idea is to grow plants on acetate instead of sunlight.
In 2022, a team including Robert Jinkerson at the University of California, Riverside, made acetate from $CO_{2}$ via electrolysis and used the acetate to grow yeast, mushrooms and algae. Turning sunlight into acetate and then into yeast was almost 18 times as efficient as standard farming, the team calculated. For algae, it was nearly four times as efficient. These
Protein-rich powder made from bacteria, like Solein, could be added to foods
are gigantic leaps in efficiency.
The team envisages growing crops in buildings covered in solar panels. The electricity generated would be used to make acetate on-site that would be supplied to the plants in the dark below via their roots. With technological improvements, the efficiency of plant production could be boosted tenfold, Jinkerson and his colleagues estimated in a 2024 follow-up paper.
If so, we could grow around 10 times as much food per land area, freeing up huge tracts for rewilding. Growing food in this way would also help prevent food shocks caused by extreme weather and allow food to be produced anywhere. What's more, growing food in closed systems can largely prevent pest and disease outbreaks, which reduce yields worldwide.
This all sounds great, but, of course, it isn't so simple. The first obstacle is that plants cannot simply be fed acetate – using it efficiently requires a chemical pathway active only in seedlings. Jinkerson's team is now genetically modifying plants to do this.
There's no fundamental reason to think this couldn't be done. After all, some plants already grow in the dark – many parasitic plants rely entirely on nutrients stolen from other plants. Plants also put a lot of energy into growing structures like stems and leaves that we often don't eat. Ideally, then, we would also modify these plants to get rid of superfluous structures. Again, parasitic plants such as the giant-flowered Rafflesia, which has no roots or leaves, show what is possible.
Another way to go would be to grow plant cells on acetate, rather than entire plants or microbes.
SOLARFOODS
A number of companies are working on making food by growing plant cells in vats. For instance, last year I reported on efforts to make chocolate this way. I tried some of it, too, and it was pretty good.
At present, these cells are grown in culture mediums containing things like sugars derived from conventionally grown foods, so they still have a significant environmental footprint. Deriving the culture medium entirely from renewable energy would change this. It seems to me that a huge array of foods could be made this way, from flour to guacamole.
Yet another option is to cut out living cells altogether. A US start-up called Savor is converting syngas – a fossil fuel-derived mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide – into edible fats to create a butter-like product. The hydrogen and carbon monoxide could be made by renewable electricity instead.
All these different approaches may have a part to play. “We will probably not rely on one particular route,” says Boom.
No one is expecting food made from air and electricity to replace conventional crops and livestock farms anytime soon, not least because it would require more renewable electricity than we currently generate. But if we can make a decent proportion of food this way in the coming decades, it will make a huge difference, helping to limit global heating, protect wildlife and feed the world.
This is why governments should be doing more to encourage solar foods, from funding research to easing regulatory obstacles and helping make them competitive. As individuals, we can all help too by buying them. Perhaps when people get together to celebrate New Scientist's 140th anniversary, everything they eat and drink will have come from thin air.
WHAT are the chances that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity? Until recently, this wasn't a question that most people worried about, yet in recent weeks, the discussion has broken through to the mainstream. You may have seen headlines saying there is a greater than 10 per cent chance that AI could kill all humans, but what does that actually mean?
The honest answer is: very little. No one can produce a scientifically meaningful probability of an AI apocalypse – what people in AI circles call p(doom) – because it isn't a scientific question. That is demonstrated by the fact that leading commentators in the field give numbers for p(doom) from 0 to more than 95 per cent – covering the full probability spectrum tells us nothing.
Does that mean you shouldn't worry about AI taking over the world? I can't answer that question, because it depends on a number we have no reasonable way to derive. What I can do is compare it with other scenarios. Let's start with an easy one: what is the chance of you losing the lottery?
First, as with any question of probability, we have to make some assumptions. I will assume you have actually bought a ticket and that you are playing the UK National Lottery. The odds of winning any prize, from a free play up to the jackpot, are about 1 in 4.9, or 20.4 per cent. That means your odds of losing are 79.6 per cent, which is how the lottery makes money – most players lose.
Let's move to something more serious: what are your odds of dying in a road-traffic collision? According to the World Health Organization,
"Headlines say there is a greater than 10 per cent chance that AI could kill all humans, but what does that actually mean?"
slightly more than 1 million people die in road-traffic collisions each year, so the odds of this happening to you are around 1 million divided by 8 billion, or roughly 0.01 per cent.
That is wrong, of course. The odds for you personally are highly dependent on many factors, including where you live, but we can use the figure as a ballpark. What matters is that the odds are low enough that we don't worry about it all the time, but high enough that we take some precautions to mitigate against the possibility, from wearing seatbelts to looking both ways when we cross the road.
These examples are about individual risks, but an AI apocalypse would happen to all of us. Take climate change, perhaps the most pressing global risk. This is a far more complicated threat to assign a probability to for a few reasons. Unlike losing the lottery or being killed in a road-traffic collision, climate change isn't a binary outcome, but a continuum of warming above pre-industrial levels. It also cannot be calculated from known statistics, because we have only one world and the outcome lies in the future. Finally, the amount of global warming we will experience in 2100 depends on what we do between now and then.
None of this means we can't assess the risk scientifically, however. Using extensively tested climate models, we can produce many "parallel worlds" in order to calculate statistics that show us how different climate policies are likely to result in different outcomes.
According to the latest UN Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report, published last year, under current policies, there is a 100 per cent chance of exceeding 1.5°C of warming this century, a 92 per cent chance of exceeding 2°C and a 20 per cent chance of exceeding 3°C. These figures also come with error bars, but broadly give you a picture of where we are heading. On the strongest assumptions of climate action, the chances of exceeding 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C fall to 79 per cent, 22 per cent and 0 per cent, respectively. Clearly, these are actions worth taking.
Climate change is a relatively slow risk, however, compared with an AI suddenly wiping out the world. A better comparison might be an asteroid strike. We know that asteroid apocalypses can happen –
IAN DAVIDSON/SOPA IMAGES/SHUTTERSTOCK

CLIVE MASON/GETTY IMAGES

Al probably isn't coming for you and probably isn't going to look like the Terminator
just ask the dinosaurs – but what are the risks? To understand that, we need to know a few things: how many asteroids there are, the chance that one impacts Earth and the damage it could cause.
Fortunately, these numbers are all very well quantified. As you might expect, larger asteroids are both easier to spot and more deadly. According to NASA, we have found more than 90 per cent of all asteroids above 1-kilometre wide.
What's more, we are able to predict their future positions with high accuracy, so we know there is either no or an extremely low chance of one hitting Earth within the next century. Chicxulub, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, was about 10 kilometres wide, so the fact that we are essentially safe from anything an order of magnitude smaller and up is good news. The latest estimates suggest that an impact by an object 1 kilometre or larger happens only once every 600,000 years or so.
That isn't to say we are completely safe from asteroids, because there are many more smaller asteroids and so the chances of them hitting are higher. An important size threshold is
140 metres, often dubbed a "city killer". We haven't found all of these, but we are working on it, and the latest estimates suggest asteroids above this size hit around every 20,000 years.
In some sense, asteroids are reassuring, because we can see them coming, but what about the threat of a deadly virus? As we all know too well from our experiences of the covid-19 pandemic, a virus spreading around the world has the potential to appear from nowhere and upend life as we know it. But can we predict the chances of this happening scientifically?
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Looking at the statistics, in roughly the past century, the largest pandemic was the 1918 flu, which killed an estimated 50 million people. The HIV pandemic, which began in the 1980s and is still ongoing, has killed more than 40 million people. Estimates for deaths from covid-19 vary, depending on how figures are counted, but the WHO gives a figure of over 7 million. Various other flu pandemics and regional infectious disease epidemics have killed smaller numbers of people, from hundreds to thousands to millions.
In other words, we should expect the most severe events to happen less frequently, and less severe events to happen more often. This is exactly the same pattern as the asteroid risk. Unlike asteroids, pandemics are much harder to observe before they strike, so their risk estimation is more like climate change, using models to examine a range of scenarios. While estimates vary, a generally accepted figure is that there is a 2 to 3 per cent chance of a covid-19-level pandemic every year, meaning we should expect one every 33 to 50 years.
What I hope I have illustrated is that estimating the probability of an AI apocalypse is unlike any of the other scenarios I have discussed. Whether it is the lottery, a deadly traffic collision or an asteroid strike, we can apply statistics and scientific reasoning to answering the question. For p(doom), there is no scientific framework.
Where does that leave us?
On an individual level, you should stop listening to the numbers being thrown about until they have serious backing – something that AI researchers should be working on constructing, rather than merely prophesying. For policy-makers – who must ideally plan for all scenarios that could lead to harm, even in the face of uncertainty – I would suggest considering regulation, but not rushing to action.
Ultimately though, your risk perception will come down to personal preference. For example, I disagree with Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, who recently said there was a 0 per cent chance of an AI apocalypse by 2030. I would put the figure at some number, likely to be small, but greater than zero, simply because I don't think it is ruled out by the laws of physics. Beyond that, I can't say anything stronger – but compared with risks such as climate change or the next global pandemic, it isn't something that keeps me up at night.

Jacob Aron is a senior editor at New Scientist, writing about maths, physics and technology
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What I'm reading Beyond the Aquila Rift, a collection of short stories from British sci-fi master Alastair Reynolds. Great for dipping in and out of
What I'm watching
ER. Having never seen it before, it has become a daily binge-watch and a pleasure
What I'm working on Thinking about what on earth is going to happen next with AI



J Henry Fair
Bruce Museum
DO YOU have any idea what you're looking at in this image? It might look completely abstract at first glance, but this is, in fact, an aerial photo. The white cobwebby-looking bits are bubbles, the green is algae and the straight lines are the edges of tanks.
This is the Kasslerfeld sewage-treatment plant in Duisburg, Germany, next to the Rhine river, which treats waste water from nearby businesses and homes.
“This is part of my series which illustrates environmental damage in a creative way to engage viewers,” says photographer and environmental activist J Henry Fair.
While waste-water plants help minimise the human impact on rivers, Fair points out that they don't remove all pollutants. For instance, they don't filter out all microplastics. We all have microplastics in our bodies, Fair says, but the ramifications of that aren't understood.
He has been using small aircraft to document the impact of human activity on the landscape, with the aerial view often revealing much that can't be seen from the ground. This photograph is from a new exhibition at the Bruce Museum in Greenwich, Connecticut, A Great Breach in Nature: Aerial photography by J Henry Fair.
“I first photographed it in passing, then the curators became excited about it, so I went back to reshoot it. But then could not find it. So we flew all around Duisburg, and finally saw it as we were giving up the search,” said Fair in commentary accompanying the photo on his website.
The exhibition runs until 7 February, 2027.
Michael Le Page

Book
Hawking
Graham Farmelo
John Murray (UK);
Bantam (US, out 24 November)
IS THERE anything new left to say about Stephen Hawking? The world-famous physicist, who died in 2018, has been the subject of multiple books, documentaries and films, as well as penning dozens of his own tomes. In Hawking by Graham Farmelo, we now have the first authorised biography, and with it access to previously unpublished material from the Hawking family and others. Despite this, his family life is probably the least interesting part of the book – the really compelling stuff is in reassessing his later life.
Part of this is down to a problem common to almost all biographies: people and their families don't tend to do anything interesting before they become famous for the thing you actually want to read about. The first five of 17 chapters cover Hawking's life in extensive detail, thanks to detailed documents written by his parents Frank and Isabel, including an unpublished autobiography by the former. But what do we actually learn?
Unsurprisingly for someone born in 1942, Hawking had a fairly typical middle-class post-war childhood. His father enjoyed home improvement projects and sharing a telescope with Hawking, while his mother was in charge of the bulk of the childcare. The family had a near-miss with a Nazi V1 flying bomb. They grew their own vegetables to supplement meagre rations. All of this is documented and footnoted by Farmelo's impressive scholarship, and a figure like Hawking is certainly worthy of such historical investigation, but a thrilling read it is not.

Material on Hawking's diagnosis with motor neuron disease and his family's reaction to the news that he would likely be dead within a decade unsurprisingly pulls much harder on the heartstrings, as does his growing romance and eventual marriage to his first wife, Jane.
"As the decades wore on, Hawking's scientific ideas were increasingly pedestrian or indeed flat-out wrong"
It is only around a quarter of the way into the book, when Hawking
But yet again, I couldn't help feel that all of this is well-trodden ground, particularly from Jane's autobiography and the film it spawned, The Theory of Everything, in which Hawking is played by Eddie Redmayne.
ELEANORBENTALL/CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES
becomes a jobbing scientist, that my interest began to pick up. The physics landscape of the late 1960s and early 70s was very different to what it is today, and Farmelo does a fantastic job of immersing you in this world.
Black holes, which while still puzzling to us today are mostly uncontroversial, were thought of by many as “the cosmic counterpart of the Loch Ness Monster”, Farmelo writes – meaning Hawking was really sticking his neck out in working on them.
It is here that a distasteful recurring thread first emerges – Hawking's frequent oversight in acknowledging collaborators. At multiple times during his work in the 1970s, Hawking published papers without naming researchers who, under typical scientific norms, should have been co-authors. Farmelo highlights this, but doesn't seek to examine the psychology behind it, despite the fact there
The late Stephen Hawking taught and researched at the University of Cambridge
is a clear throughline with the fame and adoration Hawking sought and enjoyed in later life.
Still, the fact that Farmelo resurfaces these forgotten disputes, once papered over in Hawking's route to fame, as part of an authorised biography should be applauded.
Farmelo's isn't the first revisionist take on Hawking – Charles Seife got there first in 2021 with Hawking Hawking, a book that examined the making of his celebrity and failed to attract a UK publisher, perhaps because it was felt too controversial in his home country. As Hawking's life passes further into history, I imagine we can expect more.
Certainly, Hawking had some truly ground-breaking ideas about black holes in the 1970s, most notably Hawking radiation, the idea that black holes can actually emit particles and eventually even evaporate. We are still yet to detect Hawking radiation, despite most physicists believing that it exists, which is why he never won a Nobel prize – something that Farmelo explains was clearly a sore spot for Hawking.
But after that, when he catapulted to fame with the famously unreadable A Brief History of Time? As the decades wore on, Hawking's scientific ideas were increasingly pedestrian or indeed flat-out wrong.
As Farmelo points out, he frequently lost scientific bets, most strikingly that the Higgs boson didn't exist – a view Hawking advanced when he appeared as himself on The Big Bang Theory in an episode that aired just months before the particle was actually discovered.
Like many of his contemporaries in the 1990s and early 2000s, Hawking was enamoured with string theory and its variant M-theory, a framework for understanding the universe that increasingly appears today to be a dead end.
My own experience of reporting on Hawking's research near the end of his life bears this out – he would frequently come out with grabby-sounding headlines, but physicists would politely tell me off the record that they didn't feel the work was particularly new or detailed enough.
Farmelo goes some way to acknowledging this in his epilogue, but doesn't dwell on why Hawking worked in this way. I think it is probably time we did. Was it down to a lack of original ideas, his penchant for fame-seeking or his difficulties in communicating as his condition worsened, making it harder for him to publish traditional scientific papers? My honest answer, though it feels impolite to say so, is probably all three.
Where does that leave Hawking, rather than Hawking? If you have already followed his life in detail, I'm not sure you have much to gain from this book. If you only know Hawking as a celebrity scientist, Farmelo's book gets you closer to the man underneath, though I would argue Seife did it better. If it is 2042 and you're writing a centenary retrospective of Hawking's life, Farmelo's scholarship is a fantastic place to start – but I'm hoping that between now and then we can continue to decipher Hawking. When speaking of a man who famously held a party for time travellers (an incident strangely not mentioned in the book), I see no reason to constrain my recommendation to the present.
A haunting space animation is a sci-fi challenge to our times, finds Davide Abbatescianni

Film Moonfish Daniel Zvereff Pending release
IN THE song Space Oddity, David Bowie's Major Tom drifts beyond the reach of Ground Control, poised between tech and terror. The protagonist in Daniel Zvereff's animation, Moonfish, occupies a similarly lonely orbit, but one that demolishes the fantasy of space travel, instead depicting work, radiation, quotas and the slow psychological erosion of being almost alone.
Cassius (Morgan Spector), a deep-space miner, is travelling with his companion Vesper (Lucy Liu) to an asteroid. Work is brutal: meet extraction quotas to earn passage home or stay, stranded. When Vesper dies in an accident, Cassius must complete the mission alone, with only her goldfish (below) and the unreliable contents of his mind for company.
Moonfish premiered at the Venice Biennale last month, and cost a mere €200,000 to make. Zvereff turns that constraint into an aesthetic: drawing in stark black and white, building from simple lines, using a boxy frame and sparse environments that
NEW EUROPE FILMS

make Cassius's universe feel both enormous and suffocating. What might have looked unfinished is the right visual language to express alienation, a man reduced to a few fragile marks against a void.
The scientific details of this world are left speculative; science ends up functioning as pressure. So, Cassius's body is another system to fail before the machinery does – prolonged exposure to radiation in space has consequences requiring medication to function. Asteroid mining isn't heroic exploration, but rather the economic logic of using vulnerable workers when tech costs more. This is one of the film's bleakest tropes – and one of its most plausible.
But its most compelling element is the bond Cassius develops with the fish, which, as grief and isolation set in, speaks in Vesper's voice. The exchanges become the film's philosophical core, touching on consciousness, memory, mortality and what distinguishes life from non-life. This could have tipped into whimsy, but Liu endows the fish with an eerie tenderness, while Spector makes Cassius's exhaustion feel physical.
Moonfish is ultimately less interested in whether humans mine asteroids than in who might, and under what terms. Its space setting amplifies existing concerns on Earth: precarious labour, dependence on tech, loneliness and the monetisation of endurance. Like Major Tom, Cassius drifts further from the systems supposed to keep him connected. The difference is that this Ground Control isn't merely distant; it is his employer.
New Scientist recommends

Jacklin Kwan
Features editor
London
When We Cease to Understand the World is a novella that explores what happens when science unravels its own core conceit: that we can understand reality.
Benjamín Labatut's characters are all real scientists, people who

push discovery so far that it can only become dangerous to them. And the picture he paints is ghastly: science will bring people to the point of real enlightenment, but that enlightenment is profoundly anti-human.
He takes impressively few liberties with discussions of science. I know, for instance, that mathematical visionary Alexander Grothendieck – a key character here – revolutionised algebraic geometry before becoming a recluse. I don't know whether his hermetic life was due to him glimpsing the "heart of the heart", the object at the deepest centre of maths. Labatut imagines this revelation as like confronting a beautiful, horrifying, many-eyed angel.
This book will haunt you.

Book
Anxious and Hairy
Judy Wearing
Icon Books
PICK up Judy Wearing's Anxious and Hairy, and you might well wonder at its length: how did she possibly fill 300 pages with... hair? It is a credit to her diligent research, infectious curiosity and personable voice that, on finishing this exhaustive exploration into what the subtitle calls the “evolution and culture of human hair”, I was struck by how much I'd taken for granted.

MARTIN PARR/MAGNUM PHOTOS
From the start, Wearing sets out to win over readers who might be sceptical, taking on the broad (and, arguably, often sexist) sidelining of hair to reveal a “biological wonder” touching “on virtually every aspect of humanity”. Her own fascination dates back to her postgraduate studies at the University of Oxford, and Anxious and Hairy builds on her research into mating behaviour, especially “adaptive benefits of human hair patches”.
Why did we evolve to have tufts in some places, but not others? Even now, research remains limited. As Wearing points out: "Oddly, humans have paid more attention to the traits involved in the mating of mites and birds than the plumage of our own species."
The earliest fossil evidence of hair, she writes, dates back about 245 million years to cynodonts: warm-blooded, reptilian and the ancestors of mammals. They developed fur for insulation, but some hair follicles continued to evolve to produce milk and body odour. Homo sapiens shed their fur coats over time, but not as decisively as it seemed. The so-called naked ape, in fact, has the same number of follicles as our primate relatives, everywhere except on the soles of our feet and palms of our hands; but they produce mostly thin, fine “vellus” hairs.
The thicker, more mature hairs evolved, through sexual selection, to grow in specific locations for highly varied purposes. The hair on our head helps to regulate temperature while also offering
"At Oxford, Wearing ‘ambushed’ her peers with requests for samples from their ‘interesting bits’"

JUDY WEARING
sun protection, explaining the diversity in density, colour and curl. Curly hair, for example, blocks more solar radiation while keeping the head cooler. In men, this balance also involves facial hair, with Wearing exploring the links between bushy beards – which would have dissuaded sexual rivals – and balding.
The science behind our other furry patches is more speculative. Underarm hair might have evolved to broadcast our particular chemical blends, aiding social communication and helping to attract genetically suitable mates, she writes. As for pubic hair, Wearing's preferred hypothesis is that it evolved as a “cheating detector”, trapping fluids and odour, informing mate choice and communicating about sexual activity, though she stresses this is untested.
Even with all the unknowns, Wearing's evolutionary lens makes hair unexpectedly interesting. Culture adds an equally dense layer – and accounts for the titular “anxious”. Having too much hair in the wrong places, or not enough in the right ones,
From how you style your locks to their texture, hair is a complex business
is associated with depression, anxiety and lower quality of life.
Hair styling has been a form of self-expression since the earliest societies, and across the classes. Rameses II, one of ancient Egypt's most renowned pharaohs, used henna to hide greys. And the remains of a woman buried in the 14th century BC showed evidence of 70 coloured extensions.
Even deciding to wear hair up or down is socially mediated, and often political. Women's flowing tresses convey feminine sexuality but may be covered, bound or shorn as a means of control. Hair has also literally been a matter of life and death, writes Wearing. Natural variations, a function of genetics and geography, were used to justify racialised prejudice, abuse and enslavement. Hair texture, an official classification criteria in apartheid South Africa, determined rights and freedoms.
Anxious and Hairy reflects Wearing's careful, wide-ranging research, but the narrative is powered by her enthusiasm for hair and on-the-ground reporting. At Oxford, she made a name for herself, “ambushing” her peers with requests for samples from their “interesting bits”. Later, her quest takes her from a high-end Paris salon to Detroit for a beard and mustache convention.
She discovers that what is signified by our “patches of hair” continues to evolve. Botox, which limits eyebrow movement, may affect our ability to communicate and empathise. Overall, Wearing more than delivers on her promise to transform how we see hair.
Elle Hunt is a writer based in Norwich, UK
The September read for the New Scientist Book Club was a challenging trip to the edges of space-time – but one that most members enjoyed, says Alison Flood

Alison Flood is head of books and culture at New Scientist, and runs the monthly New Scientist Book Club

Book
The Edge of Space-time
Chanda Prescod-Weinstein

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein
THE New Scientist Book Club has been testing its collective brain power in September with Chanda Prescod-Weinstein's The Edge of Space-Time. Subtitled “particles, poetry and the cosmic dream boogie”, this sees the New Scientist columnist and theoretical physicist set out to explain our universe, from the quantum to the inner workings of black holes.
That's a lot to get through, but as Chanda writes in her book, it is worth the effort: "We should bother with physics because it is, in part, how we as a species learn to use our minds." She went further in an exclusive essay for book club members, challenging us to get to grips with the quantum nature of space-time. "Spending time with what feels strange about physics can help prepare us to better reckon with difficult political questions," she wrote. "Given the crises we face – genocides, climate change, attacks on transgender people – we need our critical faculties now more than ever."
Her book, as member Dee55 put it, is a “wild ride”, in terms of both the physics and the in-depth conversation that members have been having about the book over on our Discord channel.
I really enjoyed it. Thanks to Chanda's friendly, encouraging and clear writing, I emerged at the end a little more knowledgeable about physics. I liked how she slipped in references to literature and popular culture to help make her points, as well as how she told us firmly: “This is supposed to be fun, and there is no test at the end.” She reiterated this in our chat: “[Part] of welcoming people into the material is saying, this isn’t something that only... a lone genius can think about. You’re
"We should bother with physics because it is, in part, how we as a species learn to use our minds"
entitled to this as well. This is your universe, too."
Many book club members were also enamoured. Jodie has been “enjoying it a lot, even if it does make my head ache at times” – I think that’s fair, Jodie! – while Dee55 found Chanda’s explanations mind-expanding: “I have [made] periodic attempts to understand Quantum Stuff and always come away fairly befuddled but also intrigued – and this time feels a little different, as if I am not exactly grasping something but perhaps catching fleeting glimpses of it.”
"I've really enjoyed The Edge of Space-time," wrote DavidCl. "It's like sitting down and spending time with a good friend who is way cleverer and more intelligent than I am while she tries to explain what it is she does, why she does it and what drives her onwards."
This book is packed with literary allusions, and with Chanda's strongly expressed political perspectives – not everyone appreciated this. Katita2026 found that Chanda's politics and her subjective takes intruded on the physics a little too much: "Dr. Prescod-Weinstein is an incredible storyteller... [but] as much as I'm enjoying the read, I find myself struggling when she tries to make the physics fit her politics."
This was a question picked over with great sensitivity by book club members. “I do agree that some of the connections are bit forced, but I think the author is trying to show not only how physics says that the universe is, but also how she from a particular background visualises that,” wrote Alan\_P.
All in all, I think this was a (challenging) hit with book club members – on to the next one.
You can find Chanda Prescod-Weinstein's essay and interview at newscientist.com/bookclubextras
---

Exit Party
Emily St. John Mandel
In October, the New Scientist Book Club is embarking on the latest novel from one of speculative fiction's biggest names: Emily St. John Mandel.
The author of flu-
pandemic novel Station
Eleven tackles quantum entanglement and parallel worlds in her latest book, Exit Party, in which our protagonists Ari and Gloria attend a party where some mysterious doppelgangers seem to be appearing.
Book club members can enjoy an extract from the novel's start, which will be available at newscientist. com/bookclubextras from
2 October, and a review from our sci-fi columnist Emily H. Wilson – she calls the book "as elegant and brilliantly executed as fans have grown to expect". There will also be an interview with St. John

Mandel later this month.
You can join the discussion with our Discord community online at bit.ly/4ewuwyo – and sign up to read along with us, if you haven't yet.
Happy reading!
Join New Scientist's free book club
Sign up at newscientist.com/bookclub

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19 September, p 7
From Alistair Fraser,
Whanganui, New Zealand
Terence Tao makes a persuasive case that mathematics is about more than just producing answers: discoveries must be understood, explained and incorporated into a wider body of knowledge. But I wonder whether his concern that AI may produce mathematics faster than mathematicians can absorb it contains an assumption worth questioning.
Why should the future rate of mathematical discovery be limited by the rate at which humans have traditionally been able to process it? If AI becomes capable not only of discovering mathematics, but also of verifying, organising, connecting and explaining it, then human comprehension needn't disappear – but it may cease to be the bottleneck.
Consequently, rather than diminishing, the role of mathematicians could instead shift towards deciding which questions matter, interrogating machine-generated knowledge, recognising significance and determining where discoveries should lead. The greater danger may not be that AI produces mathematics too quickly, but that we try to accommodate a fundamentally new capability within structures developed for an age when human intellectual labour was scarce.
---
5 September, p 20
From Jon Arch, Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, UK
Michael Le Page's article about drugs that prevent muscle loss reminds me of the medication clenbuterol. It is used to treat asthma, but also causes a rapid, remarkable increase in skeletal muscle mass in rats and mice.
Unsurprisingly, some years after this was first discovered, several weightlifters suddenly found that they needed clenbuterol to treat their asthma. It is now banned for International Olympic Committee-tested athletes. Will the same fate await myostatin and activin antagonists?
---
Letters, 19 September
From Eric Kvaalen,
Les Essarts-le-Roi, France
Bryn Glover is concerned that carbon-14 dating may be inaccurate because the amount of this isotope in the air varies, particularly after intense solar storms. He needn't worry: it has long been known that the amount varies, and old wood is exactly the way we get out of this problem.
Over the past several decades, researchers have created a calibration curve for carbon-14 dating by looking at the pattern of thick and thin tree rings in old wood and thereby identifying when the tree lived. Then, by measuring the carbon-14, the calibration is achieved and can be used for other organic material.
---
12 September, p 10
From Jane Giffould,
Halstead, Essex, UK
I was delighted to read that
psilocybin, the psychedelic
compound in magic mushrooms,
may one day alleviate the
numbness and tingling
experienced in peripheral
neuropathy, which I have had
for the past nine years as a result
of chemotherapy. This side effect has been growing for me, while the drugs that are meant to help clear it have had zero effect. If psilocybin works, then bring it on. I just hope it doesn't interact with the countless other chemo-related drugs to generate even more side effects.
---
19 September, p 12
From Ahmad Aljesirawi,
Amman, Jordan
The finding that immune cells may kick-start contractions in childbirth is fascinating. I wonder whether there could be another connection worth investigating.
Research on human attraction has suggested that body odour may sometimes influence mate preference, including possible preferences related to differences in certain immune system genes. In simple terms, we may sometimes be attracted to partners whose immune-genetic profile differs from our own.
Could these immune differences between the mother and father – and therefore between the mother and fetus – have any relationship to the immune signalling described in this new research? For example, could recognition of fetal or paternal antigens contribute, directly or indirectly, to the activation or recruitment of maternal immune cells in the uterus near the end of pregnancy? Could this influence cytokine or chemokine signalling, macrophage activity or the mitochondrial transfer to uterine muscle cells described in the study?
I am not suggesting that this is the established mechanism, but I think it raises an interesting question: could the immune
system differences that may play a role in mate attraction also have a later biological role in pregnancy and the initiation of labour?
---
Letters, 12 September
From Greg Nuttgens, Porthcawl, Bridgend, UK Discussing the effects of flea treatments on the environment, Jens Christian Jensenius suggests that oral methods may not pass through the animal. But some of the chemicals used in worming treatments for sheep and cattle, which are similar to flea treatments, do pass through the gut. They can have a serious effect on dung beetles and other insects, which feed on and break down dung, reducing biodiversity and slowing down the incorporation of dung nutrients into the soil. These chemicals should be banned for both farm and domestic use.
---
From Ulrich Seydel,
Melbourne, Australia
In the search for dark matter, aren't researchers putting the cart before the horse? We know dark matter has gravitational effects, but the rest is, to my knowledge at least, conjecture. Building hypotheses about dark matter and designing experiments based on those hasn't been very effective over the past few decades. Wouldn't it be more productive to stop guessing and continue observing with a wide-open mind?

---
---
Send letters to letters@newscientist.com; see terms at newscientist.com/letters Letters sent to New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY will be delayed
Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity explains gravitational time dilation (12 September, p 22). 2.5 million animals were used in scientific research in the UK in 2025 (19 September, p 32).
THE odds of the bet Jonathan Oppenheim made in 2023 are generous, even at 5000 to 1. But if he wins, it could transform our view of the universe. The physicist is wagering that space-time, and therefore gravity, isn't governed by quantum theory. That swims firmly against mainstream physics, which says gravity must ultimately be quantum, like the rest of the fundamental forces – even if we can't currently work out how.
The wager is playful, but the question is serious, representing perhaps the most intractable puzzle in modern physics. And although Oppenheim is still out on a limb with his “post-quantum” theory of gravity, he is increasingly convinced his peers should take notice – not least because of the complexity of the alternatives. “There are all these people who think that we live in 11 dimensions and there are superstrings and space-time is emergent, looking at this theory and calling it radical,” he says. “But if you step away and think about it objectively, it’s sort of the opposite – it’s the most conservative theory you can have.”
That's not all. Accept the model's perhaps most controversial innovation, and Oppenheim's calculations show that it might elucidate another great mystery of modern physics: the nature of the invisible dark matter that seems to provide most of the gravitational oomph in the cosmos. Might he just be on to something?
For decades now, scientists have been trying to reconcile the two pillars of modern physics: quantum theory, which governs the behaviour of particles and forces on small scales, and Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which describes gravity and determines how the universe works on the largest scales. Each
of these pillars has been extensively stress-tested and stood strong. Yet, according to our current understanding, the two are fundamentally incompatible.
Quantum theory explains the workings of three fundamental forces – electromagnetism and the strong and weak nuclear forces – through the exchange of quantum particles that bind matter together in different ways. But according to general relativity, massive objects generate gravity not by exchanging quantum particles, but by warping space and time around them, causing them to “fall in” towards each other.
Each theory works spectacularly well in its domain: quantum forces explain how the matter that makes up the chair we are sitting on holds together; gravity explains why our bodies fall to Earth with a bump if we miss the chair when we try to sit. But this coexistence breaks down where large scales meet small ones: when quantum particles cross over the event horizon of a massive black hole, for instance, or in the very first instants of the big bang, when our known universe began as a tiny pinprick of mass and energy.
Bringing gravity into the quantum fold has long proved tricky, but a radical approach could be the answer, discovers Leah Crane
The vast majority of physicists think that the most likely solution will be some form of quantum gravity, in which gravity is built out of tiny quantum pieces like the other forces. At extraordinarily small scales, the smoothly warping space-time of Einstein's theory would break down and pixelate, like an image zoomed in too far.
There are many different ways to quantise


gravity and space-time. Perhaps the best known is string theory, which proposes the existence of tiny, curled-up extra dimensions. Another favoured contender, loop quantum gravity, depicts a smooth space-time as emerging from a deeper fundamental network of geometric “grains”.
Oppenheim, a physicist at University College London, isn't sold on any of this. "In quantum gravity, the notion that gravity is describable in terms of space-time breaks down, but still everyone believes it's quantum rather than a theory of space-time," he says. He thinks that, if any successor theory is to reproduce the successes of general relativity, it's crucial it should maintain that theory's picture of gravity as a force acting between masses in a continuous, indivisible space-time. Post-quantum gravity does just that. "If you believe that, fundamentally, gravity is a theory of space-time, this is the theory for you," says Oppenheim.
---
The model and its underlying mathematics are complex, but its goal is simple: start with what we know for sure about the various quantum fields, don't quantise space-time and then see what happens. After years of painstaking work, Oppenheim has found that it actually seems to describe reality surprisingly well, so far. Crucially, gravity matches with quantum mechanics on small scales and behaves as general relativity predicts at larger ones.
In his latest paper, published in July, Oppenheim and Zachary Weller-Davies at the Perimeter Institute in Canada found that certain space-time symmetries that are crucial features of general relativity can also be applied to post-quantum gravity.
This comes at a price, however. If Oppenheim's model is to fit with quantum mechanics, it must adopt certain features of it. In particular, it must allow all objects to be in a superposition of two states at once, resolving to a single state only when the quantum wave functions that describe them “collapse” on measurement.
These states include the position of the object – but herein lies the difficulty. If an object in two positions at once produces a gravitational pull from both, this would indicate that gravity is fundamentally quantum. Yet if only one position creates a pull, this would indicate that gravity “knows” which position the object will end up at once its wave function collapses. That would violate the uncertainty principle, a key and broadly
SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/ALAMY

General relativity says that gravity springs from the way mass deforms space-time
accepted precept of quantum mechanics.
The only way to resolve this, according to Oppenheim, is to introduce a degree of randomness in the form of fluctuations in the coordinates of space-time. This effect is itself small, but its consequences are significant: it would mean that, at least on very small scales, both space and time are unpredictable. The ticks of a clock, for example, would no longer be at exactly equal intervals, but wobble slightly. It is a glitch, if you will, in space-time.
Messing with the nature of time in particular isn't something to do lightly. "When we describe a system, we describe how it evolves in time, so the nature of time is a big question," says Oppenheim. Time becoming random, even in a small way, makes it very difficult to work out how we should describe systems evolving – potentially throwing a wrench into the workings of physics itself.
---
The fact that this randomness doesn't have a known physical source troubles some researchers. “I think he's sort of going around the main thing, which is an explanation of why it is [random],” says Ivette Fuentes at the University of Southampton in the UK.
Oppenheim actually agrees. “I don’t like the fact that there are these unpredictable fluctuations,” he says. “It conflicts with the idea that everything should have a cause and we should be able to physically describe the world.” But something has to give if we are to reconcile quantum mechanics and gravity, he says. “We’ve tried all the easier approaches, and nothing has worked out, so there is a price we have to pay.”
There might be reasons not to discount the existence of the fluctuations. One comes in the shape of a foundational postulate of quantum mechanics known as the Born rule. This is a formula that gives the probability of obtaining a particular value for a quantum system's state when measuring it, and it is central to making the mathematics of wave function collapse work. The rule has held up to a century of scrutiny, but we still don't know where it comes from. In Oppenheim's model, it pops out as soon as the fluctuations in time are introduced, even though it wasn't included as a premise of the model.
What's more, in work published this May, Oppenheim and his colleagues found that post-quantum gravity can reproduce some of the gravitational effects currently attributed to dark matter. Observations suggest that dark matter outweighs normal visible matter in the cosmos by 5 parts to 1 – but we have no clue what it consists of.
“Phantom” dark matter caused by space-time fluctuations might sidestep this massive problem. This part of the model is still in its infancy, says Oppenheim: “We know that there’s an effect that looks like dark matter, but we don’t know if it’s big enough to explain anything or if it has the right properties.” He is now working to nail down the possible connection in more detail.
His peers remain largely unmoved. Carlo Rovelli at Aix-Marseille University in France is one of the originators and leading proponents of loop quantum gravity. Along with string theorist Geoff Penington at the University of California, Berkeley, he struck the bet with Oppenheim back in 2023. The exact terms are that, if gravity is proved to be quantised, Oppenheim has to buy Rovelli and Penington something worth 20p; if it is proved to be not quantised, they are on the hook for an item worth £1000.
Rovelli says the model violates both quantum mechanics and general relativity. "Why should progress be walking back on what we have understood?" he says. "It is like proposing theories in which the Earth does not rotate around the sun."
Not so, says Oppenheim. The model fits perfectly well within general relativity and, by proposing a physical origin for the Born rule, provides a necessary update to quantum mechanics. “It’s not that it breaks quantum mechanics; it actually solves one of the vexing issues that has plagued quantum mechanics since its inception,” he says.
A third view is that you simply can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. "When you quantise gravity, and you quantise space-time, you're also breaking general relativity," says Fuentes. "I think you have to break both relativity and quantum mechanics to unify them."
Reality will ultimately be the decider. There aren't that many models of non-quantised gravity, and the selection is even sparser if you get rid of those that aren't testable. That makes Oppenheim's theory noteworthy, says Daniel Carney at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California: he likes that there are ways to check its predictions. "This model, in my mind, is mostly useful as a test case – it says, what if we're wrong? Yeah, gravity is probably quantised like electromagnetism, but what else could happen is a shockingly difficult question to answer," says Carney. "For that, it's incredibly valuable."
Already, observations are placing some constraints on the model. For example, if it is correct, there should be random gravitational waves with a particular range of frequencies and strengths that permeate the entire universe, emanating from random space-time fluctuations early in cosmic history. Gravitational wave observatories, such as the US-based Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory, measure ripples in spacetime caused by the movements of highly massive objects such as black holes, and have also begun to make measurements of this weaker “stochastic gravitational wave background”.

THE VIRGO COLLABORATION/CCO 1.0
Results so far have greatly constricted this background signal's possible properties, likewise constricting the possibilities for post-quantum gravity. Meanwhile, laboratory experiments using ultracold atoms to measure gravity are providing constraints to the model at smaller scales. "There's not a lot of wiggle room, not a lot of ways to hide if there are problems with it," says Oppenheim.
---
Ultimately, what's needed are more direct experimental tests – and recent improvements in theory and quantum sensing technologies mean they could be on the cards. The first such test would be to place a tiny mass, such as a nanoscale crystal, into a quantum superposition of two locations at once. Researchers would then try to entangle it with another crystal so that measuring the position of one instantaneously affects the result of measuring the other. Entanglement is a purely quantum effect, and so if gravity isn't quantum, it would disrupt any entanglement between the two masses. Measuring any entanglement would immediately rule out post-quantum gravity, along with all other classical models of gravity.
A second test is to subject the superpositioned mass to a gravitational field and measure its response many times in a row. If gravity is quantum, the measurement should be about the same each time. If it is
The Virgo
gravitational wave
detector measures
ripples in space-time



Jonathan Oppenheim (left) and Sougato Bose examine an experiment (below) that could help test post-quantum gravity
post-quantum, the tiny fluctuations in space-time should create inconsistencies between different runs of the experiment.
The same set-up can also be used to measure how long such a superposition lasts. “If classical gravity is coming from a quantum object, that really spoils the superposition of the mass in two places at once,” says experimentalist Sougato Bose, also at University College London – the mass will quickly collapse to a single location. Carney compares it to Schrödinger’s cat, the classic thought experiment in which a cat is trapped in a box, in a superposition of being both alive and dead until the box is opened and the cat is observed. “Instead of the cat being alive and dead, the cat will just become alive or become dead on a short time scale,” he says – with, in this instance, the cat being Oppenheim’s model.
University College London has just announced a new organisation, the David Potter Institute for Quantum Information and Spacetime, headed by Bose and Oppenheim and dedicated to testing theories such as post-quantum gravity. Actually doing the experiments is still extraordinarily fiddly, and it could be a decade or more until researchers have answers. “If we thought that gravity was quantum beyond question, then it wouldn’t make sense to even do these experiments,” says Bose. “But having these alternative
"YOU HAVE TO
BREAK BOTH
RELATIVITY
AND QUANTUM
MECHANICS TO
UNIFY THEM"
theories is a very strong motivation to test this."
“Worth testing” is, of course, not the same as “likely to be true”. Until the tests are actually performed, Oppenheim’s post-quantum gravity will probably remain on the fringes. “Does anybody really believe that the world could work the way he’s proposing? I’m sure some people do, but they would be hard to find,” says Carney.
Oppenheim sticks with the defence that his model requires far fewer assumptions, fewer tweaks to the existing models of the cosmos and the quantum world, and fewer carefully selected values and variables than many, or even most, quantum gravity models that have yet to gain experimental support, such as string theory.
Fuentes thinks that is a valid point. "We've had the last decades of just theory and theory and theory, mathematics without any real connection with what can be tested," she says. "Yes, [Oppenheim] has a crazy idea, but he proposes an experiment. This is the sort of science that we should be doing at the moment."

Leah Crane is a senior reporter at New Scientist, covering topics ranging from private space flight and cosmology to quantum mechanics
We have long expected animals to move to cooler habitats as climate change bites, but it now appears that many are actually doing the opposite, finds Aisling Irwin
CLIMATE change was meant to mean big trouble for Bicknell's thrush. One of North America's rarest songbirds, the species was already struggling with mercury poisoning and habitat loss. As the bird's mountainous home warmed, ecologists worried that a new threat would move in: the American red squirrel, a mammal that will supplement its seed-rich diet with songbird eggs and nestlings. The squirrels are found downhill of the thrushes and were expected to move up the mountainside as temperatures rose.
But that didn't happen. Toni Lyn Morelli, an ecologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, discovered that the squirrels have actually begun moving downhill. It is good news for songbird conservationists, but puzzling news for ecologists more generally. The squirrels seem to be heading the wrong way.
They aren't alone. In some locations, as many as half the species studied are defying the prediction that they would shift to cooler places. The discovery is making it difficult for conservationists and land managers to protect vulnerable species. Working on the assumption that the species would move away from the heat, they have been conserving or buying up cooler areas they assumed would become climate refuges. But what if they are protecting land in the wrong places?
"I am left with more questions than answers about what is the best pathway to safeguard things in the face of climate change," says Inna Osmolovsky, an ecologist at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Researchers are now going back to basics in order to understand what is going on, and to devise conservation strategies that are a better fit for our warming world.
For most of the past 30 years, ecologists have assumed that climate change-driven range shifts would be largely one way: into colder places. The first good evidence for this came in 1996 when Camille Parmesan, then at the University of California, Santa Barbara, demonstrated that the Edith's checkerspot butterfly in western North America was quitting the increasing warmth of its southern, low-elevation habitats for the cool of higher and more northerly climes.

GREGORI SAAVEDRA
By 2003, Parmesan, along with Gary Yohe at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, was even quantifying the rate of the shift. Using data from hundreds of animal and plant species, they calculated that, every decade, species were moving an average of about 6 metres uphill or 6 kilometres towards the poles.
That rate was later revised upwards. In 2011, with more data to work with, ecologist Chris Thomas and his colleagues at the University of York, UK, calculated that species were, on average, actually moving 11 metres further uphill or 17 kilometres poleward each decade. The scientists also found a link between the degree of warming particular species experienced and the size of their shift –
the first evidence, they said, of a causal link.
The study caused a stir, but as Thomas pointed out at the time, within the data lay a more complex story. Although species from alpine chipmunks to British butterflies and from red foxes in the Arctic to boreal spruce and pine trees were moving to cooler places, a quarter of species tracked in the analysis were heading downhill, not uphill, and more than a fifth were shifting towards the equator rather than the poles.
With additional data gathered since then, Morelli says it now seems that “less than half of the species” have moved into cooler environments. The big question is: why are so many species apparently travelling the wrong way?

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The answer is, in a word, complicated. A particularly baffling observation is that seemingly similar animals living in the same habitat are responding to climate change in completely different ways. For instance, about 20 years ago, Steve Beissinger, an ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues climbed up and down 3000 metres of elevation in Yosemite National Park, California. They wanted to discover how the ranges of 28 small mammal species have shifted since being recorded in the early 20th century – when the national park was about 3°C cooler – by a far-sighted biologist named Joseph Grinnell.
“Half the species showed movement upslope, but the other half didn’t move at all,” says Beissinger. “Two shrews had expanded their ranges downslope.”
Beissinger then moved on to studying birds in the Sierra Nevada mountains in the western US. "And then it got a lot more puzzling," he says. He and his colleagues discovered that discrete populations of the same bird species were responding differently to climate change. The white-headed woodpecker, for instance, was moving uphill in the north of the Sierra Nevada, downhill in the middle and nowhere in the south of the mountain range.
“We scratched our heads about this for a long time,” says Beissinger. They eventually concluded that temperature change alone is too crude a predictor of animal behaviour.
They now realise that changes in snow and rainfall are important, too. For instance, although shifting downhill may involve moving into an area that is uncomfortably warm, heading uphill might mean moving into one that is uncomfortably wet. If the cost of all that precipitation is deemed too high, a population might move downhill as the least bad option.
STONE NATURE PHOTOGRAPHY/ALAMY
It might seem obvious that you need to take precipitation into account when predicting how species will move, admits Morelli. Ecologists are aware that “multifarious complications” affect where a species chooses to live, says Thomas, but they were trying to keep their forecast models simple – and factoring in rain and snow makes them much more complicated. Precipitation changes are “all over the place”, says Morelli. “It doesn’t have the same clear direction [as temperature].”
This isn't the only factor that can complicate predictions, as Beissinger found in his next study. The Mojave desert, in the south-western US, is home to a riot of small mammals – voles, chipmunks, deer mice, kangaroo rats and the like – as well as 200 species of bird. It has warmed by $2^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ over the past century and can sometimes top $45^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ (113°F). Beissinger found that, as expected, bird populations there were “collapsing”. But the mammals were doing just fine.

MINDEN PICTURES/ALAMY
The reason, he and his colleagues discovered, was that the mammals shelter from the fierce heat of the day in their burrows, while the birds air-fry overhead. “The lesson we took away from that was that even at the same location, species could be responding differently to the same level of climate change,” he says. It is all to do with their actual exposure. The models were going to have to get a lot more complicated if they were to accurately predict how ranges are shifting.
So, biologists have begun throwing everything they can at the problem. They have built massive databases of traits, in which they have collected all kinds of details about how organisms behave, from mobility to dietary preferences. They have studied range shifts all over the globe. The holy grail, says Monte Neate-Clegg, an ecologist at the University of California, Davis, is that somewhere in the data will be clues to a formula that can successfully predict where any particular species or community will move, and so indicate where it would be best for humans to intervene.
The approach seemed promising, says Beissinger. In particular, there was an expectation that organisms that live fast and die young would be among the most successful at shifting upwards and polewards. Such species produce a lot of offspring and


White-headed woodpeckers (above) respond differently to climate change depending on where they live; Ord's kangaroo rats (left) can escape heat in burrows; Edith's checkerspot butterfly (below, left) was an early indicator of species moving to cooler habitats; American red squirrels (below) are moving downhill in search of food
RICK & NORA BOWERS/ALAMY


BLICKWINKEL/ALAMY

tend to tolerate a wide range of conditions, such as temperature and wetness, he says. They are “better at pushing at the margins of their ranges”.
To test this expectation, Beissinger and his colleague Eric Riddell at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill analysed all the studies that have tried to explain range shifts using behavioural traits. But they concluded that no reliable predictions can be made using such data.
“They don’t really work super well,” says Lise Comte, an ecologist at the California-based non-profit organisation Conservation Science Partners. “And so, the community overall is a little disappointed.”
To put it another way, researchers are still no nearer to identifying that holy grail formula. In fact, there are so many complicating factors influencing an individual species' behaviour that there may be no simple way to predict how it will respond to climate change – even though, across all species, you can detect that upwards and polewards signal.
Osmolovsky, who studies the movement of alpine plants in Australia, thinks more attention should be paid to how climate change alters interactions between species: "We're thinking [about] just this one plant that is doing its own thing in response to climate change," she says. "But, actually, whole communities are responding and maybe the interactions are also impacted."
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For example, research from last year showed that microbes that are typically harmful to plants can become mutualistic in more stressful environments. Osmolovsky says that “unpredictable friendships” like these can make life easier for a species even as its climate warms.
Beissinger reels off the list that scientists now need to consider when trying to predict how a species will respond to climate change. "Competition, disease, predation and human impacts like land-use change," he says. Moreover, he adds, species may reduce or even eliminate the need to move by changing their behaviour – breeding earlier in the year, for instance.
Although recognition of this complexity makes it hard to predict how a species will respond to climate change, Neate-Clegg says there are two practical things that can still help conservationists.
The first is to connect habitats together, so that organisms can move up, down, north, south or even east or west, according to how they can best cope with climate change. “The worst thing you can do is fragment these landscapes that species are trying to shift through,” he says.
The other is to enhance the complexity in a habitat, so that species have options for adjusting their behaviour as the climate changes. This means “not just having a forest, but having a complex forest that might provide more options for buffering”, says Neate-Clegg. Lots of different species and ages of tree, for example, mean all sorts of options for shade.
Beyond this, recognising that there is no universal model that can predict each species' response to climate change also reminds ecologists that successful conservation efforts often require a detailed study of the species in its local habitat.
“Conservation has always been this multi-pronged approach of ecosystem protection by protected areas and then species-level conservation. And I think both avenues could work,” says Neate-Clegg.
Taking this approach can even help explain why the American red squirrels didn't move into the territory occupied by Bicknell's thrush. It turns out that a fabulous new habitat has emerged further downhill. For decades, logging and acid rain had wiped out the spruce trees that once grew there and that produce the squirrels' main food source, cones. Today, both of those pressures are much reduced, and spruce trees are growing at lower elevations again.
In the end, says Morelli, “they are just this little mammal trying to make do in feet and feet of snow”. Climate change may seem to offer incentives for the squirrels to head uphill, but the best answer for them is to move in the opposite direction, and follow the cones.

Aisling Irwin is an
award-winning journalist
focusing on the environment

CAMERA PRESS/ANDREW CROWLEY
Therapy and drugs are the go-to options for improving mental health, but psychologist Kimberley Wilson tells Olivia Goldhill why what we eat also has a crucial role to play
D IET is key to healthy living but, strangely enough, the topic rarely comes up in conversations about mental health. Instead, we tend to focus on medication and therapy, and largely ignore the food that we eat – which, according to psychologist Kimberley Wilson, is a huge mistake.
After working at what was once Europe's largest women's prison, HM Prison Holloway in London, she became keenly aware of the powerful influence diet has on mental wellbeing. She saw how, deprived of a balanced diet and nutrients, it was so much harder for prisoners to control their emotions. And she realised that proper nutrition is just as important for managing mental health as medication and therapy.
She spoke with New Scientist about why nutrition is the foundation of brain health and how the foods we eat can treat mental illness.
Olivia Goldhill: How does nutrition influence brain health? I think most people understand that food is important for our bodies but are less familiar with its influence on our minds.
Kimberley Wilson: Mental health is an emergent property of a physical organ. In the same way that your heartbeat is an emergent property of your heart, all of these things that we think about as mental wellbeing are an emergent property of your brain. If we want a coherent psychological experience, we should be thinking about the physical health and structural integrity of the brain as our starting point – and nutrition changes our brain's ability to process thoughts and emotions, just like it influences the health of any other organ.
Why do you think we so rarely consider this mind-body connection? I think it is Cartesian. Four hundred years ago, René Descartes made the argument that there is an essence of the self that is separate from and superior to the physical body. It created such an impression on medicine and then psychiatry that we started approaching mental health as a neck-up intervention – the rest of the body is completely irrelevant.
The brain is also out of sight. Weightlifting changes your body very quickly, often within a few weeks. But because you can't physically see changes to your diet, exercise and sleep in your brain, you have to wait for a subjective shift that can take six months.
There is also a bit of egocentrism. We think of ourselves as deeply complex individuals. We don't like the idea that malaise might be improved by a change of diet and a good night's sleep. We seek either a complex pharmacological compound or a deep-probing-type therapy to get to our core complexities.
Obviously, I provide some of that, too. But we also know that profound changes can be made with nutritional and lifestyle interventions. I see that in some prisons, where randomised controlled trials showed that changes in nutrition reduced violence. That is some of the starkest, clearest evidence that the brain is a physical organ, and if you want it to function well, you need to feed it properly.
You worked in Holloway prison and young offenders institute up until 2013 – it is now closed, but was then the largest women's prison in Europe. I imagine your experience there shaped your approach to mental health.
In prison, you are working with a very traumatised and traumatising population. The focus is on the emergent behaviours – this person is angry, they are aggressive, they are dangerous, they are frightening – and most people aren't thinking about the machinery from which those behaviours are emerging.
But we are dealing with a group of people who have experienced extreme deprivation on all levels: emotional neglect, often abuse, but also severe nutritional, and often substance-related, harms to the brain.
We have a justice system predicated on volition: you know right from wrong, and if you choose to do the wrong thing, then you deserve the consequences. But that is based on the assumption that the decision-making machinery is working properly.
This is where we get into almost philosophical grounds with prison violence. If I get into a car and crash, and I didn't know the brakes were shot, am I entirely responsible for the accident? Or are there mitigating circumstances that need to be taken into consideration?
In terms of brain health and prison violence, we see that when you improve nutrition, violence drops by 30 per cent. These were supplement trials of broad-spectrum micronutrients, so vitamins, minerals and, in some cases, omega-3.
Nobody wants to let people off scot-free, but I think we need to be thoughtful about the assumptions we make about behaviour, not just in prison, but across the board.
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There is lots of evidence around the physical health of either the whole body or the brain impacting mental health. We have good data showing that 1 gram per day of omega-3 – where 60 per cent is EPA [a fatty acid found in omega-3] – can reduce depression. It is thought that inflammation drives depressive symptoms for some people. Omega-3s are the necessary precursors of inflammation's “off switch”.
Then there is data looking at brain trajectories and psychopathology. Brain scans have shown us that if the brain was smaller than expected in the prefrontal and parietal lobes, which manage higher-level thinking, that was associated with increased risk of psychopathology. We are talking about the physical structure of the brain as a risk factor.
Iodine deficiency in the perinatal period and early infancy, according to the World Health Organization, is the leading cause of preventable brain damage worldwide and is associated with low IQ.

RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Nutrition has a direct influence on inmates' mood, emotions and behaviours
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Hear more from
Kimberley Wilson at this
year's New Scientist Live.
On 10 October, she will
explore how to build
lifelong brain health, delving into the key nutrients that support neural development, cognitive performance and emotional resilience.
For more information, visit newscientist.com/nslmag
Some of the most robust data on depression prevention is around exercise. But we rarely think about this because [most people] think that mental health needs to be addressed with either psychotherapy or drugs.
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Yes, and I think the old-school psychiatric approach of using drugs to alter brain chemicals is just a tiny piece of the conversation. These compounds – serotonin or dopamine – are important for regulating mood, but they are also made from nutrients.
If you are anaemic, you aren't going to have good serotonin production because the brain needs iron for this process, and we see associations between iron deficiency and mood disorders like depression. One of the simplest fixes for a mood disorder is to check, are you anaemic? If so, we can correct this with either diet or iron supplementation. Then, we have improved your fatigue, your flatness of affect, and you haven't had to go to therapy for six months.
How do you think data on nutrition and mental health should inform diagnosis and treatment? What needs to happen is a better assessment process. Rather than a binary “are you depressed, are you not”, what we want to ask is, what is driving your depression? Is it your childhood trauma, in which case, let’s fast-track you to in-depth therapy. Is it relationship stress? Is it workplace demands? Is it that you have eaten only two chocolate muffins in the last four days? That isn’t going to help you feel good. If we intervene there first, then we can make a difference in the way that you feel very quickly.
So, if you lived off only ultra-processed foods, for example, what would happen to the brain? The brain is the hungriest organ in the body. We need to supply it with the nutrients it requires so that we can feel good, focus, have goal-directed behaviour – all of that stuff.
A single doughnut isn't going to meaningfully hurt your brain. But the more your diet is made of these foods, the lower your nutrient status. You will be lower on things like [vitamin] B3 and B12, omega-3, selenium and zinc. That is a problem, because your brain is then depleted of the things it needs to function well.
We've talked about the nutritional effects of diet on the brain, but I'm also curious about the sociological importance of eating. Are there health benefits to sharing our meals with others? I think so. I think cooking and eating together is part of what makes us human. Across human evolution, eating together was a necessity, because you couldn't go out and hunt and gather for yourself. It was a group process: I share what I have, and you share what you have.
There is lovely data on how we feel more trusting of people when we eat together, and it's not simply that you eat with people you already trust. There is something about eating that builds those relationships, and I think that has to do with the physiology of eating. You have your fight and flight, and then you have your rest and digest. You need to be calm, you need to feel safe [and] you need to feel like you are with people who are trustworthy, so that you can drop your guard and digest your food.
You just had a baby. How has pregnancy and the postpartum period influenced your understanding of the importance of nutrition, if at all? I took the position that I am building a brand-new brain from scratch. So, it was important for me to think about what I am supplying that brain with in order for it to develop optimally.
I was comparing prenatal supplements with research on what nutrients are important for brain development and just finding them massively wanting. Basically, no prenatal

ALEXANDRKOLESNIKOV/GETTY IMAGES
A diet rich in vitamins and omega-3s can improve brain health

PAUL FAITH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
vitamin has enough of the nutrient choline, simply because choline salts are bulky. Though we know that choline can do the same thing that folic acid does in reducing the risk of neurological congenital conditions, and we see that choline supplementation during pregnancy improves attention in children at age 7. I am breastfeeding, and those nutrients become present in your breast milk. So, I take a choline supplement, to make sure that I am getting enough for my son.
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I would probably say increasing your intake of omega-3 – ideally by eating at least one portion of oily fish a week, and vegans or vegetarians may want to take a supplement. That is where some of the strongest data is, showing reduced risk of depression and suicidal ideation, we think as a function of reduced neuroinflammation. Given that hardly anybody in the UK is getting enough fish, we can assume that a good number of people would be helped by just making that one change.
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When I first started talking about this research, I was speaking to a colleague and he just laughed at me. It was quite disappointing, and he just said, well, I have never heard of it.
It's hard to tell if things are getting better because I don't know whether I'm now in a bit of a bubble. I hope the old approach is being pushed out by more open-minded, grounded-in-the-new-research, optimistic individuals saying, actually, the brain is a physical organ and there is something we can do to improve mental health.

Olivia Goldhill is a features editor at New Scientist focused on biomedicine, health and neuroscience
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1 Surgical opening in the large intestine (9)
6 Type of polyhedron (5)
9 Central walkway of an aeroplane, say (5)
10 Method of chemical analysis (9)
11 Unit of volume (10)
12 \_\_\_\_syndrome, genetic condition that primarily affects girls (4)
14 Instrument that measures current (7)
15 Y (7)
17 Term for a bone, meaning "breast-shaped" (7)
19 Concerning the malposition of an organ (7)
20 Point of intersection (4)
22 Egg-laying organ (10)
25 Fleming, say (9)
26 Newton, perhaps (5)
27 Hardened synthetic resin (5)
28 Minor chess piece in the a or h file (5,4)
DOWN
1 Abyss (5)
2 Historical US nuclear development base (3,6)
3 Means by which new varieties of living things evolve (10)
4 Anomalous or atypical data point (7)
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6 Strategy; blueprint (4)
7 Diacetamide or phthalimide, for example (5)
8 Consisting of only stable single fundamental particles (9)
13 Numerical data (10)
14 Combine or treat with NH₃ (9)
16 Information fed into a system (5,4)
18 Means of separating or keeping distinct (7)
19 Tough, fibrous grass (7)
21 As a result of (3,2)
23 Nerve agent (5)
24 Humphry \_\_\_\_, British chemist and inventor (4)
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1 LSD could soon be approved as a treatment for anxiety. In what year did the US make it a controlled substance, putting a stop to its early use in psychiatry?
2 Which is the weakest of the four fundamental forces?
3 How many animals are thought to be used in biomedical research around the world every year?
4 The tiger cat of South America is also known by what name?
5 How many columns are there on the gable end of the Parthenon in Athens?
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The goal is to divide the grid into non-overlapping rectangles. Each rectangle must contain exactly one number, and have an area equal to that number. For example, a 6 should have a rectangle covering six squares. | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | Answers to this week's puzzles on page 47
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Why hasn't evolution reintroduced gills in the land-based mammals that returned to the sea?
Graham Smith
Melbourne, Australia
Evolution cannot make fundamental changes in a single step, no matter how logical it may sound to a “designer” (such as adding gills to a marine mammal). Evolution proceeds via small steps, each of which must add to the individual’s chances of survival. If lungs plus gills had a significant advantage, then it is more likely that gills would have been retained during the transition to lungs.
SIEGFRIED KUT TIG/IMAGEBROKER.COM/ALAMY

This week's new questions
The fact that gill function wasn't maintained by evolution during the transition to air-breathing animals is probably because the efficiency of transferring oxygen from air to blood is hugely more efficient than transferring oxygen from water to blood. The higher rate of oxygen intake enables a much higher metabolism of air-breathing animals, and this extra oxygen allows for fast animals (seals), much more complex brains (dolphins)
“Evolution used a much simpler tactic: it came up with ways that let the animals stay underwater for longer”
Cats v dogs Humans have domesticated both cats and dogs. Why do dogs generally follow instructions, whereas cats largely ignore them? Robert Morley, London, UK
It is unlikely that gills could support any warm-blooded animal, because the transfer rate of oxygen is partly determined by the concentration of oxygen in the surrounding fluid, which is around 7 parts per million in water and 210,000 parts per million in air.
and much larger bodies (whales).
Watching the big bang Will we ever build a space telescope that can see as far as the big bang? Mark Smith, Lytham St Annes, Lancashire, UK
builds on what already exists, and prefers to take the easy, low-cost way.
Swim bladders allow fish to effortlessly float at different depths. Bony fish developed their swim bladders from ancestors that used air sacs. In environments where oxygen was lacking, the fish gulped air into those sacs. Some fish like eels still have them. Sharks emerged before air sacs originated, and hence they don't have swim bladders.
After the fish started gulping air, their oesophagus gradually widened until it became an air sac. That, in turn, was then modified to become a swim bladder. The sequence shows the gradual progression that evolution uses to build new
organs. Land animals developed their lungs from the same air sacs. That was (relatively) easy: just modify the sacs so they can absorb oxygen into the blood.
However, converting lungs back into gills that can let water stream through them would be very difficult, and the intermediate steps might well lead to an evolutionary dead end. The same arguments preclude the creation of brand new gills, unless some existing organ can be converted into them. Instead, evolution used a much simpler tactic: it came up with ways that let the animals stay underwater for longer, and that let some of them even sleep there without drowning.
Note that other land animals that have returned to the water, like ichthyosaurs, did not develop gills
Why do dogs generally follow instructions, whereas cats largely ignore them?
either: they all kept their lungs.
That implies that the creation of gills, either from lungs or ex nihilo (out of nothing) is difficult indeed.
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What is the fastest way to empty a full jug of water: tipped upside down or poured at a particular angle? (continued)
Mike Follows
Sutton Coldfield, West Midlands, UK
Tip the jug too little and the water flows slowly; tip it too far and the flow becomes a series of glugs. Somewhere between the two should be an optimum. But the optimum will change as the jug empties and the water level falls, so the fastest pour should involve continually adjusting the angle.
The reason is that the opening has two jobs: water must leave while air enters to replace it. When the jug is inverted, water can block the opening until the pressure inside drops enough for air to force its way back in as a bubble. Another surge of water escapes and the cycle repeats.
At a suitable angle, water can flow through the lower part of the opening while air enters continuously through the upper part. The flow need not be smooth – what matters is that air and water can pass through the opening simultaneously rather than taking turns.
Some containers solve the problem with a second opening or vent. Air can then enter by one pathway while water leaves by another, allowing the main opening to be devoted entirely to water. Birds exploit a similar principle: air sacs help maintain largely one-way air flow through their lungs, helping meet the high oxygen demands of flight.
Herman D'Hondt
Sydney, Australia
It's all because of a simple
fact about evolution: it

Want to send us a question or answer? Email us at lastword@newscientist.com Questions should be about everyday science phenomena Full terms and conditions at newscientist.com/lw-terms
So, for an unvented jug, the trick is to keep water flowing out without shutting off the air flowing in.
AS WE JOIN THE GREAT THEORETICAL SCIENTIST, HE IS DEEP IN THOUGHT. SO STILL, QUIET AND FOCUSED THAT HE MIGHT ALMOST BE ASLEEP.

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There are optical illusions and audio illusions. Is there also such a thing as an olfactory illusion? (continued)
Nicqui Yazdi
Via email
To answer your question – YES, I have this! It's a weird glitch I have had for many years now. I have a tremendous recall for scents, and certain images, sounds or even just hearing someone talk about something or seeing a picture on television or in a book can trigger smells for me that seem to be incredibly real.
I have literally run around my house in the middle of the night looking for a fire after a news segment on television, or smelled faeces after hearing an advert for chicken manure!
This happens to me quite often, a few times a week probably. It involves all sorts of things, from the smell of bread in a television advert for a bakery to just any old random thing in a book or on a poster. The smell only lasts briefly,

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mostly just a few seconds, but it is so real.
Most of the time they are pleasant smells, and it often makes me laugh, especially when I realise that, of course, this is just my incredible ability to recall smells!
I would like to know what this sort of hallucination is called, as I haven't been able to find anything about it. I once contacted the Oliver Sacks Foundation about it, and Sacks's personal assistant of more than 30 years just called it my own "olfactory superpower" in her correspondence. I don't mind at all, but I would love to know if there is an official name for this.
Bruce Denness
Niton, Isle of Wight, UK
Whereas Philip Martin's random smell illusions are accompanied

AH, IT SEEMS HE
ACTUALLY IS ASLEEP.
AND THAT'S FINE.
SCIENCE IS HARD
AND NOT EVERY DAY
CAN BE A SUCCESS.
WE WILL COME BACK
ANOTHER TIME.
by recollections of associated places from his past (19 September), mine were always the same smell and accompanying sounds and they occurred in the same place: a previously derelict manor house that I had altered considerably during its restoration. The house had three main floors, but it had a small, single-room, fourth-floor folly, which I used as an office.
The smell illusion began in the office within weeks of our moving in and was always the same: suddenly the sweet smell of Erinmore Mixture pipe tobacco would drift up the stairs to the office, accompanied by the sound of clumping footsteps below. The footsteps never went beyond the third floor – if their owner had been familiar with the previous layout, he may have been confused by my having relocated the fourth-floor staircase.
It is interesting that Martin refers to the brain generating phantom smells. However, mine were often witnessed by others, thereby extending the illusion beyond my own brain.
23 Ricin, 24 Daly
19 Esparto, 21 Due to,
16 Input data, 18 Divider,
13 Statistics, 14 Ammoniate,
6 Plan, 7 Imide, 8 Monatomic,
3 Specification, 4 Outline, 5 Ytterby,
DOWN 1 Chasm, 2 Los Alamos,
ACROSS 1 Colostomy, 6 Pirism,
9 Aisle, 10 Titration, 11 Millilitre,
12 Ret, 14 Ammeter,
15 Titrium, 17 Mastoid,
19 Ectopic, 20 Node,
22 Oviprotor, 25 Alexander,
26 Iesaq, 27 Epoxy,
28 Rooks'pawn
#218 Quick crossword
5 Eight
4. Oncilla
3 190 million
2 Gravity
11970 Quick quiz #372 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Solution
Block Universe
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There is a flourishing genre of content on YouTube and other video sites that can best be described as "gawping at real estate listings". It can be beautiful, spacious houses that most of us can only dream of living in, or baroque explosions of horrific taste in interior decoration on par with whatever has happened to the White House lately.
So far, Feedback hasn't been inclined to add to this content pile-up, but reporter Matthew Sparkes has lured us in with a listing on RightMove. It is for a building in Farnborough, England, on sale for £750,000. The listing has a link underneath the price that reads "Can you afford it?" Feedback didn't click because we don't need a website to tell us the answer.
The building is an upright white cylinder, with chunky extra bits on one side. The built area is about 1000 square metres. Feedback struggled to precisely count the rooms because the ground floor is partly open-plan, but there are at least 10 rooms on the ground floor and potentially around 20 on the floor above, though the top floor has a disappointingly scanty five.
Matt sarcastically described it as a "perfect family home", and Feedback concurs with his sarcasm. Only a family whose members don't enjoy each other's company could use a building like this.
Readers wondering what this is doing in Feedback, wonder no longer. This building is the former Farnborough Centrifuge, which was used, starting in 1955, to train pilots to cope with the intense g-forces required for high-velocity flight and, later, space travel. The main cylindrical building houses the centrifuge, while the drive motor and bearings are in the basement. Helen Sharman, the first UK astronaut, used the centrifuge. No wonder the estate agents describe it as "a unique opportunity to purchase a piece of British aviation history".
The Farnborough Centrifuge ceased operations in 2019, when a new and more modern centrifuge was built. It passed into the hands
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of a charity called the Farnborough Air Sciences Trust (FAST). However, in August 2024, FAST announced that it had been forced to close the centrifuge after the building's owner asked for "a five-fold increase in rental payment".
Two years later, it is up for sale. Does anyone have a spare £750,000 and fancy opening a museum? Feedback promises not to highlight it as unduly niche, because it actually sounds like somewhere we might go.
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The ingenuity of the UK civil service truly knows no bounds. Not only can it outsource many of its functions to private companies, but it can also translate quantum phenomena into the macroscopic world.
How else to explain the sign spotted by reader Robert Milne outside the Twickenham job centre? It reads “Automated external defibrillator located inside”. Presumably the defibrillator is in superposition both inside and outside the building. Robert wonders if the same is now true of his job: “Am I now allowed to be both in full-time paid employment and on the dole at the same time?”
Feedback is further minded to inquire how much use the defibrillator is to cardiovascularly challenged members of the public during the many hours of the day when the job centre is closed and the defibrillator locked away.
We also want to know in what sense the defibrillator is “automated”. Does it have an internal AI and robotic arm, so it can snake out of its container and zap unwitting jobseekers?
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Speaking of rogue Als, readers may recall the actions of Anthropic's Jacob Coxon, who on 9 September wrote: "I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below."
Feedback had a bit about this, but it was cut from a previous column because the editors said not enough people would get the reference. Feedback has reluctantly accepted the strong evidence, including book sales and talking to a normal person, that while many people have read J. R. R. Tolkien's fantasy novels The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings, far fewer have read his mythological epic The Silmarillion.
The Silmarillion is, we concede, pretty complicated. However, the essence is simple enough. There is a dark lord called Melkor. Melkor has a servant called Sauron, and they hang out in a fortress called Angband doing evil things. This includes creating the Urulóki, more commonly known as dragons.
A lot of tech bros appear to have read this, although Feedback isn't sure they have understood it fully. Famously, the surveillance company Palantir is named for the magical seeing-stones in The Lord of the Rings, a strong choice given that only two (speaking) characters make heavy use of the Palantir: one goes evil and the other sets himself on fire.
However, at least some readers of Tolkien do appear to have understood his works. Writing on Threads, a fan who goes simply by "bree" wrote the following, which seems to Feedback to cut to the heart of the matter: "I resigned from Angband today. I spent the last three centuries doing metaphysical research for both Sauron and Melkor. Neither dark lord is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to winged Urulóki and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below."



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📰 报刊故事还原:在标准的 60 分量表中。研究人员预先决定,如果生活方式建议在减轻抑郁方面的效果与认知行为疗法(CBT)的差距在 1.6 分以内,则认为两种方法的效果相当。
2026 诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·霍尔(Robert E. Hall)与迈克尔·伍德福德揭示了现代消费的核心规律:约 80% 拥有资产的家庭根据『对未来长期收入的预期』平稳消费;而底层 20% 缺乏储蓄的『月光家庭(Hand-to-mouth)』则完全受制于当期账单,解释了为何高通胀下美国会出现一边高端消费旺盛、一边底层生存焦虑的 K 型分化。
在标准的 60 分量表中。研究人员预先决定,如果生活方式建议在减轻抑郁方面的效果与认知行为疗法(CBT)的差距在 1.6 分以内,则认为两种方法的效果相当。